Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Median single- fam home prices: Denver up, Colorado and Pikes Peak down

Median home prices for single-family homes fell in Colorado and in the Pikes Peak region, but rose in the state's two largest market areas. According to median home price data for November, released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, the median home price for single-family homes in the Denver area was $232,700 during, which is an increase of 1.9 percent from November of 2010. Statewide, the median home price was $211,300 during November, a drop of 2.1 percent from the same month last year. The median price in the Pikes Peak region fell 7.4 percent, year over year, falling to $185,300 during November.

The first graph shows the median single-family home price for the state and for the metro Denver and Pikes Peak regions. Median home prices fell dramatically in all three measures following the financial crisis of late 2008, but moved back up quickly by mid-2009. Since mid-2009, however, median home prices have been largely flat in metro Denver, but have shown a slight drift upward. In the pikes peak region, on the other hand, the median price remains well below peak levels, ranging from 15 percent to 20 percent in recent months. Statewide, as is typical, the median price has been more volatile, but has not recovered as much as the metro Denver median. Statewide, sales prices are likely being pushed down by declining markets in western Colorado and in the central mountains.

The metro Denver area, where the median price is 12 percent below its June 2007 peak levels, has recovered the most. Metro Denver prices appear to have stabilized since 2009 and the median price generally moves between 220K and 240K. Following an initial recovery in late 2009, the statewide median price has shown a largely downward trend since early 2010. The statewide median price is now 14 percent below its June 2006 peak, and fell below 200K during most months of the past year. The Pikes peak median price is 19 percent below its July 07 peak and has been generally flat since late 2009, moving between 180K and 200K.

During recent months, with the exception of metro Denver in November, the median prices appear to have entered negative territory when compared to the same months of the previous year. As can be seen in the second graph, the year-over-year changes in all three areas have been generally negative each month for the past six months.

This downward trend is mirrored in other home prices indices for Colorado such as the Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and FHFA indices. See here for past analyses using other indices. The year over year declines shown here tend to be larger than those of the other indices, and is likely due to differences in method.

The home price data provided by the Colorado Association of Realtors is based on home sales transactions that are listed in the MLS systems for each area and do not include for-sale-by-owner transactions or new homes sold directly by home builders.