The presenting economists were: Anirban Basu, Kermit Baker and David Crowe.
Here's a quick list of observations and predictions from the presentations (which all refer to national trends):
- Financing is still a big problem for potential construction projects.
- Commercial construction feeds of residential construction, and residential construction has been slight, thus leading to less commercial construction.
- Growth in commercial construction usually comes in 18 months after GDP turns around but we're not seeing that this time.
- We're now seeing the lowest level of non-residential construction in 30 years.
- Commercial property values have recovered more than single-family, though.
- Forecast: Strengthening in 2013
- There are now signs of growth, but growth will be sluggish.
- Recovery in construction is slow by standards of other recessions.
- Worst year ever last year (2011) for home sales - according to one home builders index.
- Multifmaily index does show growth, the multifamily sector is doing much better .
- In new household formation, renter households are now becoming much more common than owner households.
- Jobs are an issueL: nationwide, we're still 5 million jobs below December 2007 levels.
- No industry has lost more jobs than construction
- The consensus that we'll see slight improvement this year, and acceleration next year - this could easily be challenged because signs of confidence are sparse.
- National construction employment has continued to deteriorate in recent months. "The trend is not positive."
- Input prices for construction (prices in construction materials) are down due mostly to decline in oil prices and decline in demand overseas.
- Materials and capital are not barriers, but lack of confidence is a problem.
- "Capital remains too scared" about future trends to begin major spending.
- We're 4 to 5 years away from a large portion of current renters drifting into homeownership.
- Current renters do plan to buy at some point
- But we're looking at several years before we see a decline in the current renter trend.
- A lot of the states that will suffer most (post election) are those states that depend the most on federal spending.
