Thursday, December 15, 2011

October multifamily: El Paso, Denver, Jefferson and Larimer counties dominate

During the first ten months of 2011, 87 percent of new multifamily permits issued have been issued in Larimer, Jefferson, Denver, and El Paso counties. Prior to June 2011, virtually all new permits had been issued in only Larimer, Denver and El Paso counties, but Jefferson County has recently issued permits for more than 500 new multifamily units. Arapahoe county issued multifamily units for the first time this year during September, with 188 new units permitted.

According to new multifamily permit data for Colorado counties, 3,305 multifamily permits have been issued from January through October of this year. 2,877 of them were issued in Larimer, Denver, Jefferson, and El Paso counties.

The remaining 428 permits were issued in Arapahoe, Mesa, Boulder and Douglas counties. No other county in the state reported any new multifamily permits issued so far this year.

For more historical info on multifamily permits, see here.

In the map below, we see that the geographic distribution of new multifamily permits.

Brown: More than 400 permits issued in 2011
Green: 100-399 permits issued in 2011
Yellow: fewer than 100 permits issued in 2011
White: no permits issued, or no data

Total multifamily permits issued, Jan-Sept 2011
Adams 0
Arapahoe 188
Boulder 103
Broomfield 0
Denver 1,262
Douglas 73
El Paso 657
Jefferson 504
Larimer 454
Mesa 64
Pueblo 0
Weld 0

With so little demand for new condominiums right now, it is safe to assume that the lopsided majority of new multifamily permits being issued are for rental housing. We see most of this activity in areas where vacancy rates have been tight or look to be tight for the near to mid-term.

With apartment vacancy rates headed below five percent in the Denver, Larimer and El Paso counties, the markets appear to be responding to tight vacancies with plans for future construction.

Year-over-year change:
The following show the year-over-year percent changes in new multifamily permits from January-October 2010 to the same period this year.

Adams -100%
Arapahoe -59%
Boulder -65%
Denver +242%
Douglas +386%
El Paso +9,285%
Jefferson +36%
Larimer +23%
Mesa +33%
Pueblo -100%

Pueblo County declined from 17 permits during the first nine months of last year, to zero permits during the same period this year. Adams declined from 27 permits to zero permits over the same period.