Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Realtor Data: January median prices fall

Median home prices for single-family homes during January 2012 fell in Colorado and in the Pikes Peak region and in the metro Denver area. According to median home price data for January, released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, the median home price for single-family homes in the Denver area was $221,373 during January, which is an decrease of 1 percent from January of 2011. Statewide, the median home price was $201,058 during January, a drop of 7 percent from the same month last year. The median price in the Pikes Peak region fell 5 percent, year over year, falling to $176,364 during January.

The first graph shows the median single-family home price for the state and for the metro Denver and Pikes Peak regions. Median home prices fell dramatically in all three measures following the financial crisis of late 2008, but moved back up quickly by mid-2009. Since mid-2009, however, median home prices have been largely flat in metro Denver. In the Pikes Peak region, on the other hand, the median price remains well below peak levels and was lower during most months of 2011 when compared to 2010. Statewide, as is typical, the median price has been more volatile, but has not recovered as much as the metro Denver median. Statewide, sales prices are likely being pushed down by declining markets in western Colorado and in the central mountains.

The metro Denver area, where the median price is 16 percent below its June 2007 peak levels, has recovered the most. Metro Denver prices appear to have stabilized since 2009 and the median price generally moves between 220K and 240K. The statewide median price is now 18 percent below its June 2006 peak. The Pikes Peak median price fell in January to 23 percent below its July 07 peak, falling below 180K. The Pikes Peak area's median price ranged between 181K and 197K during 2011.

During recent months, with the exception of metro Denver in November and December, the median prices appear to have entered negative territory when compared to the same months of the previous year. As can be seen in the second graph, the year-over-year changes in all three areas have been generally negative each month for the past six months, and all three areas were down during January 2012 when compared to January 2011.

This downward trend is mirrored in other home prices indices for Colorado such as the Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and FHFA indices. See here for past analyses using other indices.

The home price data provided by the Colorado Association of Realtors is based on home sales transactions that are listed in the MLS systems for each area and do not include for-sale-by-owner transactions or new homes sold directly by home builders.