Some details on Grand Junction vacancies

Grand Junction's first-quarter vacancy rate of 11.8 percent is being driven by vacancies in 2bd/2ba apartments and 3bd apartments. In the first graph, we see that the first quarter's high vacancy rates in those units continues a trend that has been forming since 2010. On the other hand, vacancies  in 1 bedroom and 2bd/1ba apartments have been rather low.

Higher vacancy rates in the larger units during times of economic distress are common due to economizing on the part of renters. Also, in smaller, less urbanized markets such as Grand Junction, the larger units compete with single-family rental homes. What we find in Grand Junction is that as the labor force shrinks (as it has been doing) and employment growth his limited, renters seek smaller apartments. It is especially easy to cut one's rent by downgrading slightly from a 2bd/2ba to a 2bd/1ba, and we see that vacancies in 2bd/1ba have actually been declining in recent years. 

The big swing in vacancies down during 2011 (and then up again in 2012) was mirrored in other smaller markets as well, such as Greeley, and corresponds to the very low number of home sales that took place during 2011, among other factors. 

Not surprisingly, we see in the next graph, that recent declines in average rents in the area are being driven by declines in average rents in the 2bd/2ba and the 3 bedroom units. Average rents in the smaller units have held up well, but we see some big declines in rents in the larger units. 

One interesting aspect of the Grand Junction market is that the larger apartment buildings appear to be less popular. With the exception of the boom period, larger buildings in Grand Junction are consistently less popular than medium-sized and small buildings in the region. This is not the case in all similarly-sized markets. In Greeley, for example, larger building are more popular than smaller ones, historically speaking. In the next graph we do see that the first quarter's numbers in large buildings simply continue a trend that has been building since 2009. 

So, recent high vacancy rates in the region are certainly not the result of uniformly increasing vacancies across the region. Instead, we find that high vacancy rates are driven by larger units in larger building. Some of this is a result of renters attempting to economize, and some of it is due to the fact that larger units compete with single-family rentals that can provide more space at comparable prices.

Additional notes:

According to the Census Bureau, the maximum number of apartments in Mesa county is about 8,100. This includes condos as well, so the number of apartments is somewhere below 8,000, and is likely around 6,000. The sample size form the vacancy survey then is about 20 percent of total units.

There are about 62,000 total housing units in Mesa County.

Colorado foreclosure filings plummet 41 percent during first quarter

New foreclosure filings were down 41.3 percent in Colorado during the first quarter of 2013 compared to the same period of 2012. According to a report released today by the Colorado Division of Housing, there were 4,571 foreclosure filings reported during the first quarter of 2013, compared to 7,785 reported during the first quarter of last year.

Foreclosure auction sales, or completed foreclosures, also fell significantly, dropping 30.5 percent from 2012’s first-quarter total of 4,221 to this year’s first-quarter total of 2,935.

Both foreclosure filings totals and foreclosure auction sales totals were the lowest quarterly totals collected in any quarter since the Division of Housing began tracking quarterly totals in 2007.

“This is a large decline in foreclosure activity,” said Ryan McMaken, economist for the Colorado Division of Housing. “The trend downward is accelerating, helped along by low mortgage rates, rising home prices, and a stabilizing employment situation.”

All of the state’s twelve metropolitan counties reported year-over-year declines in both foreclosure filings totals and foreclosure auction sales totals for the first quarter of 2013. The counties with the largest declines in new foreclosure filigns were Douglas County and Mesa County with drops of 49.3 percent and 47.1 percent, respectively.

Only ten of the state’s 64 counties reported year-over-year increases in foreclosure filings, and they were smaller counties with fewer than 40 total foreclosure filings in each county.

When adjusted for population size, the counties with the highest foreclosure rates were all found outside the metropolitan areas. The top five counties for the proportion of homes that were in foreclosure were Gilpin, Custer, Archuleta, Grand and Park counties.

“40 percent drops in foreclosure filings were typical all along the Front Range this past quarter,” McMaken said. “The decline in foreclosures has been a statewide phenomenon so far this year.”

Foreclosure sales are opened foreclosures that have proceeded through the full foreclosure process to final sale at public auction. Filings denote the beginning of the foreclosure process, and once a foreclosure is filed, the borrower has at least 110-120 days to work with the lender to avoid a completed foreclosure. It is during this period that borrowers work with lenders and housing counselors to work out loan modifications, short sales, or other ways of withdrawing the foreclosure. 

News Digest, May 16

Fort Collins rental market eases, but not enough for many home seekers McGinnis and others face an unbearably tight rental market with few available units, pricier rents and more stringent qualifications. A new quarterly survey on multifamily housing vacancies and rents shows Fort Collins’ vacancy rate loosened from 2.5 percent for the fourth quarter last year to 5.5 percent while the average rent climbed to $1,037. The increased vacancy rate, caused by new units coming on line, belies the reality of higher rents and fewer units. The difficulty compounds itself the closer you get to the Colorado State University campus, where vacancy rates are at 0.3 percent in the northwest part of town and 0.7 percent in the northeast, both areas around CSU.

  Colorado foreclosure filings plummet 41 percent in the first quarter Foreclosure filings plummeted 41.3 percent during the first quarter of 2013 compared to the same period of 2012, the Colorado Division of Housing said Thursday. There were 4,571 foreclosure filings reported during the first quarter of 2013, compared to 7,785 reported during the first quarter of 2012. Foreclosure auction sales, or completed foreclosures, also fell significantly, dropping 30.5 percent from the 2012's first-quarter total of 4,221 to this year's first-quarter total of 2,935, according to the report.

  192 acres purchased at I-25 and Prospect Road FORT COLLINS - A Colorado Springs investment group has purchased 192 acres of undeveloped land at the northwest corner of the intersection of Interstate 25 and Prospect Road. The owner, a limited liability company called Fort Collins/I-25 Interchange Corner, plans to develop the property in accordance with its current zoning. Twenty-one acres are zoned for urban estate, 68.6 acres are zoned for low-density mixed-use, 60.9 acres for employment and 26.9 acres for commercial uses.

 Luxury home sales soar Luxury home sales skyrocketed in April, with sales of homes priced at $1 million or more rising almost 142 percent from April 2012, according to a report released today by independent broker Gary Bauer. “It was a record for luxury sales in April,” Bauer said. This 5,311-square-foot home in Cherry Hills Village sold for $2.78 million in April. Bauer also released two other reports for higher-end homes priced below $1 million, and found strong sales from homes priced from $500,000.

  More stores coming to First & Main Town Center in Colorado Springs Colorado Springs' biggest retail complex is getting even bigger. A nearly 12,000-square-foot, single-story retail building is under construction at the First & Main Town Center on the city's east side, with completion expected by Thanksgiving, said Fred Veitch, a vice president with Nor'wood Development Group of Colorado Springs, the center's developer.

Recent Grand Junction news

The Sentinel reports that:

Home sales in Mesa County plateaued in the first quarter of 2013, but a bump in the median sales price and a drop in foreclosure filings and sales suggest the real estate market is continuing…

Note the number of home sales in the county actually fell slightly year over year for the first quarter, dropping from 580 to 577.

Also,

Apartment vacancy rate up; rent payments down

The percent of vacant apartments in Grand Junction hit a more than three-year high in the first quarter of 2013, according to the Colorado Division of Housing.

New Development:

Golf villas capitalize on desire to live near Redlands Mesa course

There’s fresh activity and excitement at Redlands Mesa Golf Course community, where Zag Built recently completed a new sales office near the clubhouse. Zag Built also purchased seven lots from Brightstar Development, the owner of the golf course community, and is currently putting in the infrastructure for golf villas. “We’ve had tremendous interest,” said Mike Zagrzebski with Zag Built. “We expect to have them pre-sold prior to starting.” The infrastructure construction will be done in June, but the sales office has drawings and plans for the villas and is currently talking to prospective customers. All of the homes have three bedrooms and at least two baths and a three-car garage is an option for the lots that can accommodate them.

KRDO story on apartment vacancies in Pueblo

The most recent vacancy and rent survey for Pueblo shows a vacancy rate of 14.9 percent. This high rate appears to be driven by larger buildings in the northwest part of town. Other areas show lower vacancy rates.

KRDO TV recently produced a story on the topic:

PUEBLO, Colo. -Pueblo has one of the highest apartment vacancy rates in the state. According to the Colorado Division of Housing, in the first quarter of 2013, there was a 14.9 percent vacancy rate compared to 5.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012. 

Skyview Condominiums sits in northeast Pueblo. It's the area with the highest vacancy rate in the city. When Mickel Robinson and her husband took over the apartment complex two years ago, it was half full. Soon after, they evicted dozens of people who were causing trouble, which led to an increase in vacancies. 

"We tried to change the area around a little bit and the reputation that we had over here, so we had to actually clean house a little bit," Robinson said.
The apartment is making a comeback, but the complex is still 50 percent vacant. Robinson said she's offering incentives that include rent discounts to tenants who refer a friend to the apartment.

Student debt load in Colorado

As you might expect, a household's student debt load will impact the availability of funds for rent or mortgage payments. It can also impact credit scores.

The NY Fed recently broke down student debt load info by state.

Perhaps due to the fact that Colorado has a rather high proportion of college-educated residents, and is attractive to recent students from other states, Colorado is well above average for its share of consumers with student debt:

However, when it comes to average student debt per borrower, Colorado is below average:

When it comes to the percent of student loans that are 90-days delinquent, Colorado is about average: 

Here is the report. 

Grand Junction Housing Snapshot, 1st Q 2013

The demand for real estate continues to be soft in Grand Junction. From employment to foreclosures, and from home prices to apartment vacancies, the region appears to be facing some downward pressure on demand right now.

Employment is one of the biggest factors in driving demand for real estate, and we find that Grand Junction continues to face some headwinds. According to the Household Survey, the labor force size in March fell to a six-year low for March. That is, compared to previous years, the month of March in Grand Junction showed the smallest labor force in any March since 2007. This means fewer people are looking for jobs in the area, and this will have an impact on overall household income.

The unemployment rate is calculated using the labor force totals, and we find that the decline in the labor force is helping the unemployment rate move down in Grand Junction in spite of lackluster job growth. The labor force size as of March 2013 was down 7.3 percent, or 6,100 people from the March 2009 peak. We might compare this to metro Denver, where the job force hit an all-time high for March during 2013. We could also compare to the Greeley area where the labor force is near an all-time, after peaking for March (so far) last year. The first graph shows total labor force for each month:

The next graph shows total employment in the area. We can see here that employment growth has been  small, and that total employment is up only about 800 jobs (1.1 percent) from the 2010 trough over the past three years.  

According to this measure, total employment in Grand Junction is down 8.7 percent, or 6,700 jobs from the March peak in 2008 to March 2013. 

The Household survey has its limitations due to small sample size, so I've compared against the Establishment survey of payroll employees to check. The Establishment survey shows that Grand Junction employment in March was down 7.4 percent, or 4,700 jobs from the 2008 March peak.

The next graph shows the payroll employment, and here we find that the year-over-year growth rate in total employment has been declining since January. By contrast, statewide total year-over-year employment growth has been trending upward, with recent growth rates over 2.5 percent. In Grand Junction, growth rates have been below 2 percent in recent years. We could also note that the year-over-year growth in GJ has been smaller in recent years than during the recessionary period of 2002.

The next graph shows the House Price Index for GJ from the Federal Housing and Finance Agency. We can see that (through the end of 2012) the index has basically flatlined since 2011, and is way down from the bubble-like peak levels reached during 2007 and 2008. 

When compared year over year, as I've done in the next graph, we see that growth has been hard to find in the Grand Junction HPI. There has been only one quarter of YOY growth since 2008. I compare that in the graph to the metro Denver HPI which has shown four quarters in a row of growth. Indeed, during the fourth quarter of 2012, the HPI in GJ was down slightly (0.2 percent) from 2011's fourth quarter. 

Another indicator we can note is the index of completed foreclosures.  In the next graph, I've indexed the number of completed foreclosures in Mesa County next to the number of completed foreclosures in all metro counties combined. Here, we see that the combined metro total (the green line) shows a slow and steady decrease in completed foreclosures since 2008, while Mesa County completed foreclosures (the blue line) is way up from 2008 levels.  In fact, in all metros combined, the number of completed foreclosures is down more than 70 percent since 2008 (as of March 2013). In Mesa County, on the other hand, the number of completed foreclosures (as of March 2013) was up 350 percent since 2008, rising from 12 in January 2008 to 54 in March 2013. Compared year over year, the March total for completed foreclosures in Mesa County was down 27 percent, but that's not enough to bring totals down much from the highs at which they presently remain. 

 The next graph shows new housing permit activity in Mesa county. In this case, we find that total permits (both multifam and singlefam combined) at year-end 2012 were at the lowest rate seen since 1991, which is a 21-year low. There was a total of 323 singlfam permits and 12 multifam permits during 2012 in Mesa County. This is the lowest total yet since permits activity started moving down in 2007.

We can compare this to Colorado statewide, in which building permits hit a 5-year high during 2012, growing about 75 percent from 2011 to 2012. This is statewide: 

If we look just as the first three month of this year (in the next graph), compared to the first three months of previous years, we do find a small increase of 25 percent in Mesa County, and a rise to a five-year high. Of course, these totals remain well below even the relatively weak years of 2003 and 2004. If we compare to the same time period statewide, we find that statewide, singlefam permits were up 54 percent, and multifam permits were up 147 percent for the three-month period, when compared to 2012's first three months.

Finally, we look at the vacancy and rent data from the first quarter's vacancy and rent survey. Here we find that the vacancy rate hit 11.8 percent during the first quarter of 2013, rising from 10.4 percent during the first quarter of 2012. It was also way up from the fourth quarter's vacancy rate of 9.7 percent. The next graph shows vacancy rates since 1995: 

The softness in the rental market seems to reflect the overall softness we're finding in the region. As a result of the higher vacancies, rents headed down sharply during the first quarter of year, returning to levels not seen since 2006. We'll likely see the average rent number head back up again somewhat in the second quarter, but we should note that even at the first quarter average rent of $554 in the region (which was down 11.4 percent from last year's first quarter avg rent of $625), the average rent is still above what was common for the region prior to the oil and gas boom. Indeed, in spite of a relatively weak employment situation after 2009, the average rent in the region never fell very much from the elevated post-2006 levels. 

 The final graph shows the average rents in various regions adjusted for inflation. Rents tend to be fairly flat when adjusted for inflation over the long term. As we can see in the graph, however, real rent growth in Grand Junction from 2006 to early 2009 was really quite large, rising 12.3 percent in real terms from the third quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2009. Even after the unemployment rate in GJ rose above ten percent for most of 2010, the drop in the average rent was quite moderate. The drop during the first quarter of this year may signal a correction to that. It's too early to tell, however.

Referring back to the home price and foreclosure data, one might argue that the substitution effect should be pushing down vacancies, even in the face of a stagnant employment situation. That is, a lack of demand for purchase housing related to foreclosures and falling prices should be driving people into rental housing as a substitute. This is no doubt a factor, but in some recent regression analyses (discussed in part here), we found that the substitution effect was weak compared to the effects of employment. That is, when employment drove a rise in the demand for multifamily housing, it also drove a rise in the demand for singlefamily housing. So, employment is the dominant factor, and when it's weak, both multifamily and singlefamily experience soft demand. 

Housing News Digest, May 10

Greeley area’s rental market now tightest in the state It’s a good thing help is just around the corner. Greeley’s rental market area has become the tightest in the state, according to numbers released Thursday by the state Division of Housing. The Greeley market’s vacancy rate for the first three months of the year sank to 1.4 percent — from 5.8 percent at the same time the year before — reversing a trend that had for years kept Fort Collins’ market one of the tightest in the states, the state survey reported. New rentals having been constructed in recent months put Fort Collins at a rate of 5.5 percent, …

  Colorado apartment vacancy rate drops for 14th consecutive quarter Apartment vacancy rates statewide continue to slide, especially in the northern part of the state, where oil and gas development has driven rents higher and vacancy rates lower, according to a report released Thursday by the Colorado Division of Housing.

  Apartment vacancies rise in Fort Collins-Loveland The vacancy rate in the Fort Collins-Loveland area rose to 5.1 percent during 2013's first quarter, rising from 2012's first-quarter rate of 3.0 percent, according to the Colorado Division of Housing. In Greeley over the same period, the vacancy rate dropped to 1.4 percent from 5.8 percent.

  Colorado Springs apartments in high demand A strong demand for Colorado Springs apartments pushed the area's multi-family vacancy rate to its lowest level in almost 12 years during the first quarter, a report by the Colorado Division of Housing and the Apartment Association of Southern Colorado shows.

  Report: Springs apartment market strong The current Colorado Springs apartment market is healthy — maybe the healthiest it has ever been. That’s the conclusion by area experts after reviewing the most recent vacancy and rent survey results from the Colorado Division of Housing. Vacancy, at 5.6 percent, is the lowest locally in more than a decade. But it’s not so low that renters are crunched, said Ryan McMaken, an economist with the division of housing. “Healthy” should not be confused with normal, said Kevin McKenna, a Colorado Springs-based broker with the Denver office of Apartment Realty Advisors. “There’s no such thing as a typical apartment market in Colorado Springs,” McKenna said. “It’s always kind of all over the place.”

Apartment market tightens statewide as demand stalls in southern and western Colorado

The vacancy rate in Colorado apartments was down during the first quarter of 2013, with the statewide composite vacancy rate falling year over year to 4.9 percent from 2012’s first-quarter vacancy rate of 5.2 percent. According to a report released todayby the Colorado Division of Housing, the statewide vacancy rate during the first quarter also fell from 2012’s fourth-quarter rate of 5.2 percent. During the first quarter, the vacancy rate was down, year over year, for the fourteenth quarter in a row.

Vacancy rates varied considerably in different metros of the state, however, with northern Colorado and metro Denver showing some of the state’s lowest rates, while vacancy rates increased in southern Colorado and western Colorado.

The vacancy rate in the Fort Collins-Loveland area rose to 5.1 percent during 2013’s first quarter, rising from 2012’s first-quarter rate of 3.0 percent. In Greeley over the same period, the vacancy rate dropped to 1.4 percent from 5.8 percent. Colorado Springs also showed a declining vacancy rate with a first-quarter rate of 5.6 percent, which was the lowest vacancy rate reported in that region since 2001.  The metro Denver vacancy rate, measured last month in a separate survey, fell year over year from 4.9 percent to 4.6 percent

A different trend appeared in southern and western Colorado where vacancy rates increased. In Pueblo, the vacancy rate rose to 14.9 percent during 2013’s first quarter from 2012’s first-quarter rate of 5.9 percent. Over the same period, the vacancy rate in Grand Junction vacancy rate increased from 10.4 percent to 11.8 percent.

“So much of this is driven by employment right now. Vacancy tends to increase with joblessness, and we see this in Grand Junction and Pueblo” said Ryan McMaken, an economist with the Colorado Division of Housing. “The Pueblo unemployment rate has been over ten percent for more than a year, while the labor force in Grand Junction just hit a six-year low for March, with total employment moving sideways.”

The situation in northern Colorado, McMaken noted, is quite different.

“Oil and gas growth has pushed the vacancy rate down to very low levels in Greeley, while the Ft. Colliins and Loveland areas continue to see low vacancies,” McMaken said. “Rates in Larimer County are only as high as they are because the county has seen a fair amount of new multifamily development in recent years.”

The average rent increased in all metros except Grand Junction from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013. The statewide composite average rent increased 4.1 percent from $952 during 2012’s first quarter to $992 during the first quarter of 2013. The largest increase was found in Colorado Springs where the average rent rose 4.2 percent, year over year. The average rent fell 11.4 percent in Grand Junction, year over year.

Average rents in all metropolitan areas measured for the first quarter of 2013 were Colorado Springs; $787, Ft. Collins/Loveland, $1036; Grand Junction, $554; Greeley, $704; Pueblo, $594. The average rent in metro Denver, measured last month in a separate survey, was $992. 

A vacancy rate of 5 percent or below suggests a tight market. The statewide composite vacancy rate and average rent includes metro Denver.

New Private Activity Bond Workshops

DOLA/Division of Housing (DOH) and the Colorado Housing and Finance Authority (CHFA) are partnering again this year to bring you workshops on Private Activity Bonds. The State of Colorado has over $492 million of Private Activity Bond (PAB) tax-exempt bonding authority annually. Make sure that your community is taking full advantage of this valuable resource to provide rental housing, home ownership and small manufacturing opportunities. Walk out knowing where to get it, what to use it for and how to use it!

We will offer the same workshop content in two locations plus a webinar:

• Wednesday, June 12 in Colorado Springs
• Tuesday, June 25 in Brighton
• Wednesday, July 10 as a webinar

For more details, please see the brochure.

CoreLogic: Colorado home price index up 10.4 percent in March

CoreLogic today released its March home price index (HPI) numbers. There were few surprises as the HPI continued to show strong growth of around 10 percent for the third month in a row. National growth and Colorado growth rates were similar. Nationally, the index grew 10.5 percent from March 2012 to March 2013, and it grew 10.4 percent in Colorado. Housing prices continue to increase at some of the largest rates seen since before the financial crisis. 

Nine states had larger growth rates in the HPI than Colorado, with the highest growth rates being in Nevada, California, and Arizona. Nevada's HPI grew 22.2 percent year over year, and California's and Arizona 'a HPIs grew 17.2 percent and 16.8 percent respectively. Only five states showed declines in their HPIs over the same period with the largest declines being in delaware and Alabama where the HPI declined 3.7 percent and 3.1 percent respectively.

Propelled by record-low mortgage rates, home sales continue to head up with home prices following suit.

DSNews: Homeownership Rate Drops to 18-Year Low

As noted in our recent post on homeownership rates, homeownership has been declining in recent years for a variety of reasons. According to DSNews the national rate has fallen off considerably:

The number of households owning homes fell 698,000 to 74,511,000 in the first quarter, the first decline in almost two years, according to a Census Bureau report Tuesday. At the same time, the nation’s homeownership rate fell to 65 percent (seasonally adjusted), the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 1995.

See also: Tight Lending, Foreclosures to Prompt Homeownership Declines:

With the homeownership rate already at its lowest point since 1995, Capital Economics predicts further decline before a rebound occurs.

Colorado Springs rents grow as vacancy rates fall to 11-year low

The average rent in the Colorado Springs metro area rose year over year for the thirteenth quarter in a row during the first quarter of 2013, climbing 4.4 percent to $787. According to a report released today by the Colorado Division of Housing and the Apartment Association of Southern Colorado, the average rent for the region during the first quarter this year was up from $754 reported during the first quarter of 2012, and was down slightly from 2012’s fourth-quarter average rent of $790.

The median rent rose year over year to $760 during the first quarter, rising 4.4 percent from 2012’s first-quarter median rent of $728.

The average rent increased the most in the Northwest and Southeast regions, compared year over year for the first quarter, growing 8.6 percent in the Southeast region, and 17.9 percent in the Northwest region. The largest drop in average rent was found in the Security/Widefield/Fountain region where the average rent dropped 2.3 percent. The Northwest was the submarket with the highest average rent at $927 during the first quarter of 2013. During the same period, the lowest average rent was found in the Security/Widefield/Fountain submarket where the average rent was $601.

Average rents for all market areas were: Northwest, $927; Northeast, $731; Far Northeast, $860, Southeast, $701; Security/Widefield/Fountain, $601; Southwest, $802; Central, $746.

“The market has firmed up since the fourth quarter, with the rent level stable and the vacancy rate dropping to one of the lowest rates we’ve seen since the dot-com boom,” said Ryan McMaken, economist for the Colorado Division of Housing. “Year-over-year rent growth outpaced inflation during the first quarter, but a lot continues to depend on the employment situation in the region.”

The apartment vacancy rate in the Colorado Springs metro area fell year over year to 5.6 percent during the first quarter of 2013, rising from last year’s first-quarter vacancy rate of 6.4 percent. This year’s first-quarter rate also fell from last year’s fourth-quarter rate of 7.1 percent.

From the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013, the vacancy rate fell in the Northwest, Southeast, Southwest and Central submarkets. During the same period, the vacancy rate rose in the Northeast, Far Northeast and Security/Widefield/Fountain submarkets.

Vacancy rates for all market areas were: Northwest, 3.7 percent; Northeast, 5.6 percent; Far Northeast, 6.5 percent, Southeast, 7.3 percent; Security/Widefield/Fountain, 5.9 percent; Southwest, 4.5 percent; Central, 4.7 percent.

Homeownership rates in Colorado decline in 2012, early 2013

New data released late last month:

The homeownership rate declined during 2012 to a 14-year low, dropping to 65.3 percent. In 2011, the homeownership rate in Colorado was 65.9 percent. The last time it was lower than 2012's rate was during 1998 when the homeownership rate was 65.2 percent.  For the second year in a row, the Colorado homeownership rate fell below the national homeownership rate. The national homeownership rate was 65.4 percent during 2012 and 66.1 percent during 2011. The first graph shows national and Colorado homeownership rates since 1984:

Quarterly rates have been published since 2005. As of the first quarter of 2013, the homeownership rate in Colorado and in metro Denver fell on a quarterly basis to 63.7 percent in Colorado and 61.0 percent to metro Denver. During the first quarter of 2012, the Colorado rate was 64.5 percent and the metro Denver rate was 61.9 percent. The homeownership rates were also down when compared to the fourth quarter of 2012, with Colorado down from the fourth-quarter 2012 rate of 64.9 percent, and metro Denver down from the fourth-quarter 2012 rate of 61.7 percent. Both Colorado and metro Denver homeownership rates were below the national rate of 65 percent during the first quarter of 2013. The second graph shows the homeownership rate for each quarter since 2005. 

Clearly, the homeownership rate has been decreasing an all areas shown since at least 2005. The annual data suggests that the homeownership rate in Colorado peaked some time during 2003 and has been declining since.

Homeownership has declined partly due to foreclosures.  From 2007, through 2012, there were more than 125,000 completed foreclosures. Out of approximately 1.2 million owner households, that's a substantial number. On the other hand, we've seen the homeownership continue to decline even as foreclosures taper off. This is due to the fact that Colorado continues to see pretty sizable numbers in household formation (more than 20,000 households per year). A lot of those new households are renter households since, even in the low-mortgage-rate environment we're in right now, it can still be a challenge to afford a home and get a mortgage.

Consequently, Colorado and metro Denver show lower homeownership rates than the nation precisely because we continue to see in-migration and steady population growth while much of the nation is seeing less growth right now. Those areas with less growth may show a higher homeownership rate because they're attracting fewer young new residents who are not homeowners.

Nat'l personal income growth drops to 3-year low

Colorado's economy appears to be outpacing the national economy in a variety of indicators right now. Let's have a look at national personal income growth to check in on the nat'l scene. The BEA released some new numbers on personal income on Monday. The numbers show that year-over-year growth in personal income dropped to the smallest growth rate (2.5 percent) seen since the first quarter of 2010:

Measured quarter-to-quarter, the growth rate turned negative for the first time since the third quarter of 2009. The growth rate was neg 0.7 percent.

The overall personal income total measures income of all types. If we isolate the income the comes from compensation to employees, we find that compensation also dropped to an almost 3-year low (the lowest since the 2nd Q of 2010):

The growth in compensation was 2.8 percent , year over year. 

These are seasonally-adjusted annualized numbers.