Monday, May 21, 2012

Ft. Collins and metro Denver lead state's metros in employment

Total employment growth in Colorado in April continued to show growth statewide in the year-over-year comparisons. In April, total employment in Colorado was down 147,000 from the July 2008 peak. Employment trends in various regions of the state differ, however, so this article looks at which regions of the state have the highest unemployment rates, and which regions have recovered the most in their labor markets.

Regional employment trends can also provide us with some insights into local housing demand since, all things being equal, those areas with the most robust labor demand will also have the strongest demand for housing. This would be reflected in apartment vacancy rates and in median home price and home sales transactions, among other indicators.

The first graph compares unemployment rates in Colorado's metro areas.

The regional unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) for April 2012 are:
Colorado Springs, 9.2%
Denver-Aurora, 7.9%
Fort Collins-Loveland, 6.4%
Grand Junction, 9.1%
Greeley, 8.8%
Pueblo, 10.5%
Statewide, 8.0%

Since mid-2009, The Fort Collins-Loveland area has consistently shown one of the lowest unemployment rates while Grand Junction and Pueblo have generally shown the highest rates. during recent months,however, the unemployment rate in Grand Junction has fallen to the point where Greeley, Grand Junction, and Colorado Springs now all have similar unemployment rates near 9.0 percent.

Year over year, the unemployment rate increased in Colorado Springs and Pueblo. Total employment declined year over year in Colorado Springs, Greeley and Pueblo.  In spite of a decline in total employment, the unemployment rate declined in Greeley year over year, due to a drop in the labor force. 

The unemployment rate is a reflection of both the total number of employed persons and the total size of the labor force (as reflected in the Household Survey), so the unemployment rate can increase even in times of rising total employment if the size of the labor force increases as well.

Total employment did increase in the Ft. Collins area and in the Denver area, and it was essentially flat in Grand Junction. 

To provide some additional context, we can look to see how far below total employment levels are below the most recent peak in employment in each region. The peak time differs in each region. For example, the labor market peaked in mid-2007 in the Colorado Springs area, but it did not peak until late 2008 in the Grand Junction area.

The following numbers reflect how far below the most recent peak are the February 2012 employment totals:

Colorado Springs MSA, 7.9%
Denver-Aurora MSA, 4.9%
Fort Collins-Loveland MSA, 4.0%
Grand Junction MSA, 11.9%
Greeley MSA 4.2%
Pueblo MSA, 4.5%
Statewide, 5.5%

All things being equal, the areas further below the peak have recovered the least from initial job losses.

By far, Grand Junction remains the furthest below peak levels, with the Colorado Springs area also dipping almost 8 percent below the peak. We see here also that the Ft. Collins-Loveland area has one of the strongest markets. 

(Note: If we include the Boulder-Longmont MSA, we find that the Boulder area has consistently been among the areas with the lowest unemployment rate. In March 2012, the rate in the Boulder-Longmont area was 5.9%, and was down year over year.)