Thursday, August 25, 2011

New 30-day delinquencies increase in Colorado

The National Mortgage Bankers Association released its 2011 second-quarter data Monday, and new 30-day mortgage delinquencies rose during the second quarter to the highest percentage recorded during the second quarter in at least five years.

2.59 percent of all mortgage loans surveyed were delinquent during the second quarter, falling from 2010's second-quarter rate of 2.51. The percentage of loans that are 30-days delinquent has not been above 2.59 percent since the fourth quarter of 2009 when 2.64 percent of all mortgage loans were 30-days delinquent.

Related post: Foreclosure inventory falls in Colorado during second quarter

2011's second quarter 30-day delinquency rate is the fifth-largest 30-day delinquency rate recorded since 2006 and is the highest second-quarter rate recorded during the same period. The 30-day delinquency rate increased from the first quarter of 2011 when the rate was 2.17 percent. This quarterly increase was expected since 30-day delinquencies generally increase from the first quarter to the second quarter.

In the graph below, the 30-day delinquency rate is broken out by year and by quarter. We can see that the 30-day delinquency rate is the highest it's been since 2009.

We also can note that the second quarter 30-day delinquency rate tends to be higher than the first quarter but slightly below the third quarter.

The second quarter's rise in 30-day delinquencies is a fairly significant jump from the first quarter's rate which was the lowest 30-day delinquency rate in 12 quarters.

The second graph shows a comparison between the Colorado 30-day delinquency rate and the national rate. We can see that the Colorado rate has been below the national rate in every year for which we have data. This isn't just true for the second quarter either. The Colorado 30-day delinquency rate is below the national rate in every quarter since at least as early as 2006.

During the second quarter of 2011, the national 30-day delinquency rate was 3.39, and it was 2.59 in Colorado. During the second quarter, Colorado had one of the lowest 30-day delinquency rates in the nation, with 39 states showing higher 30-day delinquency rates than Colorado.

60-day delinquencies also increased in Colorado. The 60-day delinquency rate grew from 0.88 percent during the second quarter of 2010, to 1.21 percent during the second quarter of 2011.

Note: The 30-day delinquency rate is helpful in analyzing foreclosure trends since unresolved 30-day delinquencies eventually become foreclosure filings. A rising 30-day delinquency rate could potentially signal rising foreclosure totals in the future. If the number of 30-day delinquencies fall, on the other hand, then foreclosure filings are likely to fall in subsequent quarters as well, all thing being equal.