Colorado Division of Housing

Housing News Digest, January 27

2012-01-27T08:47:00.000-08:00

Colorado contractors hopeful about 2012 construction
Colorado’s construction industry is looking at a brighter future in 2012 compared to the last few years, with hiring starting to pick up, according to survey results issued Monday by the Associated General Contractors of America .

The national association, which represents construction companies that work on roads and highways, got responses from 1,309 companies across the country, including 28 in Colorado.

Statewide mortgage payoffs lowest since 2000
Public trustees in Colorado released a total of 235,749 deed in 2011, down from 251,861 in 2010.

“The surprise really is that in spite of three years of declining interest rates, there hasn’t been activity,” McMaken said.

He said one explanation could be that most of the people who are eligible and qualified for refinancing probably did it in 2009 when rates first dropped. Of course, many people would not be qualified for refinancing today because real estate values have declined and they don’t have enough equity in their homes to get loans on the amount they owe.

Colorado new-home permits increase in 2011
Colorado home builders, for the second year in a row, pulled more permits than they did the year before.

Through November 2011, the state recorded 12,758 single-family and multifamily building permits, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That's a 10 percent increase from the 11,591 permits pulled in all of 2010.

New-home sales fall in December, capping dismal year

WASHINGTON • Fewer people bought new homes in December. The decline made 2011 the worst year for new-homes sales on records dating back nearly half a century.

The Commerce Department said Thursday new-home sales fell 2.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 307,000. The pace is less than half the 700,000 that economists say must be sold in a healthy economy

Luxury Home Prices Jump in Denver Metro Area, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Reports
Denver, CO, January 27, 2012 --(PR.com)-- Luxury home prices in the Denver Metro Area jumped 8 percent in December as the region’s high-end market remained strong at year-end, according to Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, Colorado’s leading provider of luxury real estate services.

The median sale price for a million-dollar-plus home reached $1.35 million last month, up 8 percent from a year ago when it stood at $1.25 million and 8.4 percent higher than November of 2011 when it was $1,245,000.

Bankruptcy filings fall 7.7 percent in 2011

2012-01-26T15:04:00.000-08:00

Bankruptcy filings in Colorado fell 7.7 percent in Colorado, falling from 32,509 during 2010 to 29,994 filings during 2011. According to new bankruptcy filing data, released yesterday by the U.S. District Court, from 2009 to 2010, filings increased 16 percent. 2011's bankruptcy total is the lowest annual total recorded since 2009 when filings totaled 27,997. 2011 also showed the largest annual drop since 2006.

In Colorado during December, total bankruptcy cases filed fell 11.9 percent, year over year, to 2,033 filings. During December 2010, 2,308 cases were filed. December 2011 was the eleventh month in a row in which bankruptcies declined year over year.

The first graph shows the year-over-year changes in bankruptcy case filings since January 2007:

The appearance of sustained declines in the year-over-year comparisons reinforces the likelihood that consumers are beginning to get a handle on debts now that almost four years have passed since the beginning of the national 2007-2009 recession.

In general, however, bankruptcy filings have grown since 2006 following the implementation of the 2005 Bankruptcy Act (discussed here). Bankruptcy filings totaled more than 43,000 during 2005.

The large spike in 2005 preceded the implementation of the new bankruptcy rules. Filings totals have now returned to the levels experienced just prior to the final run-up in cases in 2005, but are down from 2010, when bankruptcy cases appear to have reached a post-2006 peak.

Recent monthly bankruptcy totals are now on a level similar to what was experienced during much of 2003, during a non-recessionary period. Bankruptcies decreased from November to December, falling 7.4 percent. This drop appears to be due to seasonal factors.

Note: April tends to be a peak month for bankruptcy filings as people use their tax refunds to pay for bankruptcy attorneys and filing costs.

New home sales hit ten-year low for December 2011

2012-01-26T14:40:00.000-08:00

In December of this year, new single-family home sales fell in the US, and were down in the West region, which includes Colorado. According to new data released by the Census Bureau today, new home sales in December fell to the lowest December total recorded in at least ten years.

The report, which monitors sales activity for newly constructed houses, reported that in the West, new home sales were down 42 percent year over year, with 4,000 sales in December 2011, which was the lowest December total recorded in more than ten years. There were 7,000 sales during December 2010. Nationwide, sales fell 8.6 percent, falling from 23,000 to 21,000 during the same period.

In the West, no month has shown fewer than 4,000 new home sales for the region for any month during the past decade.

For the West region:

The second graph shows that new home sales continue to fall and have generally followed a downward trend since the middle of the decade.

New home sales peaked during the spring and summer of 2005 and have trended downward since. The number of new houses sold in the United States is down 89 percent since the peak of March 2005, and new home sales in the West have fallen 83 percent since sales peaked in the region during March 2004.

The third graph shows the declines in both US and regional totals in new homes for sale.

The number of new homes for sale has also fallen off considerably. The number of new houses for sale in the West has fallen 74 percent since the total peaked during June 2007, and the same total has fallen 72 percent in the US since the number of new homes for sale peaked in the US during August 2006.

At 34,000, the number of new single-family homes for sale in the West is near the lowest level it's been in more than ten years. No month has shown fewer than 33,000 new homes for sale during the past decade. This reflects very low demand in the face of an ongoing and large number of new foreclosures and low-priced properties in many areas of the West, including Colorado. Although foreclosures have fallen in Colorado in recent years, foreclosure rates remain near historic highs. The national total of new homes for sale during December set a new ten-year low of 156,000.

As a final note, we can also look to the new home inventory. In this case, we calculate inventory by subtracting the number of new home sales in a given month from the number of new homes for sale at the end of the previous month. In the final graph, we see that the inventory has essentially been flat since March 2011, hovering near 30,000 homes. There was an inventory of 29,000 homes during December 2011. This is good news for owners of existing homes seeking to sell homes since it suggests that fewer new homes are sitting and waiting to be sold, thus diminishing some of the inventory-driven downward pressure on prices.

Housing News Digest, January 26

2012-01-26T08:08:00.000-08:00

Mortgage loan payoffs fall in Springs area
Mortgage loan payoffs — technically referred to as a release of a deed of trust — take place after homes are sold, owners refinance or they complete their purchases by making their last mortgage payment. An increase in payoffs indicates an uptick in buying and selling and the ability of homeowners to qualify for a refinancing; a reduction points the opposite way.
In 2011, mortgage loan payoffs totaled 32,040 in the Springs and surrounding El Paso County, according to the Housing Division report released Wednesday. That was a 6.6 percent drop over the previous year and the lowest number since 30,187 in 2000, when the state began tracking releases of deeds.

Foreclosures keep pushing house prices lower
Foreclosure-related properties, which made up roughly one in five home sales in the third quarter of last year, sold for an average 34 percent less than homes that were not “distressed sales,” according to the latest data from RealtyTrac, a housing data research firm.

Foreclosures accounted for a smaller share of total sales as banks already glutted with properties slowed the pace of new seizures until they could unload the houses they already owned. The share of distressed sales also slowed last year following a slowdown in new foreclosures after consumer complaints and lawsuits challenging seizures that resulted from “robo-signing” and other questionable document practices

Manufactured-housing portfolio sells for $330 million
A 16-property, multistate manufactured-housing portfolio with nearly half of its sites in Colorado sold for $330 million, the brokers announced Wed- nesday.

ARA National Manufactured Housing Group said Chicago-based Hometown America sold the portfolio to the American Manufactured Communities REIT.

The Inn Between in Longmont makes a difference for homeless
LONGMONT — Some clients and staff at the Inn Between in Longmont say the nonprofit's 93-year-old main building is haunted by ghosts, but executive director Donna Lovatohttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif says it's angels at work and play.

U.S. December New Housing Sales Report
Sales of new single-family houses in December 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.2 percent (+/-13.2%)* below the revised November rate of 314,000 and is 7.3 percent (+/- 16.6%)* below the December 2010 estimate of 331,000.

Madigan Sues S&P For Role In Housing Market Meltdown
CHICAGO (STMW) – Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan has filed a lawsuit against Standard & Poor’s claiming the credit ratings agency fraudulently gave high ratings to risky mortgage-backed investments in the years prior to the 2008 housing market crash.

The suit, filed Wednesday in Cook County Circuit Court, alleged that S&P compromised its independence by giving its highest ratings to unworthy, risky investments as a corporate strategy to increase revenue and market share, a release from the AG’s office said.

Employment growth during December 2011 hits 5-year high

2012-01-25T10:26:00.000-08:00

Colorado gained 80,107 jobs in December 2011 compared to December of 2010, and the non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell year-over-year from 8.7 percent to 7.9 percent. According to the most recent employment data, collected through the Household Survey and released today by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, total employment in December, not seasonally adjusted, rose to 2.504 million jobs. There were also 63,000 more people in the work force during December, compared to December 2010.

The unemployment rate remained largely flat from November to December in spite of job gains due to a relatively large number of workers joining the labor force.

From December 2010 to December 2011, total employment rose 3.3 percent, while the labor force rose 2.3 percent. The total labor force in December included 2.72 million workers.

As can be seen in the second graph, total employment and total workforce size have decreased slightly, month-over-month, and have fallen for the past two months. Year over year, both total employment and the labor force rose together. However, both remain well below the July 2008 peak.

The employment total is now 128,000 jobs below the peak levels experienced during July 2008 when there were 2.63 million employed workers. Compared to the labor force peak in July 2008, the labor force is now down by more than 48,000 workers.

In the third graph is shown the year-over-year comparisons, by percent, for total employment. December 2011 was the sixth month in a row showing a positive year-over-year change in total employment. This followed 33 months in a row of negative job growth in year-over-year comparisons. At 3.3 percent, the year-over-year percent change in total employment was the largest gain since January 2007 and was at a 5-year high in December 2011. Between August 2008 and July 2011, no month posted a positive change in total employment when compared to the same month a year earlier.

The graph also shows the year-over-change in the labor force. Total labor force size rose from December 2010 to December 2011, and was the fourth time that the labor force has grown, year over year, since June 2009 . The labor force size had shrunk, year over year, for 26 months in a row from July 2009 to August 2011.

These numbers come from the Household Survey employment data, so the size of the workforce is dependent on the number of people stating that they are actively looking for work if not employed. Discouraged workers who have stopped looking for work are excluded. On the other hand, the Household Survey picks up on small business and start-up employment that may be missed by the Establishment Survey, the other commonly-used measure of employment.

Latest trends in mortgage loan repayments in Colorado

2012-01-25T09:28:00.000-08:00

Today, the Division of Housing released its 2011 year-end report on releases of deeds of trust. Since release activity reflects trends in home purchase and refinance activity they can help us identify some trends in demand for home loans.

The report notes that, in general, release activity responds to movements in the mortgage rate in ways very similar to that seen in mortgage refinance activity. For example, in the first chart, we see that there was a surge in release activity in 2003.

The first graph shows the quarter-to-quarter changes in the 30-yr fixed mortgage rate and in the number of releases. The quarterly data goes back to 2008. Release activity tends to move in the opposite direction of trends in the mortgage rate. In general, the blue line will move above zero following a period in which the green line is below zero. So, after growth in the mortgage rate turned negative during the 4th q of 2008, release activity moved above zero, topping out at a growth rate of more than 50 percent. In other words, a dip in the mortgage rate produced a surge in release activity. A similar phenomenon can then be seen again following the third quarter of 2010, and then again following the third quarter of 2011. Note, however, that the increase in release activity gets smaller after each period of declining mortgage rates. The effect of pushing down the mortgage rate appears to be diminishing when it comes to release activity.

The second graph shows the same measure, except on a year-to-year basis. Given the longer time period, in the annual data, there is not the lag we see in the quarterly data. A year that shows falling mortgage rates shows a rise in release activity, in most cases.

Note that 2001, 2002, and 2003 all showed drops in the mortgage rate, which was mirrored by significant increases in release activity. Mortgage rate growth then turned positive and release activity dropped. We then see mortgage rate growth turn negative again in 2008 and 2009 as the financial crisis became a factor. This produced a bump in release activity during 2009.

Note, however that in 2010 and 2011, the mortgage rate moved downward, but so did release activity, which is contrary to the usual trend, and suggests that further declines in the mortgage rate are not producing the usual surges in release activity.

See the full report here.

Economic Update: National Assoc. of Residential Property Managers

2012-01-25T09:24:00.001-08:00

For those at the NARPM meeting who wanted larger graphs, here are the slides for the economic update I presented to the Denver Chapter of the National Association of Residential Property Managers.

Mortgage loan payoffs fall in 2011, hit ten-year low

2012-01-25T07:51:00.000-08:00

The number of mortgage loans paid off in Colorado was down 6.4 percent during 2011 compared to 2010, although loan payoffs rose from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2011. According to a new report released today by the Colorado Division of Housing, public trustees in Colorado released a total of 235,749 deeds of trust during 2011, falling from 2010’s total of 251,861. Typically, a release of a deed of trust occurs when a real estate loan is paid off whether through refinance, sale of property or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan. Release activity declines as refinance and home-sale activity falls.

For the fourth quarter alone, the number of deeds of trust released this year fell 27.3 percent. Releases fell from 80,265 during 2010’s fourth quarter to 58,340 during the same period this year. On the other hand, releases rose from the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter, rising 15.5 percent from the third quarter’s total of 50,506.

“Real estate activity perked up a bit during the fourth quarter, which would reflect some very recent growth in employment and some mild increases in home prices.” said Ryan McMaken, spokesman for the Colorado Division of Housing. “But overall, the fourth quarter’s activity wasn’t enough to keep 2011 from being another flat year,”

According to the report, the number of deeds of trust released during 2011 was the smallest annual release total reported since the state began keeping release records in 2000. Release activity peaked during 2003 when there were 733,373 releases reported in the counties surveyed. The unusually large number of loan payoffs from 2002 through 2005 reflects a period of declining mortgage rates and increasing new home construction that led to a swift rise in home purchase activity and refinancing. From 2003 to 2011, however, loan payoffs fell 67 percent.

In spite of falling mortgage rates since 2008, loan payoff activity has fallen.

“Ten years ago, even a small decline in the mortgage rate would have produced quite a bit of new refinance and sales activity,” McMaken said. “But since 2008, tighter lending standards and a drop in the number of eligible buyers has prevented a sizable surge in new activity in spite of record-low rates.”

Trends in release activity varied by county. From 2010 to 2011, release totals fell in all counties surveyed except Douglas, Jefferson, Morgan, Park, Summit and Teller counties. All counties surveyed reported increases in activity from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2011. In general, the counties with higher real estate prices tended to report either increases in release activity, or smaller rates of decline. For example, from 2010 to 2011, some of the largest declines in release activity were found in Mesa, Pueblo, and Weld counties, which tend to have lower real estate prices than counties that reported increases such as Summit, Teller and Douglas Counties.

Totals for releases of deeds of trust are collected quarterly by the Colorado Division of Housing. This report tracks releases of deeds of trust as reported by public trustees in Colorado. The report includes twenty-one counties which are chosen based on population size and to ensure that as many regions of the state as possible are represented. More than 90 percent of all occupied households in Colorado are within the twenty-one counties chosen.

A deed of trust is similar to a mortgage and is a lien on real property to secure payment of an indebtedness. The deed of trust contains a grant of the property to the public trustee for the benefit of the holder. The deed of trust is released when the debt is paid in full.

Housing News Digest, January 25

2012-01-25T07:09:00.000-08:00

Mortgage loan payoffs hit 10-year low
The number of mortgage loans paid off in Colorado was down 6.4 percent in 2011 compared with 2010, according to a new report from the Colorado Division of Housing.

A total of 235,749 deeds of trust were released in 2011, falling from 2010's total of 251,861, the report states.

Typically, a release of a deed of trust occurs when a real estate loan is paid off, which can include a refinancing, a sale of the property or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan. Release activity declines as refinance and home-sale activity falls.

Read more: Mortgage loan payoffs hit 10-year low - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_19817386#ixzz1kU5AYnZX
Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

Survey Aims At Solving Homelessness
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. -- More than 70 volunteers, including 12 Fort Carson troops, gathered in Colorado Springs to conduct a survey of the homeless population in town. The survey was aimed at gathering a headcount of the homeless individuals as well as recording demographic information from that population.

The survey is conducted in compliance with requirements set forth by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Crowne Plaza hotel focus of court battle
One of the oldest and largest hotels in the Colorado Springs area, the Crowne Plaza, could end up in new management hands as the result of financial and legal battles.

The hotel’s owners, Stamford Real Estate (Colorado Springs) LLC and Harrell Colorado Operating Co. LLC, defaulted in July after failing to repay a $30.8 million loan used to buy and remodel the property. The 500-room hotel at 2886 S. Circle Drive remains open. But the default prompted Wells Fargo Bank to ask 4th Judicial District Judge Gregory Werner on Jan. 11 to name a Florida hotel executive as receiver for the property. Wells Fargo is trustee for a Boston-based trust that owns the loan.

Anxiety Mounts Over Maturing Real Estate Loans

Borrowers and lenders are starting to grapple with the billions of dollars in commercial real estate loans made during the boom year of 2007 that are coming due this year, in a greatly contracted economy.

Experts have warned of a rash of recapitalizations, refinancings and building sales. In New York City alone, nearly $70 billion worth of commercial mortgages that were bundled together and issued as collateral for bonds are maturing this year. Of those, $26 billion, or 37.4 percent, are five-year loans that were originated during the height of the real estate bubble, when underwriting standards were loosest, according to data from the research firm Trepp LLC.

Obama Answers Bernanke Plea With Refinancing Plan: Mortgages

President Barack Obama answered Ben S. Bernanke's appeal for more action to fix the U.S. housing market that's restraining the economic recovery by proposing a plan to help borrowers reduce their monthly mortgage payments.

Obama is sending Congress legislation that would allow homeowners to tap record-low borrowing costs, potentially boosting housing as he seeks re-election this year. The proposal could save participants about $3,000 a year, Obama said in his State of the Union speech to Congress.

NAR: Median home price in U.S. West declines, existing home sales fall

2012-01-20T09:59:00.000-08:00

The median home price in the West region of the U.S., which includes Colorado, rose 0.3 percent from December 2010 to December 2011. According to new existing home sales data, released today by the National Association of Realtors, the median home price rose only in the West region and fell in all other regions. The median price fell the most in the Midwest where it declined 7.9 percent from December 2010 to December 2011.

The first graph shows median home prices for all regions plus the U.S. The median home price in the West during the past six months has ranged from $191,000 to $208,000. The median price was $205,200 during December 2011, and during December of 2010, the median price for the region was $204,500.

Nationally, home prices fell 2.5 percent, year over year.

Note: The median home price numbers were not affected by the major revision in home sales data. As explained here, home sales numbers were recently revised downward by 14 percent by the National Association of Realtors. Past estimates of home sales had proven to overstate home sales in recent years. The revision attempts to re-benchmark the data to make it more accurate.

According to the revised data, home sales transactions (closings) fell 2.1 percent in the West region, while nationally, sales rose 1.4 percent during the same period. The West reported the only drop in home sales among all regions, falling from 95,000 during December 2010 to 93,000 during December 2011 (not seasonally adjusted). In the Midwest region, where sales rose the most, the year-over-year increase was 7.0 percent.

The second graph shows closings by region. All regions except the West showed a month-over-month increase from November to December. Sales fell 2.1 percent from November to December, while sales in the Midwest rose 11.8 percent.

Overall, December's sales activity was higher than was the case during December of last year, except in the West.

In the West, the recent price declines, broadly speaking, are in agreement with other home price indices such as CoreLogic, Case-Shiller, and the FHFA HPI which also show price declines. See here for more. However, these home price indices indicate that home prices are slowly flattening out and may turn slightly positive in coming months.

Conclusions: As can be seen in the first graph, home prices during recent months are down from where they were a year earlier, and the median price in the West is still below the annualized median prices for 2008, 2009 and 2010. However, December's median price in the West was above the 2011 annual median price, which was $201,300.

Housing News Digest, January 20

2012-01-20T08:02:00.000-08:00

Housing industry headed north
After five rough years for the construction industry and the housing market, small glimmers of hope arise from the ashes of the Great Recession.

With low interest rates, a housing glut and 448 homes sold last year, Teller County is experiencing the trickle-down effect of the nation’s housing market on the move. “If we continue to sell what we did last year, we’ll knock this housing situation down considerably,” said Carl Andersen, of Andersen Enterprises in Woodland Park. “Those are very encouraging numbers. So I do think Teller County is on the verge of a slow moderate recovery in the housing market.”

Grower Linked To Listeria Fined On Migrant Housing
The federal agency said Eric Jensen, owner of Jensen Farms, of Holly, rented migrant workers unsanitary, overcrowded rooms at a motel he owns. Inspectors said many rooms lacked beds, laundry facilities and smoke detectors. Jensen faces $4,250 in civil penalties.

The fine was not linked to the outbreak.

Housing authority will get $13K from town for project

The Windsor Housing Authority will receive $13,000 from the Town of Windsor with the possibility of more fee waivers to come.

During last Monday night's town board work session, board members said they'd like to see a resolution at the next regular meeting approving the WHA's request for $13,000 from the town to create organizational policies to enhance management operations and efficiencies.

Tough economy doesn’t stop Porter Homes
Circumstances, hard work and perhaps a bit of divine providence have led Nate Porter with Porter Homes down an interesting career path.

He came to Grand Junction as a baseball player for Mesa State College, as Colorado Mesa University was known in 1999. By the time he graduated in 2002, he was ready to take a break from education and told an acquaintance he wanted to build custom log homes.

Colorado Real Estate Commission pulls property manager’s license
The Colorado Real Estate Commission yanked the real estate license of a Fort Collins property manager after an investigation found the manager allegedly mishandled rent money owed to property owners, the Colorado Division of Real Estate said Thursday.

The commission voted unanimously to suspend the real estate license of Sherry Jefcoat, also known as Sherry Eichman. She runs Legend Real Estate Services LLC of Fort Collins.

Corelogic: Colorado home prices flat, Denver metro rises

2012-01-19T13:38:00.000-08:00

Home prices in Colorado fell 0.05 percent from November 2010 to November 2011, continuing a downward trend in home prices in Colorado and nationwide. Nevertheless, the degree to which home prices have declined has lessened each month for the past nine months. According to the November Home Price Index (HPI), released last week by CoreLogic, the year-over-year decline for Colorado was the smallest decline in 15 months, while the Denver metro area reported the first year-over-year increase in 18 months.

Nationally, the index fell 4.32 percent, and it rose 01.01 percent in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield metro area during the same period.

The first graph shows the year-over-year changes for the past 32 months in the US, Colorado and the Denver metro area. Over the past two years, the general trend in all three areas has been shaped by the home buyer tax credit, which was introduced in 2008 and expired in April 2010. Clearly, home prices climbed throughout the duration of the tax credit period, but declined after the credit's expiration.

During most months in the past two years, the Colorado and metro Denver HPI have performed better (from a property owner's perspective) than the national HPI. The national HPI has declined more than the local HPIs in each month since September 2010.

This data for November suggests that, although the year-over-year declines have lessened in magnitude, home prices have not yet turned around in Colorado as of November 2011. Metro Denver, on the other hand, has now shown a year-over-year increase. The Core-logic HPI for metro Denver is the first home price index among the major national indices that has shown a year over year increase for the region during the past 12 to 15 months. Local Realtor data, as well as the Case-Shiller data, all show that in year-over-year comparisons, home prices continue to fall when compared to the same month in the prior year. However, the Corelogic year-over-year changes are now close enough to zero to suggest that home prices are no longer declining, but are essentially flat in many markets.

New pending home sales data from NAR suggests some new strength in home sales transactions at the regional level in some areas, but in Colorado statewide, home sales activity through November remains about equal with 2009.

See the home price data archive for more.

Corelogic also provides one of the few publicly-available indices that looks at home prices in attached homes such as condos and townhomes. Among attached homes, home prices have fallen significantly more than is the case for all single-family properties. Although the combined single-family Colorado index fell by 0.05 percent, year-over-year for November, the same index for attached housing fell by 3.08 percent. In the metro Denver area, the index for attached homes fell 3.12 percent. As with the single-family combined index, the national rate of decline for attached homes - 4.32 percent - was larger than the Colorado and Denver metro rates.

And finally, Corelogic provides a look at home prices with distressed properties excluded.

With distressed properties excluded, home prices actually increased from November 2010 to November 2011, with the Colorado index rising 0.75 percent year over year. During the same period, the national index fell 0.6 percent and the metro Denver index rose 1.5 percent.

The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average of September, October and November (with November weighted the most) and is not seasonally adjusted.

Remodeling activity in U.S. West outpaces other regions in November

2012-01-19T12:40:00.000-08:00

Residential remodeling activity increased 33.4 percent in the Western U.S. from November 2010 to November 2011. According to the November 2011 Residential Buildfax Remodeling Index, released this week by BUILDERadius, The Western U.S. showed the largest rate of increase, by far, in its index for November 2011, outpacing all other regions and the U.S. as a whole.

According to Buildfax's November 2011 release:

In November, all regions except the northeast posted year-over-year gains. The West was up 43.7 points (43%) year-over-year while the Midwest was up 14 points (13%) year-over-year. The South was up 8.9 points (10.6%) year-over-year, and the Northeast was down 5.3 points (6.8%) year-over-year.

In the graph, we see that the year-over-year percent change in the western region has outpaced all other regions and the U.S. as a whole for the past six months. Growth rates have been solid in recent months. November 2011's year-over-year change was considerably larger than November 2010's year over year increase.

Overall, the report suggests substantial increases in the amount of residential remodeling activity in the economy. Often, remodeling activity reflects an availability of household capital for some construction and home-improvement activities while there may be an absence of the large amounts of household capital necessary for relocation and new home purchases. The solid increases in recent months suggest an increasing willingness on the part of homeowners to spend on remodeling. Home sales data, meanwhile, suggests that fewer buyers mare making the decision to actually purchase a new home.

The Buildfax press release states that the rise in remodeling activity in most of the nation reflects a national trend in which homeowners have been spending on remodeling as an alternative to home home purchases in a market in which it is difficult to sell one's home.

As we've seen in recent data for new home sales and housing starts, new home construction remains at historic lows. Many homeowners turn to remodeling projects, as is reflected in recent Buildfax reports.

The exception is the Northeast region, which has shown only slight growth and some declines in recent months.

As a supplement, I've included the second graph which shows the year-over-year change in the numeric value of the index by region.

About the BuildFax Remodeling Index

The BuildFax Remodeling Index is based on construction permits filed with local building departments across the country. The index tracks the number of properties permitted. The national and regional indexes all have an initial value of 100 set in April of 2004, are based on a three-month moving average, and are not seasonally adjusted.

Consumer prices in West up in December, topping post-recession December stats

2012-01-19T10:04:00.000-08:00

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released today the December CPI for US urban areas and regions. In the West region, from December 2010 to December 2011, the CPI increased 2.7 percent. This is an increase over the year-over-year increases for November during 2008, 2009 or 2010, during which the change in CPI never exceeded 2.1 percent.

In the first graph, we can see that the CPI growth in December 2011 was the largest annual change for December since 2007, prior to the financial crisis of 2008. 2004 through 2007 showed higher annual changes, reflecting much more robust economic growth during that period.

The price increases are being largely driven by transportation costs, such as gasoline. Transportation prices increased by 4.5 percent, year over year. Food costs and apparel also increased significantly, rising 4.1 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.

Housing prices were restrained at a year-over-year increase of 1.8 percent. Although increases in rent have exceeded 5 percent in many areas of the state, the housing component of CPI also reflects declining home prices, which indirectly mitigate the increases in rent levels within the index.

Recent price increases will impact household calculations and attitudes on spending as many households conclude that discretionary spending will need to be scaled back in the face of increasing food and transportation costs.

This in turn will have effects on home purchase activity as well. Note: In addition to the issue of disposable income is the issue of interest rates. Should the Federal Reserve conclude that inflation does need to be addressed, the resulting increase in interest rates would also push down home purchase activity. (Recent declines in the mortgage rate have not spurred large amounts or refinance or purchase activity, as noted in the Division of Housing's analysis of releases of deeds of trust.

Last Friday, CNBC reported that the Fed's FOMC is seriously considering more quantitative easing which could spur additional inflation.

The second graph shows year-over-year changes in CPI for all months since 2002. If current trends continue, CPI growth has generally stalled around 3 percent since March 2011

Nationally, the CPI was unchanged for the third month in a row:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Similar to last month, the energy index declined in December and offset increases in other indexes. The gasoline index declined for the third month in a row and the household energy index declined as well.The food index rose in December, with the index for food at home turning up after declining last month.

Housing starts in U.S. West flat, multifamily starts up slightly

2012-01-19T08:36:00.000-08:00

Housing starts in the West Census region of the US, which includes Colorado, were unchanged from a year earlier during December, counting both single-family and multi-family units. According to new housing construction and housing starts data released today by the US Census Bureau, there were approximately 8,700 housing units started in the West during December 2011. Of the new units started, 5,700 were single-family structures and 3,000 were structures containing more than one housing unit.

Nationally, housing starts rose 23 percent during the same period, with total housing starts rising to a total of 41,800.

Total housing starts remain well below peak levels both nationally and in the West. December 2011 housing starts in the West were 84 percent below the peak reached during May 2004. Nationally, December 2011 was 78 percent below peak levels. The national peak in housing starts was reached during May 2005.

Multifamily starts have rebounded more than single-family starts. In the West, single-family starts are 88 percent below peak levels while multifamily starts are only 70 percent below peak levels.

The West census region includes California, so given the size of the West census region, the fact that total housing starts are at 8,700 indicates that new home construction continues to be very light throughout the region. Housing starts totals ranging from 35,000 to 45,000 were common from 2004 to 2006.

The first graph shows the difference between single-family starts and starts for structures with more than one housing unit. Both remain near ten-year lows, and single-family starts fell 1.7 percent from December 2010 to December 2011. Starts for structures with more than one unit, however, increased by 3.4 percent during the same period, rising from 2,900 units during December 2010, to 3,000 units during December of this year. Given recent data showing strength in the demand for rental-housing, the housing starts data may suggest that developers of rental housing are beginning to move forward with construction of new multifamily structures. Nevertheless, the weakness in growth during December suggests that new starts in multifamily units continue to face headwinds.

The second graph shows month-by-month comparisons in housing starts for each year in the West. December's housing starts total was a 29 percent decrease from November. Nationally, the decline during the same period was 19 percent. These month-over-month declines produced gloom among industry representatives who took the declines to mean a lack of hoped-for growth in housing starts.

As can be seen in the second graph, December housing starts were tied for the second-lowest December total reported during the past decade, and was the lowest total reported since February 2011.

More sustained growth was visible in starts for structures with more than one housing unit. December was the fourth month in a row in which multifamily housing starts grew, year over year. As can be seen in the third graph, the December 2011 multifamily total for starts has exceeded the totals for both 2009 and 2010 but remains below every other December total since 2002.

This data suggests that multifamily starts have established a clear growth trend over the past several months, but that this will not proceed without some weak spots, as was seen during December. Single-family starts clearly continue to face obstacles to recovery.

Housing News Digest, January 19

2012-01-19T08:08:00.000-08:00

Ag housing was ‘worth the wait’
The grand opening of Alta Vista de la Montaña in North Delta last week culiminated four years of effort to provide safe, decent and affordable rental housing for agricultural workers in the area.

During the grand opening ceremony on Jan. 12, funding partner Jamie Spakow, USDA Rural Development, acknowledged the challenges in finding the right location, the right funding sources and the best development team for the project.

Housing starts fell in December, capping a grim year
U.S. housing starts fell in December as groundbreaking on rental properties posted a big decline, splashing some cold water on hopes the still-weak housing sector could boost economic growth this year.

The Commerce Department said Thursday housing starts fell 4.1 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts edging down to a 680,000-unit rate in December.

Pueblo, Fort Collins lead economic comeback in Colorado
Pueblo and Fort Collins — which suffered lighter job losses in the downturn than much of the rest of the state — are expected to be the first metro areas in Colorado to recover their lost jobs.

But it could take another three years before Denver and Colorado Springs do so, and Grand Junction may not regain peak employment until after 2017, according to a study released Wednesday by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

Mortgage rates hit another record low, housing struggles
WASHINGTON – The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage fell again this week to a record low. The eighth record low in a year is attracting few takers because most who can afford to buy or refinance have already done so.

Some real estate pros take aim at anti-piracy legislation
Think of all the shared information: multiple listing services, photos, videos. Can you verify the copyrights of all the content? One unknown copyright infringement, like finding a needle in a sky-high haystack, could mean your whole site being removed, blocked, if this legislation passes, critics say.

Dr. Jim Gaines, a researcher at Texas A&M's Real Estate Center, said that this legislation could have severe ramifications for the real estate industry. He mentioned possible data-sharing restrictions, like multiple listing service info on Craigslist, as an example.

Freddie Mac says the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dipped to 3.88% this week, down from the old record of 3.89% one week ago.

Housing May Turn the Corner in 2012: CoreLogic
CoreLogic’s chief economist Mark Fleming says housing statistics and the duration of the downturn to date indicate 2012 may be the year the housing market begins to turn the corner.

In the first release of CoreLogic’s new MarketPulse newsletter Wednesday, Fleming explained his rationale for such an assessment.

He notes that housing is an industry with long business cycles. Regional housing recessions have typically taken anywhere from three to five years to find their bottom, and Fleming says the national housing recession has behaved similarly in that it has bounced along a bottom for the past two years.

Year-end 2011 Housing Snapshot now available

2012-01-18T13:35:00.000-08:00

The statewide Housing Snapshot for year-end 2011 is available here.

At four pages, the Housing Snapshot is a very concise summary of recent housing trends. It's published 6 times a year to provide a quick snapshot of housing trends in Colorado for the non-expert.

Industry employment trends in Colorado since 2007

2012-01-18T10:05:00.000-08:00

New employment information for December will be available in early February. Before those numbers, come out, however, we can take a quick look at employment trends in various industries. These numbers are based on employment totals through November 2011.

Employment growth by industry is important because it can give us some idea of whether or not job growth is occurring in traditionally high-wage industries or low-wage industries.

In the first graph, one of the first things we notice is that jobs in the construction industry are down considerably over both the last three years and the last five years. Over the past five years, construction jobs in Colorado have declined by almost 36 percent, and they've dropped by more than 12 percent over the past three years. This change reflects a drop of about 60,000 jobs since 2007.

Mining and logging, on the other hand has shown a significant increase, but this industry is much smaller, and the 27 percent increase in jobs since 2009 reflects an increase of only 7,000 jobs. The construction industry now employs about 109,000 workers while mining and logging employs about 29,000 workers.

Two of the largest industries in the state, and two industries in which growth has been positive in recent years, are health care, and leisure and hospitality. Growth has been positive in both industries in both 3-year and 5-year time spans. Leisure and hospitality has added about 3,000 jobs since 2007 while health care has added about 26,000 jobs during the same period.

The second graph shows general trends in total employment in five industries since Janaury 2007. Construction and manufacturing are down while health care and leisure and hospitality are up. Retail trade has been largely flat.

The loss of so many jobs in construction, which has traditionally been an industry that provides relatively high wages to workers with limited educational levels, will likely have an overall negative impact on aggregate wages. At the same time, recent gains in leisure and retail jobs appear to be tapering off.

(These totals, from the Colorado Dept. of Labor and employment, are not seasonally adjusted.)

Colorado leisure and hospitality jobs recover, construction falls again

2012-01-18T09:14:00.000-08:00

According to November's employment data, released by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, overall employment in Colorado rose for the fifth month in a row in November. Thanks partially to continued declines in the labor force, the unemployment rate also fell to 7.8 percent.

At the Division of Housing, we keep an eye on industries that are often connected to affordable housing and real estate trends.

Today, we'll look at job creation in the following industries: construction, leisure and hospitality, and retail.

Construction is a key indicator since it is connected to housing production. The construction jobs examined below also include non-residential construction.

In the first chart, we can see that as of November 2011, construction jobs remain near the July 2011 low of 103,400 construction jobs. Construction jobs in November remain near October 2011's eight-month high, but remain well below peak levels. Since construction jobs peaked during July 2007, construction jobs have fallen 36 percent, or 62,000 jobs. Although November's totals were up month to month, totals were down compared to November of last year by 6,200 jobs.

Unlike many industries, construction jobs did not drop to an initial low and then rebound. Overall, total construction employment has continued to drop since 2007.

Retail jobs, and jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry are key factors in the rural resort economies, and are also important statewide as sources of income for low-income households. In the chart below, we see that retail jobs have recovered somewhat but have not returned to peak levels.

Leisure and hospitality jobs, on the other hand, have recovered to a significant degree since early 2010 and leisure jobs have now exceeded 2008's peak levels.

In leisure and hospitality, total jobs are now up 0.8 percent, or about 8,200 jobs, over the June 2008 peak. From November 2010 to November 2011, total jobs increased 3.7 percent, or about 10,000 jobs.

Retail jobs have not recovered as much as those in leisure and hospitality. From November of last year to November 2011, total employment in retail is up about 4,300 jobs. Since the April 2008 peak, retail jobs are down 7.6 percent, or about 17,500 jobs.

(Data is seasonally adjusted.)

Median single- fam home prices: Denver up, Colorado and Pikes Peak down

2012-01-18T08:23:00.000-08:00

Median home prices for single-family homes fell in Colorado and in the Pikes Peak region, but rose in the state's two largest market areas. According to median home price data for November, released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, the median home price for single-family homes in the Denver area was $232,700 during, which is an increase of 1.9 percent from November of 2010. Statewide, the median home price was $211,300 during November, a drop of 2.1 percent from the same month last year. The median price in the Pikes Peak region fell 7.4 percent, year over year, falling to $185,300 during November.

The first graph shows the median single-family home price for the state and for the metro Denver and Pikes Peak regions. Median home prices fell dramatically in all three measures following the financial crisis of late 2008, but moved back up quickly by mid-2009. Since mid-2009, however, median home prices have been largely flat in metro Denver, but have shown a slight drift upward. In the pikes peak region, on the other hand, the median price remains well below peak levels, ranging from 15 percent to 20 percent in recent months. Statewide, as is typical, the median price has been more volatile, but has not recovered as much as the metro Denver median. Statewide, sales prices are likely being pushed down by declining markets in western Colorado and in the central mountains.

The metro Denver area, where the median price is 12 percent below its June 2007 peak levels, has recovered the most. Metro Denver prices appear to have stabilized since 2009 and the median price generally moves between 220K and 240K. Following an initial recovery in late 2009, the statewide median price has shown a largely downward trend since early 2010. The statewide median price is now 14 percent below its June 2006 peak, and fell below 200K during most months of the past year. The Pikes peak median price is 19 percent below its July 07 peak and has been generally flat since late 2009, moving between 180K and 200K.

During recent months, with the exception of metro Denver in November, the median prices appear to have entered negative territory when compared to the same months of the previous year. As can be seen in the second graph, the year-over-year changes in all three areas have been generally negative each month for the past six months.

This downward trend is mirrored in other home prices indices for Colorado such as the Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and FHFA indices. See here for past analyses using other indices. The year over year declines shown here tend to be larger than those of the other indices, and is likely due to differences in method.

The home price data provided by the Colorado Association of Realtors is based on home sales transactions that are listed in the MLS systems for each area and do not include for-sale-by-owner transactions or new homes sold directly by home builders.

Housing News Digest, January 18

2012-01-18T07:52:00.000-08:00

Denver economy falters in global comparison
Denver – along with most other metro areas in the United States – fared poorly in a report ranking the world’s fastest-growing economies released today by the Brookings Institution .

The performance of the Denver-area’s economy was among the weakest, with a 0.9 percent drop in income since 2010 and a 0.5 percent increase in employment. That puts Denver at No. 174 on the Brookings Institution’s list of 200.

Bohemian grants 36 nonprofits $517,574
Pat Stryker's Bohemian Foundation awarded $517,574 to 36 nonprofits through its fall Pharos Fund Grant Round.

The 36 nonprofit organizations are all involved with helping improve the quality of education and well-being of children, teens and families and promote community engagement, the foundation said in a news release.

Housing sales expected to rise in 2012
According to local realtor Jean Wheaton of Re/Max properties in the Tri-Lakes area there were 429 single family homes sold in 2010 and 400 sold in 2011. This includes new and existing homes. The average price for a single family home was $379,907 in 2010 and $375,387 in 2011 with the average price per square foot decreasing slightly.

The overall sales in Colorado Springs are up 3.5 percent from last year. Additionally, the inventory of unsold homes dropped 25.5 percent in Colorado Springs to 3,255 which is only a five-month supply at the December sales rate.

Calpers to sell housing portfolio: report
Calpers, the biggest U.S. public pension fund, will sell the portfolio for $500 to $600 million, the Journal said, citing people familiar with the deal.

Calpers bought the property over the course of five years starting in 2002 and is likely suffering a loss of as much as 30 to 50 percent as the deal values each home site at no more than about $35,000, the Journal said.

National Apartment Vacancy To Dip Down to 5% by Year End
So says a 2012 National Apartment Report, which was released by Marcus & Millichap. Tight supply conditions exist, especially in metros with high barriers to entry, says the report. “Foreclosures in the single-family market, the inability of most Americans to meet mortgage financing requirements and households choosing rental housing for lifestyle reasons or employment mobility contributed to a net rise in apartments.”

Home sales totals turn positive in Colorado, metro Denver, Colorado Springs

2012-01-17T16:03:00.000-08:00

The number of single-family home sales closings increased again in November in metro Denver, the Pikes Peak Region, and statewide. According to home sales information released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, the number of single-family closings rose 11.6 percent in metro Denver during November, compared to November of last year. Over the same period, closings rose 13.6 percent statewide, and 19.1 percent in the Pikes Peak region. Statewide in November, there were 4,467 closings. 2,471 of them were in the metro Denver region and 646 occurred in the Pikes Peak region.

The number of closings in all three measures has increased, year over year, each month for the past five months.

This recent growth trend has also begun to show up in the 12-month moving averages used to track trends in home sales. The highly-cyclical nature of home sales trends makes it difficult to track multi-year trends in home sales. The addition of the homebuyer tax credits from 2008 to 2010 further complicated the picture. So, I have smoothed out the sales totals using a 12-month moving average for each month.

In the first graph, we see the moving average in home sales compared to year-over-year changes in the average for the metro Denver area. The trend in home sales closing has been downward since mid-2005 and accelerated in early 2009. From March 2008 until September 2011, every month showed a negative year-over-year change in home sales. In November, the year-over-year change was positive for the second time in 46 months, with an increase of 1.7 percent. As indicated by the moving averages themselves, overall home sales numbers have been generally flat since early 2009.

The second graph shows the same measurements for Colorado statewide. The year-over-year change in the statewide average for home sales turned positive in November for the second time in 14 months. Statewide, transactions moved into positive territory in response to the homebuyer tax credits that were were offered in 2009 and 2010, but moved into negative territory again after the expiration of the credits. The statewide moving average increased 3.7 percent in November, year over year.

The third graph shows the same measures for the Pikes Peak region. The homebuyer tax credit produced much larger changes in the regional trends in the Pikes Peak region than in metro Denver or statewide. The year over year change in November was positive, making it the first time in thirteen months that the year-over-year change in average sales has been positive. Excluding the run-up in home sales produced by the tax credit in 2009 and 2010, the average in home sales has been largely flat since mid-2009 in the Pikes Peak region, but has turned slightly upward in recent months.

The analysis of moving averages in home sales activity indicates that the markets continue to stabilize in metro Denver, the Pikes Peak region, and statewide. Overall activity has been flat since 2009, but recent upward trends suggest that sales activity will continue to build at least in the near term. Sales totals, however, are likely to continue to be well below peak levels for at least the next year.

Multifamily permits in Colorado up 110 percent through November 2011

2012-01-17T15:35:00.000-08:00

During the first eleven months of 2011 in Colorado, building permits issued for multifamily construction are up 110 percent, year over year, while permits issued for single-family construction are up 2.4 percent for the same period.

This year, through November, there have been 3,521 multifamily permits issued in Colorado, and 8,687 single-family permits issued. For the same period during 2010, there were 1,671 multi-family permits issued, and 8,477 single-family permits.

For the month of November alone, single-family permits are up, year-over-year, by 14.3 percent, and multi-family permits are up by 66 percent. There were 724 single-family permits and 186 multi-family permits issued during November 2011. There were 633 single-family permits and 112 multi-family permits issued during November 2010.

The second graph shows that overall, both multi-family and single-family permits in November were at levels below what were typical over the past decade, but that both are increasing.

During November, the number of new multi-family permits issued was up from November 2011, and was the highest November total reported in three years. 2011 overall has shown some significant growth in multi-family activity.

Growth in single-family permit activity suggests there is some hope among single-family homebuilders, but that demand is restrained. November's permit total for single-family units was at a 3-year high, although it remains well below typical November totals reported over the past decade.

Conclusions: This data further reinforces the notion that interest in new multifamily construction continues to increase at a much faster rate than interest in single-family construction.

Median condo and townhome prices flatten statewide and in Colo Springs area

2012-01-17T14:45:00.000-08:00

The median price for condos and townhomes in the metro Denver area increased 0.7 percent, year over year, in November of this year. According to home price information for condos and townhomes, released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, the median price in the region rose to $125,900 from last November's median price of $125,000. Statewide, the median price fell 8.18 percent, falling from November 2010's price of $136,600 to November 2011's price of $125,400. In the Pikes Peak region, the median price rose 0.8 percent to $127,500 during November, rising from November 2010's price of $126,400.

Condo and townhome prices remain well below peak median prices in each region. The statewide median price for condos and townhomes in November was down 46 percent from the March 2006 peak of $236,200. In metro Denver, the median price in November was down 22 percent from the July 06 peak of $163,300, and the Pikes Peak-area median price for condos and townhomes in November was down 21 percent from the September 2007 peak of $162,300.

The first graph shows the median home price in each area for each month since 2006.

Condo and townhome prices do not appear to have stabilized as single-family homes have, and median prices appear to be continuing a slow downward trend. The substantial declines in statewide median prices for condos and townhomes are likely being pushed downward by significant drops in median prices for condos and townhomes in many mountain regions following the 2008 financial crisis.

The second graph shows year over year changes in median home prices for condos and townhomes. The last two months have shown some very small increases in all three areas, although it remains to be seen whether these brief increases will become a trend. Until October 2011, all three areas had reported declines in the median home price every month since February 2011. The overall trend in home prices among condos and townhomes over the past year has been down, although the recent increase in metro Denver does point toward some added stability in the Denver metro market.

Condo and townhome sales in Colorado: statewide sales inch up, Colo Springs sales stall

2012-01-17T14:21:00.000-08:00

Condo and townhome sales in metro Denver and statewide increased, year over year, for the fifth month in a row in November. According to condo and townhome sales data released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, sales increased statewide 2.3 percent in November 2011 from the same month a year earlier. They increased 3.6 percent in metro Denver over the same period. In the Pikes Peak region, on the other hand, November sales decreased 30.9 percent. In November, there were 924 sales statewide. 600 of them were in metro Denver and 67 were in the Pikes Peak region.

This recent growth trend in statewide and metro Denver sales is now seen in the 12-month moving averages used to track trends in home sales. The highly-cyclical nature of home sales trends makes it difficult to track multi-year trends in home sales. The addition of the homebuyer tax credits from 2008 to 2010 further complicated the picture. So, I have smoothed out the sales totals using a 12-month moving average for each month.

The first graph shows the 12-month moving averages in total condo and townhome sales in metro Denver and statewide. The overall trends since 2007 is clearly downward, although average statewide sales have largely stabilized since late 2009. Until recently, the moving average for condo and townhome sales had continued to move downward through late 2010 and most of 2011, although there have been some gains in recent months. The moving average in statewide sales increased 2.2 percent while the metro Denver average fell 1.9 percent. Nevertheless, the metro Denver decrease was the smallest year-over-year drops since October 2010.

The second graph shows year-over-year changes in the 12-month condo and townhome sales average. We see increases during 2010 following the end of the homebuyer tax credit period. The year-over-year changes moved back into negative territory by early 2011, and the year-over-year change in the moving average, in both metro Denver and statewide, has remained negative for the past twelve months. The magnitude of the the decline for each month has lessened in both areas over the past five months. Statewide, the year-over-year change in the moving average in condo and townhome sales moved into positive territory for the first time in a year, although the annual change in metro Denver sales remained negative.

In the Pikes peak region, similar trends hold, although the homebuyer tax credits seem to have had a broader impact with the year over year change in sales remaining in positive territory for 15 months in a row. As can be seen in the third graph, sales activity has since declined. With a drop of 16 percent, November's year over year change was the largest decline reported since June 2009. This suggests that sales activity for condos and townhomes in the region continues to face headwinds.

Housing News Digest, January 17

2012-01-17T12:22:00.000-08:00

Construction underway at former Shady Acres site in Lafayette
Three months after the groundbreaking for Boulder County Housing Authority's 153-unit Josephine Commons senior and low-income housing project in Lafayette, work crews launched construction on a 120-unit senior housing development less than a half mile away.

Affinity at Lafayette -- originally dubbed Traditions at Lafayette -- broke ground in recent weeks at the former site of Shady Acres mobile home park on Baseline Road, just east of U.S. Highway 287.

The project -- spearheaded by the Inland Group, which is based in Spokane, Wash. -- is described as a senior independent living apartment community and is scheduled for completion in November.

Can China's Rich Solve America's Real Estate Problem?
China’s in the news this morning for economic growth that’s not as bad as investors expected. But one of the most interesting features of my recent trip to Hong Kong and Singapore — not in the news today — was the incredible economic power of outflowing Chinese capital.

Fitch: 'Mild' 2012 recovery for housing
Fitch Ratings said the foundation is in place for "mild" recovery for the U.S. housing sector, though the economy continues to temper a revival.

In a report released Tuesday, the ratings service said it expects existing home sales to grow 3% for 2012, with single-family housing starts and new home sales up 5% and 5.5%, respectively.

Vacant Foreclosures Saddle Local Communities With High Costs
Ten states saw vacancies go up by 70 percent or more, largely as a result of high foreclosure rates. Those with the largest increases over the last decade were Nevada (126 percent), Minnesota (100 percent), New Hampshire (99 percent), Arizona (92 percent), and Florida (90 percent). Georgia, Michigan, Colorado, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts also experienced increases above 70 percent.

The elevated number of vacant homes carries with it a hefty price tag for lenders that must resume ownership after foreclosure. GAO found that in 2010, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reimbursed servicers and vendors over $953 million for property maintenance costs.

FHFA: Home prices fall in all metro areas during 2011's third quarter

2012-01-17T10:22:00.000-08:00

The House Price Index (HPI) fell from the third quarter of 2010 to the same period this year in every Colorado metro area, including Boulder, Colorado Springs, Denver-Aurora, Fort Collins-Loveland, Grand Junction, Greeley and Pueblo.

The first quarter HPI data, released last month by the Federal Housing Finance Agency for hundreds of metropolitan areas nationwide, shows continued declines in home prices across Colorado.

Nationally and statewide, the HPI has also declined, with Colorado showing smaller declines that the nation overall. (See the analysis here.)

Year over year, the 1-year changes in each metro area were:
Boulder -1.6%
Colo Springs -5.0%
Denver-Aurora -2.7%
Fort Coll-Loveland -1.3%
Grand Junction -11%
Greeley -2.1%
Pueblo -6.14%

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in each region for each quarter. For the sake of visual clarity, the graph only shows data back to 2009.

Since the third quarter of 2008, the year-over-year changes have been generally negative. The graph also shows us that:

-Greeley has been the only area to show a year-over-year increase since the fourth quarter of 2010.

-Grand Junction has consistently shown the largest decreases in recent years.

-The Ft Collins-Loveland area has tended to show the smallest decreases in recent years.

The second graph shows the actual HPI values for each quarter going back to 2000. In general, the HPI began to plateau during 2007 and was declining in most areas by 2008. A big exception in the Grand Junction area which continued to increase rapidly well into 2008.

Since the peak period of the first quarter of 2007, the HPI has fallen in all regions. The following shows how far the house price index is below peak levels in each area.

Boulder -0.9
Colo Springs -10.7
Denver-Aurora -6.1
Fort Coll-Loveland -1.3
Grand Junction -25.5
Greeley -0.03
Pueblo -5.16

This report overall suggests that while there is a fair amount of price stability in many areas of Colorado, prices continue to fall. When compared with Case-Shiller and local Metrolist data, we can say that through the third quarter of 2011, and into the fourth quarter, weakness in demand for for-purchase housing persists, but that losses in value are diminishing in each new time period.

The index values presented and analyzed in this article are not seasonally adjusted. The data in this article is taken from the FHFA "all-transactions" data. The index is based on home price data obtained through the GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Zillow: Metro home prices in Colorado fall, except in Ft. Collins area

2012-01-17T09:34:00.001-08:00

More than half of local markets appreciated or remained flat month-over-month in November according to Zillow Real Estate Market Reports

Home values in the United States were essentially unchanged in November, decreasing a marginal 0.1 percent from October, according to this month's Zillow Real Estate Market Reports. Annually, the Zillow Home Value Index fell 4.6 percent from November 2010 to $147,800 and has returned to late 2003 levels.

Regionally, home values appreciated or remained flat from October to November in 60 percent of the 165 housing markets covered by Zillow, compared to 24 percent last year. Major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that experienced flat or increasing home values include Los Angeles, Washington, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., San Francisco and Detroit. On an annual basis, the median home value is down for nearly all (90 percent) of the 165 MSAs covered by Zillow, although the rate of annualized depreciation has slowed significantly in the majority of the markets.

In Colorado's metro areas, all areas except the Fort Collins metro area showed year-over-declines from November 2010 to November 2011. Grand Junction and Pueblo showed the largest drops while Boulder, Denver metro showed the smallest drops.

Greeley data was not included in the report.

Change from Nov 2010 to Nov 2011:
Boulder -0.1
Colo Springs -3.1
Denver metro -2.5
Ft. Collins +2.3
Grand Junct -8.9
Pueblo - 5.6

As can be seen in the graph, in recent years, home prices have shown the most stability in Boulder, Fort Collins and in Denver metro. These three areas also have the highest median estimated value, according to Zillow.

The Grand Junction area has showed the most bubble-like behavior in its run-up in prices in 2007 and 2008 before a significant decline over the past 2 years.

Zillow home valuations, known as the median "Zestimate valuation" should be taken with a grain of salt, but in this case they do appear to be in line with other home price indices and trends. The metro trends presented here match up well with the metro trends provided by FHFA's quarterly reports on home prices in Colorado.

LPS home price index: Denver home prices fall 1.9 percent in October

2012-01-16T13:33:00.000-08:00

According to the LPS Home Price Index for October, released last week, the average house price in the Denver area fell 1.9 percent from October 2010 to October 2011. The average price rose 0.3 percent from January 2011 to October 2011. The average house price in the Denver area during October 2011 was $220,000, which is the 11th-highest average price among the 25 cities surveyed. In Denver, the average price peaked during Jun of 2007.

Nationally, the average house price fell 4.8 percent form October 2010 to October 2011, dropping to $200,000. The average price fell 0.8 percent form January 2011 to October 2011. Nationally, the average house price peaked during June of 2006.

Six metro areas reported either gains or smaller declines than were reported in the Denver area, including Boston, Cincinnati, Detroit, Honolulu, Miammi and Pittsbugh. All other areas reported larger declines than Denver.

According to the LPs press release:

"'While Michigan continues to show notable improvements in home prices, with significant price increases each month this year, Georgia is emerging as the region with the greatest difficulty recovering from the home-price meltdown,' observed Kyle Lundstedt, managing director for LPS Applied Analytics."

This report shows few surprises when compared to other home price indices such as the FHFA's report and the Case-Shiller index. The Denver area continues to show more stability in prices than most metro areas surveyed and continues to show smaller declines in prices than the nation as a whole. A 1-year decline of 1.9 percent is similar to the price changes shown by the Case-Shiller index and the Corelogic index. In both, prices are largely flat, although have continued to show slight declines, year over year.

See here for the home price archives.

LPS Mortgage Monitor: Colorado has 5th-best loan delinquency rate in US

2012-01-16T13:15:00.000-08:00

According to the December 2011 report released last week by LPS Applied Analytics:

mortgage delinquencies at the end of November 2011 were nearly 25 percent less than the January 2010 peak, the trend toward fewer loans becoming delinquent, which dominated 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, appears to have halted. At the same time, new problem loans – those loans seriously delinquent as of the end of November that were current six months prior – have not improved significantly in the last year. This degree of stagnation indicates that while the situation is not getting markedly worse, it is not improving either, and inventories of troubled loans remain significantly higher than pre-crisis levels across the board.

(The December report includes data up through November.)

Nationally, the percentage of active mortgage loans that were non-current during November was 12.3 percent, which was down 6.4 percent from the same period last year.

In Colorado, the percentage of active mortgage loans that were non-current during November was 6.8 percent, which was down 11.7 from the same period last year. Colorado's year-over-year decline in non-current loans was the 8th largest in the nation. Only Nevada,Michigan, Arizona, California, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming showed larger declines.

Only five states reported lower percentages of non-current loans than Colorado, making Colorado 6th-best in the nation for the percentage of its mortgage loans that were non-current during November 2011. Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Alaska and North Dakota reported lower percentages of non-current loans during November.

LPS Mortgage Monitor is an in-depth report of mortgage industry performance. The monthly report is based on data from the company’s market-leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information, including more than 40 million active loans across the credit spectrum. This data is analyzed by LPS experts to produce more than 30 charts and graphs reflecting both trend and point-in-time performance observations.

Kansas City Fed: Real estate activity in district "sluggish"

2012-01-16T12:51:00.000-08:00

The Kansas City Fed released its Beige Book today for the Fed's tenth district which includes Colorado. In the District, residential and commercial real estate remained sluggish, in November and December while overall growth "expanded at a modest pace."

Manufacturing activity contracted, while transportation activity was flat.

Sections of interest:

Real Estate and Construction
Residential and commercial real estate activity remained sluggish in late November and December. District home prices were flat, but most real estate contacts expected prices to rise along with home sales over the next three months. Multiple contacts reported multi-family housing as a source of strength in the housing market. Mortgage lenders reported weak mortgage demand with fewer home purchases and refinancings relative to the previous survey period. Lenders cited stricter mortgage lending requirements as a key factor underlying weak loan demand. Housing starts declined further, and expectations about future construction activity remained subdued. Construction supply firms reported weak sales over the survey period, and most expected little change in activity over the coming months. Commercial real estate sales, prices, and vacancy rates improved, and District contacts were more optimistic about the coming months. Rents on commercial properties were stable and expected to rise over the next three months. Developers reported little change in access to credit.

Banking
Almost all bankers reported generally steady loan demand, stable or improving loan quality, and increased deposits. Loan demand by category was mixed. Most respondents reported steady loan demand for commercial and industrial loans, commercial and residential real estate loans, and consumer installment loans. Remaining respondents were split between stronger and weaker demand within each of these categories. Credit standards remained largely unchanged in all major loan categories and deposits increased for the eighth straight survey. Bankers generally reported loan quality as steady or improving compared to a year ago and reported the outlook for loan quality over the next six months as steady or improving.

Housing News Digest, January 16

2012-01-16T08:05:00.000-08:00

Net in-migration to Colorado from other states growing
The two couples are among the 31,195 people the U.S. Census Bureau estimates relocated last year to Colorado from other states, after subtracting out those who left. The figures don't include immigrants moving to the state from outside the U.S.

Colorado ranked fifth among states for domestic net migration, in total numbers, after Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Washington.

Peoples Mortgage buoyed by refinancings, better housing market

Peoples Mortgage Corp. has hired 150 people during the past three years as the Colorado Springs-based lender has expanded into the Boulder, Denver and Fort Collins areas and benefited from a wave of mortgage refinancing and slowly improving local housing market.

Mortgage lending by Peoples statewide more than doubled between 2009 and 2011 to 3,249 loans totaling $710 million with more than half of its loan volume coming from the Colorado Springs area and about 60 percent coming from homeowners refinancing mortgages to take advantage of low mortgage rates, Peoples CEO Steve Stingley said Friday.

Fannie, Freddie overhaul unlikely

An overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is unlikely again this year despite recent Republican efforts to move the issue up the agenda.

Congressional Republicans, along with some Democrats — and even GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich — are renewing calls to craft an agreement to reduce the involvement of Fannie and Freddie in the nation's mortgage market.

But without a broader accord, passage of any legislation this year is slim, housing experts say.

Fed to Weigh Further Easing Amid Doubts About Recovery
Federal Reserve officials are seriously considering giving the US economy—and especially the housing market—an added jolt with more quantitative easing.

Fed officials are likely to discuss such a move at their Jan. 24-25 meeting, when the central bank [cnbc explains] will issue its first quarterly forecast on interest rates under the new communication policy.

Job Opening: The Southwest Energy Efficiency Project

2012-01-13T15:36:00.000-08:00

Job Announcement
Communications Director

Description: The Southwest Energy Efficiency Project (SWEEP) is seeking a full-time Communications Director to be located in its Boulder, CO office. The responsibilities for this position include:

Ø Developing and implementing a multi-year communications strategy;

Ø Maintaining press lists and reaching out to the press on behalf of program staff;

Ø Writing and/or reviewing press releases, op-eds and other communications materials;

Ø Working with staff to develop messaging and implement targeted communications campaigns around priority issues;

Ø Helping to improve internal communications within the organization; and

Ø Expanding SWEEP’s presence and influence through social media.

The Communications Director will carry out these activities in conjunction with other SWEEP staff and our state representatives, as well as interaction with other energy efficiency communications experts. This is a great opportunity to work with a highly effective and experienced team of energy efficiency policy experts who have a solid track record of success in advancing energy conservation efforts in the Southwest.

Qualifications: Applicants should have at least seven years of communications experience ideally working for non-profit advocacy organization(s), as well as knowledge of energy efficiency/clean energy issues.

Compensation: Salary commensurate with experience, plus excellent benefits, as well as the opportunity to work in a relaxed environment close to the mountains in Boulder, CO.

Application Deadline: February 15, 2012.

To apply, send brief cover letter and resume (no phone calls, please) to:

Communications Director Opening
SWEEP
2334 North Broadway, Suite A
Boulder, CO 80304

Applications can also be submitted via email to info@swenergy.org

SWEEP is a public interest organization dedicated to advancing energy efficiency in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. For more information, visit www.swenergy.org.

SWEEP is an equal opportunity employer and is committed to a policy of nondiscrimination with regard to race, sex, color, age, religion, creed, class, sexual orientation, national origin, and disability.

Housing News Digest, January 13

2012-01-13T08:05:00.000-08:00

2011's foreclosure rate lowest since pre-recession
About 1.9 million homes entered the foreclosure process in 2011, the lowest level since 2007 when the recession began, according to a report Thursday by the foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc.

The firm cautioned that the decline does not necessarily indicate that the housing market is getting better, as many foreclosures have been delayed due to confusion over documentation and legal issues involved in the process.

Year-end local real estate round-up
GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. — In a nutshell, “up,” “up,” “lower” and “maybe” are the most simple, succinct terms to describe the local real estate market as a whole in 2011 as well as the fourth quarter.

This week, Bob Reece, president of Advanced Title Co., released his quarterly local real estate report and year-end wrap-up.

The first “up” is volume of homes sold in 2011 vs. 2010 — 3,083 in 2011 as opposed to 2,535 in 2010. Fourth quarter 2011 was also up over same period in 2010 — 760 vs. 622. Both comparisons amount to 22% increases in 2011 versus 2010.

Commercial real estate makes slight progress in 2011

Statistically, there were slight improvements in some sectors of the Colorado Springs commercial real estate market in 2011, a new report shows. Realistically, the market has a ways to go before it rebounds to where it was five to six years ago.

The combined vacancy rate for offices, shopping centers and industrial buildings — key commercial market sectors — dipped to 11.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, down nearly a full percentage point from a year earlier, according to the latest report by Paul Turner of Turner Commercial Research of Colorado Springs, which tracks the commercial market.

Little Alarm Shown at Fed At Dawn of Housing Bust
In his second meeting as chairman of the Federal Reserve in May 2006, Ben Bernanke heard a Fed governor warn about the nation's mortgage market. But Mr. Bernanke described the cooling of the housing boom as a "healthy thing."

"So far we are seeing, at worst, an orderly decline in the housing market," he said.

Housing News Digest, January 12

2012-01-12T09:35:00.000-08:00

Metrolist Launches Real Estate Website Designed to Make Finding Homes Easier for Coloradans

DENVER, CO, Jan 12, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Metrolist(R) has officially re-launched www.REColorado.com , a consumer-facing real estate search engine that's similar to search sites Trulia and Zillow but with more accurate and timely housing information, offering Colorado buyers, sellers and brokers an unrivalled ability to search for properties and open houses, find local real estate agents and coordinate home buying searches with a broker.

2011's foreclosure rate lowest since recession began
NEW YORK — About 1.9 million homes entered the foreclosure process in 2011, the lowest level since 2007 when the recession began, according to a report Thursday by the foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac.

The firm cautioned that the decline does not necessarily indicate that the housing market is getting better, as many foreclosures have been delayed due to confusion over documentation and legal issues involved in the process.

Grand opening planned for farmworker housing
Community Resources and Housing Development Corporation (CRHDC) will celebrate the opening of a new farmworker housing community in North Delta on Jan. 12. Alta Vista de la Montana will provide agricultural workers in the area with access to safe, decent, and affordable housing in proximity to where they work.

The building will be open for visits and touring from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 12, to mark the grand opening. Brief remarks will take place at 11:15 a.m. All festivities will take place at Alta Vista de la Montana, located at 7108 Highway 50. Please RSVP to Robin Wolff at robin@crhdc.org.

New REO Inventory in 2011 = 804,423 Homes
RealtyTrac’s year-end report released Thursday shows foreclosure filings – including default, auction, and bank repossession notices – were reported on 1,887,777 U.S. properties in 2011. Of that total, 804,423 homes were taken back by lenders as REO

FICO warns mortgage, student loan delinquencies may rise
Bank risk professionals believe Americans who are over leveraged on mortgage, student loan and credit card debt remain a risk to the broader economy, according to a FICO report.

FICO drew that conclusion from a fourth-quarter survey of bank risk professionals conducted by the Professional Risk Managers' International Association.

Housing News Digest, January 11

2012-01-11T08:06:00.000-08:00

Fannie Mae Chief Executive Michael J. Williams stepping down

Williams became head of the mortgage company in 2009, soon after mounting losses forced the company and its smaller rival, Freddie Mac, into government conservatorship.

ARA closes sale of 16-property manufactured housing community
Atlanta’s ARA recently closed the sale of a 16-property manufactured-home community portfolio containing 5,919 land-lease home sites, including several in Michigan.

The portfolio includes land-lease home sites in Michigan, Arizona, Colorado and Texas.

Housing regulator criticized on home loan banks

Reuters) - A government watchdog on Wednesday criticized the regulator of the U.S. Federal Home Loan Bank system, a collection of 12 government-chartered cooperatives that provide a source of mortgage funding, for not doing enough to monitor risks.

The inspector general for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the home loan banks, suggested FHFA had not been aggressive enough in reviewing "supervisory concerns."

Mortgage applications rise 4.5%

Mortgage applications edged up 4.5% last week when compared to a week earlier, an industry trade group said Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association released its market composite index, which shows applications up 4.5%.

Refinancing activity also grew with the refinance index increasing 3.3% from a week earlier. The purchase index also grew 8.1%, while the unadjusted purchase index is now 41.9% higher than last year.

Housing News Digest, January 10

2012-01-10T10:03:00.000-08:00

Urban Land Conservancy Closes Deal, Transitional Housing Services Continue Near Future East Rail Line

DENVER, Jan. 6, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- As part of an innovative real estate preservation model, Colorado Coalition for the Homeless (CCH) purchased from the Urban Land Conservancy (ULC) 1.7 acres near 40th and Colorado Boulevard for $1.425 million. The former Budget Motel referred to as Gateway, was purchased by ULC in 2006 at the request of CCH in order to provide transitional housing services to Denver's homeless families along high-frequency bus routes and the future East Rail Commuter Line of FasTracks.

White House wants to convert foreclosed houses to rentals
The Obama administration, in conjunction with federal regulators and led by the overseer of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are very close to announcing a pilot program to sell government-owned foreclosures in bulk to investors as rentals, according to administration officials.

There are currently about a quarter of a million foreclosed properties on the books of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and millions more are coming.

Apartment boom continues with Briargate proposal
Yet another apartment complex is being proposed for Colorado Springs, this one in the Briargate area on the city’s far northeast side by an Indiana development company.

It would be the seventh apartment project planned or started over the last several months, as falling vacancy rates, record-high rents and a lack of construction in recent years — among other factors — have combined to trigger a flurry of multi-family development in the Pikes Peak region.

Realtors get real about market, get out of game
Lori Garrison was not destined to be an aggressive salesperson.

She didn’t mind the hard work of being a real estate agent. But once the Grand Junction real estate market began a tailspin in late 2008, the work got harder. The rising number of short sales and foreclosures required a lot of paperwork, and both sides of the transaction rarely were satisfied with a home-price offer.

Besides being more difficult to make, the sales were spaced further and further apart as the number of buyers and sellers trailed off in the poor economy. Garrison left Bray Real Estate and went on a referral-only basis a year ago, then she deactivated her real estate license in October. She now works for the Colorado Department of Revenue.

Developer MacMillan leaves CSU to join Bohemian
Longtime Fort Collins developer Stuart MacMillan has left CSU's Research Foundation to become director of real estate at Pat Stryker's Bohemian Cos.

MacMillan spent much of his career at Everitt-MacMillan Development helping to develop some of the city's most notable buildings, including the Bohemian Cos.' Mitchell Building in Old Town.

Webinar: Using tax exempt bonds to finance nonprofit real estate projects

2012-01-03T10:29:00.000-08:00

501c3 Bonds Webinar

Using tax exempt bonds to finance nonprofit real estate projects

This 60-minute webinar will be presented by representatives from CHFA, Gates Capital Inc, and Sherman & Howard LLC on Thursday, February 2 from 9am to 10am. Click here to view the webinar flyer. The webinar will cover the basics of tax exempt financing for nonprofit 501c3 organizations. You will learn about:

Eligible uses for 501c3 bonds & identifying qualified projects
Process for issuing 501c3 bonds
Parties involved in these transactions
Pricing and structuring deals
Identifying tax and legal issues & an overview of the bond documents

To register for the webinar, email Alex Dempster at adempster@chfainfo.com before Tuesday, January 31. Instructions for logging in to the session will be emailed on that day. Participants will need an internet connection to view the presentation and a phone line to listen to the presentation.

Housing Digest, January 3

2012-01-03T08:23:00.000-08:00

Village at Crystal River would bring a modern commercial development to Carbondale
CARBONDALE, Colorado — If voters here preserve the recent governmental approvals of the Village at Crystal River project, they will be endorsing a development plan that dates back to 2008.

On Sept. 10 of that year, developer Rich Schierburg submitted his planned unit development (PUD) application to the town, kicking off what has, so far, been a contentious process of reviews and public hearings over the past three years.

Pro, con groups woo voters in Village at Crystal River debate
CARBONDALE, Colorado — Two groups are vying for voter support in the upcoming election on the Village at Crystal River (VCR) mixed-use development proposal.

Ballots for the special election are to be mailed out by Jan. 9, and are due back at the Garfield County Clerk's office by 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Jan. 31. Today is the last day for town residents to register to vote.

AG: Loan Co. Took $500K In Fees, Didn't Give Loans
DENVER -- A statewide grand jury has indicted Jill M. Evans, and her company, Paramount Mortgage of Colorado Ltd., on charges of defrauding more than a dozen people across the country out of thousands of dollars in fees for mortgages and loans she never delivered.

Construction spending increased 1.2 percent in November, led by gains in housing
WASHINGTON — Construction spending jumped in November as builders spent more on single-family homes, apartments and remodeling projects.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that spending on construction projects rose 1.2 percent in November, following a revised 0.2 percent drop in October. The increase was the third in four months and the largest since a 2.2 percent rise in August.

Economists Don't Foresee Home Price Appreciation Until After 2013
Home prices in the U.S. are expected to post a decline of 1.57 percent for the fourth quarter of 2011, after falling 0.4 percent through September, according to more than 100 economists and housing experts surveyed by Zillow.

Housing News Digest, December 30

2011-12-30T09:07:00.000-08:00

Foreclosure free ride: 3 years, no payments
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Delinquent borrowers facing foreclosure are learning that they can stay in their homes for years, as long as they're willing to put up a fight.

Among the tactics: Challenging the bank's actions, waiting to file paperwork right up until the deadline, requesting the lender dig up original paperwork or, in some extreme cases, declaring bankruptcy.

2011 was a good year for real estate market

Recent headlines about the national housing market certainly seem to be in conflict with one trumpeting "Good Signs for the Real Estate Market" and another "Home Prices Down in Most Cities." Or how about "New Home Construction Bounces Back - Soars 9.3 percent in November" versus "Home Sales Remain Weak."

And to add to the confusion, the National Association of Realtors just revised its annual home sales report knocking down annual sales 14.3 percent from 2007 through 2010.

PulteGroup offloads Colorado land assets
Homebuilder PulteGroup Inc. (PHM: 6.3701 +0.95%) sold Colorado land slated for 1,500 residences to private real estate investment firm Wheelock Street Capital LLC.

The move is part of an ongoing initiative to push for greater returns on its invested capital.

Colorado Crossing at standstill, but revival possible
Colorado Crossing, which became one of Colorado Springs’ biggest real estate busts in recent memory, remains a ghost town on the city’s north side after development of the 150-acre mixed-use project came to a halt three years ago.

However, various steps have been taken over the last several months in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Denver and in 4th Judicial District Court in Colorado Springs to position Colorado Crossing for a revival — although the project’s resurrection remains at least a year away at the earliest and it’s uncertain what direction it would take if work resumes.

HOW TO PLAY IT: Signs of life in the housing market
Recent reports paint a mixed picture. In a sign of renewed demand, sales of existing homes hit a one-and-a-half year high in November. Still, home prices have fallen for 13 consecutive months and any recovery would come from a very low level.

In the past there have been false signs that the worst of the housing bust had passed, but if housing is finally improving, it could be a boon for investors. Here are targeted real estate plays for the new year.

Housing News Digest, December 28

2011-12-28T08:34:00.000-08:00

La Plata County among areas seeing increase in older population
Liz Volz moved to Durango six years ago to take care of her mother and hasn’t left since. The 63-year-old is active and dabbles in nutritional consulting, bicycling and Buddhism. She lives in Cedar View Apartments, which provides subsidized housing to people 62 or older, and often gets help from La Plata County’s senior outreach nurse to fill out paperwork and find health-related resources.
Tom Royer checks in visitors to a Christmas luncheon at the Pine River Senior Center. As the population ages, many local officials say governmental budgets will have to be adjusted to meet their needs. And the adjustments that will need to be made might be bigger in Colorado because the state historically tended to have a younger population.

Briargate developer Lew Christensen dies at 75
Longtime Colorado Springs real estate developer and businessman Lew Christensen had many close friends after living in the city for 41 years. But he also had a relationship with the community that extended beyond the people he knew.

Through leadership roles with several business and civic groups, Christensen touched the lives of thousands in the Pikes Peak region as he sought to make it a better place to live and work, his friends say

Major Lenders Offering Perks on Short Sales
The nation’s leading mortgage lenders are extending extras for short sale transactions employed as an alternative to foreclosure – both in the form of monetary incentives for borrowers and streamlined procedures for real estate agents.

Trepp expects banks to face stronger headwinds in 2012
U.S. banks weathered huge storms in the past few years, but bigger risks lie ahead as benefits from releases on loan-loss reserves give way to a market environment where banks are forced to fight for new revenue and maintain profitability, Trepp said in its 2012 banking outlook report.

"Banks will earn less, putting 2012 a bit behind 2003 in terms of overall industry profitability," said the commercial real estate data analytics firm, which "does not expect 2012 to be a repeat of 2008, but there will be more disappointments than pleasant surprises in the new year."

$128,188 awarded in Jefferson County

2011-12-27T15:59:00.000-08:00

The Department of Local Affairs has announced that $128,188.00 in Housing Development Grant (HDG)funds has been awarded to Jefferson County for the following project:
The Jefferson Center for Mental Health (JCMH) was awarded a grant of $128,188 to rehabilitate Towers Apartments, which they purchased in October 2010. It has 12 units – 2 studios and 10 one bedroom apartments. These apartments will be available to people who receive services at JCMH and who have demonstrated their readiness for independent living. JCMH property management will provide building supervision, and JCMH case managers will support their consumers to ensure their success in this environment. Rehab work will include replacing the old boiler, updating bathrooms & the laundry room, replacing unit entry doors, landscaping (to correct drainage & fix the sprinkler system), and repairing common area stairs & flooring.

Case Shiller: Denver home price index in October at 10-year low

2011-12-27T09:02:00.001-08:00

Case-Shiller released its home price index for October today. The home price index for the Denver area fell 0.2 percent from September to October, and fell 0.9 percent,year over year, from October 2010 to October 2011. Prices fell in October due at least partially to seasonal factors, although the overall index for the year remains below the index values seen during 2010. As can be seen in the first graph below, home prices during 2011 did not match even the levels seen at seasonal peaks during 2009 and 2010.

According to S&P's press release, home prices are still facing headwinds:

And even though some of the annual rates are improving, 18 cities and both Composites are still negative. Nationally, home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.0% and the 20-City is down 3.4% compared to October 2010.

In the October data, the only good news is some improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices, with 14 of 20 cities and both Composites seeing their annual rates of change improve. The crisis low for the 10-City Composite was back in April 2009; whereas it was a more recent March 2011 for the 20-City Composite. The 10-City Composite is about 2.4% above its relative low, and the 20-City Composite is about 1.9%.

In year-over-year comparisons for October, Atlanta showed the largest drop, with a decline of 11.7 percent, while the index in Minneapolis fell 8.4 percent. Year over year, home price indices fell in 18 of the 20 cities included in the study. Only Washington, DC and Detroit showed increases.

The second chart shows trends in the Case-Shiller index for the Denver area and for the 20-city composite index. It is clear that Denver did not experience the kind of price bubble that occurred in many other metropolitan areas, and consequently, the index has not fallen nearly as far in Denver compared to the larger composite. Prices have been largely flat since mid-2009.

The 20-city composite is down 32 percent since it peaked in July 2006, but the Denver index is down only 10 percent from its August 2006 peak.

Nevertheless, the Denver index during October was at the lowest October value seen since 2002.

The third chart compares year-over-year changes in the Denver area index and in the 20-city composite. The Denver index did not achieve the rates of growth experienced by the national index, but the Denver index did not experience comparable rates of decline following the onset of the national recession either. Overall, the index has been less volatile in Denver than has been the case for the 20-city composite. However, year-over-year growth in the 20-city composite during October was negative with a decrease of 3.4 percent, and the Denver area index’s fall of 0.9 percent is the 16th month in a row in which the growth rate has been negative. In the 20-city index, the year-over-year change has been negative for the most recent 13 months.

The last chart provides a closer look at year-over-year changes in the Denver index. Note the the change has been below zero since June 2010, and likely reflects the end of the homebuyer tax credit’s end which has led to a fall in demand and a decline in the home price index. The upward trend in the index in response to the tax credit is clear during late 2009 and early 2010. Since the end of the credit, however, home prices have consistently drifted downward.

New home sales return to ten-year low in West during November

2011-12-27T08:59:00.000-08:00

In November of this year, new single-family home sales rose in the US, and were unchanged in the West region, which includes Colorado. However, according to new data released by the Census Bureau on Friday, new home sales in November were back at the lowest November total recorded in at least ten years.

The report, which monitors sales activity for newly constructed houses, reported that in the West, new home sales were flat year over year, with 4,000 sales in November 2011. There were 4,9000 sales during November 2010. Nationwide, sales rose 10 percent, increasing from 20,000 to 22,000 during the same period.

In the West, no month has shown fewer than 4,000 new home sales for the region during the past decade.

For the West region:

The second graph shows that new home sales continue to fall and have generally followed a downward trend since the middle of the decade.

New home sales peaked during the spring and summer of 2005 and have trended downward since. The number of new houses sold in the United States is down 82 percent since the peak of March 2005, and new home sales in the West have fallen 89 percent since sales peaked in the region during March 2004.

The third graph shows the declines in both US and regional totals in new homes for sale.

The number of new homes for sale has also fallen off considerably. The number of new houses for sale in the West has fallen 74 percent since the total peaked during June 2007, and the same total has fallen 72 percent in the US since the number of new homes for sale peaked in the US during August 2006.

At 34,000, the number of new single-family homes for sale in the West is near the lowest level it's been in more than ten years. No month has shown fewer than 33,000 new homes for sale during the past decade. This reflects very low demand in the face of an ongoing and large number of new foreclosures and low-priced properties in many areas of the West, including Colorado. Although foreclosures have fallen in Colorado in recent years, foreclosure rates remain near historic highs. The national total of new homes for sale is at a ten-year low of 158,000.

As a final note, we can also look to the new home inventory. In this case, we calculate inventory by subtracting the number of new home sales in a given month from the number of new homes for sale at the end of the previous month. In the final graph, we see that the inventory has essentially been flat since March 2011, hovering near 30,000 homes. This is good news for owners of existing homes seeking to sell homes since it suggests that fewer new homes are sitting and waiting to be sold, thus diminishing some of the inventory-driven downward pressure on prices.

Housing News Digest, December 27

2011-12-27T07:57:00.000-08:00

Real-estate developer Walter Koelbel Sr. dies
Colorado real-estate developer and philanthropist Walter A. Koelbel Sr. died Dec. 25. He was 85.

He had been ill with Alzheimer's disease for some time and died in hospice, his son, Walter "Buz" Koelbel Jr. said Monday.

Koelbel is credited with shaping commercial and residental real estate development in Colorado, beginning at the southern edges of Denver with Pinehurst Country Club, considered the first "master planned" residential-golf community in the Rocky Mountain West. In 1990, he bucked a national trend that favored walled-in residential developments with The Preserve at Greenwood Village, which included public trails leading to a 60-acre nature preserve at its center.

Personal income rises above 2008 peak
Colorado personal income rose 4.8 percent year-over-year.

The state's income growth surpassed that in the Rocky Mountain Region and in the country, where personal income levels rose 3.13 and 3.11 percent over their respective 2008 peaks.

Personal income figures do not account for inflation. However, the rate of inflation over the last 10 years was 23 percent, according to the Colorado Division of Housing blog, which means actual personal income growth is about half of the nominal income growth.

The Division of Housing reports that some of the personal income growth can be attributed to personal current transfer receipts, which does not include wages but does include payments from social security, unemployment insurance, Medicare and Medicaid.

US housing prices slipped in October
WASHINGTON — US home prices fell in October for the second straight month despite record-low home loan borrowing rates, a key index of the industry showed Tuesday.

Prices across 20 leading metropolitan areas fell on average by 0.6 percent from September, and were 3.4 percent lower than a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index.

Cracked Foundation Threatens U.S. Housing Recovery

The same is true of the housing market. Unfortunately, its foundation, the housing-finance system, still has big cracks in it. Until those are fixed, any hoped-for recovery may prove difficult to sustain.

Recent data, such as new-home starts and existing-home sales, have offered some glimmers of hope.

That isn't to say housing won't show signs of improvement. Recent data, such as new-home starts and existing-home sales, have offered some glimmers of hope. Tuesday's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller index for October is likely to show further slippage of prices. But the rate of decline in the index, which tracks home prices in 20 metropolitan areas, is expected to continue slowing, to less than 3% year over year. That trend, some economists expect, presages prices finding a floor in 2012.

Analysis: U.S. rental demand lifts housing sector
(Reuters) - Brian Keith is busier than ever as the architecture firm he works for rushes to wrap up work on a 300-unit apartment complex in Dallas.

The project is one of dozens the firm, JHP Architecture, has on its hands -- a surge of business driven by a rise in demand in the United States for rental properties.

The increased demand has forced JHP to expand, and it expects to keep hiring at least through the first quarter.

$25,000 CHDO grant awarded to Newsed in Denver County

2011-12-22T13:38:00.000-08:00

The Department of Local Affairs has announced that $25,000.00 in HOME CHDO Operating (HMCO) funds has been awarded to Denver County for the following project:
Newsed Community Development Corporation, Inc. has been awarded a CHDO Operating grant of $25,000 to assist with staff salaries for the pre-development work of an acquisition/ rehabilitation of a 16-unit property located
at 10th and Santa Fe.

$50,000 CHDO grant awarded to Renaissance Housing Dev. Corp.

2011-12-22T13:33:00.000-08:00

The Department of Local Affairs has announced that $50,000.00 in HOME CHDO Operating (HMCO) funds has been awarded to Denver County for the following project:
Renaissance Housing Development Corporation has been awarded a CHDO Operating grant of $50,000 to assist with staff salaries for the pre-development work of the supportive housing that is to be built above the Stout Street Health Center located at 21st and Broadway in Denver. The due diligence to be performed shall include permitting, lining up sources of financing and partnerships, and re-applying for tax credits. The proposed project is anticipated to produce 78 units of affordable and supportive housing, including units to be set-aside for homeless persons.

$50,000 CHDO grant awarded to The Villages in Larimer County

2011-12-22T13:31:00.000-08:00

The Department of Local Affairs has announced that $50,000.00 in HOME CHDO Operating (HMCO)funds has been awarded to Larimer County for the following project:

The Villages, Ltd. has been awarded a HOME CHDO operating grant in the amount of $50,000 to assist with staff salaries for the pre-development work for a permanent supportive housing development with 40 units in north Fort Collins. The Villages, Ltd. has met the CHDO certification requirements and submitted a business plan. They have entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Division of Housing that states they intend to use additional HOME funds to develop units of affordable housing within 24 months of the date of this agreement.

$32,000 CHDO grant awarded to Northeast Denver Housing Center

2011-12-22T13:29:00.000-08:00

The Department of Local Affairs has announced that $32,198.00 in HOME CHDO Operating (HMCO) funds has been awarded to Denver County for the following project:
Northeast Denver Housing Center, Inc. has been awarded a CHDO Operating grant of $32,198 to assist with staff salaries for the pre-development work of identifying two potential affordable housing development opportunities in Denver and Lakewood. The selected projects shall be an acquisition/ rehabilitation or the preservation of
affordable units in need of rehabilitation.

$20,000 CHDO grant awarded to Del Norte

2011-12-22T13:28:00.000-08:00

The Department of Local Affairs has announced that $20,000.00 in HOME CHDO Operating (HMCO) funds has been awarded to Denver County for the following project:
Del Norte Neighborhood Development Corporation has been awarded a CHDO Operating grant of $20,000 to assist with staff salaries for the pre-development work of the Avondale Apartments, 60 units of workforce housing that is to be built at 14th and Irving in Denver. The due diligence to be performed shall include permitting, lining up
sources of financing and partnerships, re-applying for tax credits, and coordinating the acquisition

$25,000 CHDO grant awarded to Hope Communities in Denver County

2011-12-22T13:24:00.000-08:00

The Department of Local Affairs has announced that $25,000.00 in HOME CHDO Operating (HMCO) funds has been awarded to Denver County for the following project:
Hope Communities, Inc. has been awarded a CHDO Operating grant of $25,000 to assist with staff salaries for the pre-development work for three options of transit oriented development (TOD) infill rental new construction in the Five Points area.

FHFA: Home prices in mountain region fall 5.4 percent in October

2011-12-22T11:25:00.001-08:00

House prices in October in the Mountain region, which includes Colorado, fell 5.4 percent, year-over-year. Nationally, the house price index fell 2.7 percent. The new house price index numbers, released yesterday by the Federal Housing and Finance Agency, also showed that the national index is down 18.9 percent from the peak level reached in June 2007, while the Mountain region's index is down 31.4 percent over the same period.

The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses purchased with loans that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. It is a repeat-sales index similar to the Case-Shiller index, but limited to GSE loans.

The decline in house prices reflects overall trends also found in other home price indices such as the CoreLogic index and the Case-Shiller index. According to FHFA, prices have largely stabilized over the past several months, but remain slightly down from 2009 and 2010 levels.

The second chart shows each month's house price index compared to the same month a year earlier:

We can note that the Mountain region has performed more poorly (from a seller's perspective) than the national index. This runs contrary to some local experience and some statistics. The Case-Shiller data for the Denver metro area, for example, shows that local prices did not decline as much as the national composite index following the financial panic in 2008. Also, the FHFA "expanded-data" index shows Colorado performing better than the national index.

Since we're looking at regional, data, however, we have to keep in mind that this data reflects house prices in Arizona and Nevada, and this no doubt will continue to put downward pressure on regional prices for now.

Nevertheless, the overall trend among most home price indices is one of slow downward movement in home prices. This trend includes Colorado statewide as well as the metro Denver area.

First-time unemployment claims in Colorado down 23 percent through November

2011-12-22T10:50:00.000-08:00

Mass layoff events fell 27 percent to 101 events during the first eleven months of 2011 in Colorado. There were 139 mass layoff events during the same period last year. According to a new report released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 16 mass layoff events during November 2011, which is down 5.8 percent from the 17 events reported during November of last year.

Monthly mass layoff events grew rapidly after October 2008 in Colorado, and have gradually lessened since early 2010.

Nationally, mass layoff events decreased 16 percent from 1,676 during November 2010 to 1,393 during November of this year.

In the year-to-date Colorado total through November, mass layoffs have now fallen two years in a row after peaking at 164 mass layoffs during the first eleven months of 2009. The second graph shows year-to-date totals through November since 2001:

Mass layoffs were rare from 2004 through most of 2008.

Overall, the most recent mass layoffs data suggests that the employment situation continues to stabilize. New layoffs continue to lessen, and as we've seen in the most recent employment data, November employment increased year over year for the fifth month in a row.

New claims for unemployment insurance

New claims for unemployment insurance in Colorado fell year over year by 1.5 percent to 1,358 in November 2011. There were 1,379 new claims during November of last year. New claims for unemployment insurance have also gradually fallen since early 2010. Nationally, new claims fell 19 percent from November 2010 to November 2011.

In year-to-date totals for new unemployment claims in Colorado through November, totals are down 23 percent year over year. There were 9,857 new claims during the first eleven months of 2011, compared to 12,951 new claims during the same period last year. In the year-to-date total through November, new claims for unemployment insurance have now fallen two years in a row after peaking at 14,483 claims during the first eleven months of 2009. The last graph shows year-to-date totals for November since 2001:

See the employment data archive for more on November's job creation.

The Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS) program collects reports on mass layoff actions that result in workers being separated from their jobs. Monthly mass layoff numbers are from establishments which have at least 50 initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) filed against them during a 5-week period. Extended mass layoff numbers (issued quarterly) are from a subset of such establishments—where private sector nonfarm employers indicate that 50 or more workers were separated from their jobs for at least 31 days.

Zillow: Denver set to lose 5.5 billion in value during 2011

2011-12-22T09:50:00.000-08:00

For what it's worth, here are Zillow's predictions for home valuations during 2011. Nationwide, home values are estimated to fall 681 billion in 2011, or 5.1 percent, year over year. In the Denver MSA, home values are predicted to fall 5.5 billion, or 2.9 percent, year over year.

Not surprisingly, the decline in Denver is expected to be smaller than the decline nationwide.

The largest decline in home values was found in Atlanta, GA where they dropped 14.7 percent, year over year. In Tampa, Chicago and Seattle, values dropped 10.7 percent, 10.4 and 9.4 percent, respectively.

According to today's press release from Zillow:

U.S. Homes Set to Lose Nearly $700 Billion in Value During 2011; Total Loss Smaller Than Prior Four Years

Nine Metros See 2011 Gains in Home Value, According to Zillow Real Estate Market Reports

U.S. homes are expected to lose more than $681 billion(i) in value during 2011, which is 35 percent less than the $1.1 trillion lost in 2010, according to analysis of recent Zillow Real Estate Market Reports.

The bulk of the total value lost during 2011 was in the first half of the year. From January to June, the U.S. housing market lost $454 billion. From July to December, Zillow projects residential home value losses will total a significantly lower $227 billion.

Regionally, only nine out of 128 markets showed gains in home values during 2011, with the New Orleans metropolitan statistical area (MSA) showing the largest gain of $3.5 billion. The Pittsburgh MSA was second on the list, with a gain of $2.7 billion.

"While homeowners suffered through another year of steep losses, the good news is that homes are losing value at a substantially slower pace as the market works its way towards the bottom," said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. "Compared to last year when we saw sharp declines following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credits, this year we saw some organic improvement in home values, in terms of a slowed depreciation rate which resulted in a smaller total value loss for the year."

Housing News Digest, December 22

2011-12-22T08:57:00.000-08:00

US homeowners cast doubt on loan ‘lifeline’

Over Christmas 2007, Jylly Jakes realised she could no longer make her mortgage payments. Eighteen months after losing her job as a corporate bond trader, she was out of options. “I called up my bank servicer [the institution entrusted with collecting mortgage payments] and asked for a six-month forbearance,” she says. The bank said no.

Ms Jakes found work at a boutique bond firm a few months later and offered to pay the missing five payments over 12 months and stay up-to-date on her mortgage. The bank said no again and began repossession proceedings.

Home Sales Drive KB Home's 4Q
KB Home (KBH) reported net income of $13.9 million or 18 cents per share in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 as opposed to $17.4 million or 23 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

However, excluding inventory impairments and land option contract abandonment charges of $2.3 million (non-cash) and an income tax benefit of $2.5 million, adjusted net income came in at $13.7 million or 18 cents per share, much higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a profit of 3 cents per share.

Cap rates key in valuing commercial real estate
Roughly four years ago, commercial real estate investments abruptly flatlined due in part to the collapse of the country’s capital markets.

The Great Recession halted lending on commercial real estate investments throughout the United States.

The FDIC tightened its grip on lending institutions, requiring them to either raise additional capital or dispose of non-performing commercial real estate assets.
In some cases, this meant disposition of actual performing assets, placing both investors and bankers in compromised positions.

U.S. Foreclosures May Delay Housing Rebound
The two-bedroom Denver row house that Kyle and Jennifer Zinth bought in 2005 is a tight fit now that they have an 18-month-old son, Max, and a coonhound named Beauregard. They plan to put it up for sale next month, hoping to at least break even so they can buy a larger home.

“My understanding is it’s a better time to buy than sell,” Kyle Zinth, 34, a paralegal, said in a telephone interview. “If we can get out of this one without financial harm and get a good deal on the next place, then that’s ideal under present market realities.”

Housing Slump Was Deeper
The housing slump was deeper than initially estimated but new data indicate that the worst of the downturn may have passed.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday it over-estimated home sales by 14.3% between 2007 and 2010, meaning that 2.9 million fewer homes sold during those years than thought earlier.

Bankruptcy filings in Colorado decrease for tenth month in a row

2011-12-21T16:13:00.000-08:00

In Colorado during November, total bankruptcy cases filed fell 10.7 percent, year over year, to 2,197 cases. During November 2010, 2,463 cases were filed. November was the tenth month in a row in which bankruptcies declined year over year.

The first graph shows the year-over-year changes in bankruptcy case filings since January 2007:

The appearance of sustained declines in the year-over-year comparisons reinforces the likelihood that consumers are beginning to get a handle on debts now that almost four years have passed since the beginning of the national 2007-2009 recession.

In general, however, bankruptcy filings have grown since 2006 following the implementation of the 2005 Bankruptcy Act (discussed here).

The large spike in 2005 preceded the implementation of the new bankruptcy rules. Filings totals have now returned to the levels experienced just prior to the final run-up in cases in 2005, but are down from 2010, when bankruptcy cases appear to have reached a post-2006 peak.

Recent monthly bankruptcy totals are now on a level similar to what was experienced during several months of 2003 and 2004, during a non-recessionary period. Bankruptcies decreased from October to November, falling 11 percent. This drop appears to be due to seasonal factors.

Note: April tends to be a peak month for bankruptcy filings as people use their tax refunds to pay for bankruptcy attorneys and filing costs.

NAR: Median home price in west falls 8.4 percent

2011-12-21T15:36:00.000-08:00

Home prices in the West region of the U.S., which includes Colorado, fell 8.4 percent from November 2010 to November 2011. According to new existing home sales data, released today by the National Association of Realtors, the median home price fell more in the West than in any other region. The median home price in the Northeast, for example, fell 0.1 percent from November 2010 to November 2011.

The first graph shows median home prices for all regions plus the U.S. The median home price in the West during the past six months has ranged from $191,000 to $208,000. The median price was $195,300 during November 2011, and during November of 2010, the median price for the region was $213,100.

Nationally, home prices fell 3.5 percent, year over year.

Note: The median home price numbers were not affected by the major revision in home sales data. As explained here, home sales numbers were recently revised downward by 14 percent by the National Association of Realtors. Past estimates of home sales had proven to overstate home sales in recent years. The revision attempts to re-benchmark the data to make it more accurate.

According to the revised data, home sales transactions (closings) rose 11.8 percent in the West region, which was close to the national year-over-year change of 10.9 percent. The West reported the largest increase in home sales of all regions, increasing from 85,000 during November 2010 to 95,000 during November 2011 (not seasonally adjusted).

The second graph shows closings by region. In general, closings increased each month from January 2011 to June 2011. July's total fell unexpectedly, but rebounded in August, and then declined again in September. Sales are now expected to decline each month until next January due to seasonal factors. While all regions except the west showed a month-over-month decrease from October to November, all regions showed increases in the year-over-year comparisons for November.

Overall, November's sales activity was higher than was the case during November of last year. This was expected. During the summer of 2010, sales activity fell significantly following the end of the home buyer tax credits. Many homeowners rushed to close their home sales by June 2010 in order to take advantage of the tax credit. Consequently, the second half of 2010 showed diminished home sales activity.

The recent price declines, broadly speaking, are in agreement with other home price indices such as CoreLogic, Case-Shiller, and the FHFA HPI which also show price declines. See here for more.

Conclusions: As can be seen in the first graph, home prices during recent months are down from where they were a year earlier, and the median price in the West is still below the annualized median prices for 2008, 2009 and 2010. The region shows stability in prices and a lack of significant upward pressure in prices right now.

Corelogic: 5-month supply of shadow inventory remains

2011-12-21T14:04:00.000-08:00

Corelogic released its October 2011 report on shadow inventory. Separate data for Colorado was not provided in the publicly-available report.

According to the report:

As of October 2011, shadow inventory remained at 1.6 million units, or 5-months’ supply and represented half of the 3 million properties currently seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or in REO.

Of the 1.6 million properties currently in the shadow inventory (Figures 1 and 2), 770,000 units are seriously delinquent (2.5-months’ supply), 430,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (1.4-months’ supply) and 370,000 are already in REO (1.2-months’ supply).

Florida, California and Illinois account for more than a third of the shadow inventory. The top six states, which would also include New York, Texas and New Jersey, account for half of the shadow inventory.

DEADLINE EXTENDED: Upcoming workshop: Advanced Finance Academy

2011-12-21T08:37:00.000-08:00

The registration deadline has been extended to December 30.

The Colorado Department of Local Affairs/Division of Housing is pleased to announce the presentation of its workshop, the Advanced Finance Academy. It will be held on January 18th and 19th, 2012 in the Community Room at Volunteers of America at 2660 Larimer Street in Denver. We will have expert panelists on hand to answer your questions on financing your projects during this time of changing economic conditions.

This is a 2-day workshop and it is mandatory that you attend Day 1 in order to attend Day 2. The workshop is a "hands-on" use of the computer spreadsheets used by the Division of Housing in its funding application process. You will need to bring a laptop computer with you in order to participate in the class. We will provide you a CD with the spreadsheets preloaded onto it which you will be able to take home with you.

Lunch will be provided on Day 1. Lunch on Day 2 will be on your own. The registration fee is $75.00 and must be paid by check payable to the Colorado Division of Housing. Registrations are due by December 16th and class size is limited to 24 participants.

Parking for the workshop is available on the streets for free and is not time-restricted. Please do not park in the lot behind the building since that is reserved for VOA staff and their clients.

The deadline has been extended to December 30, 2011. Please see the attached brochure/registration form for more detailed information on the workshop and how to register, or call Antoinette Johns (303-866-5657) or Denise Selders (303-866-4650) if you have any questions.

See here for the full brochure.

Housing News Digest, December 21

2011-12-21T08:32:00.000-08:00

No Relief for Homeowners Shut Out by U.S.
Marc and Emily De La Torre would love to lower their mortgage bills to offset the costs of raising their 3-month-old baby. Instead, they’re among millions of Americans left out as the government tries again to make refinancing possible for borrowers with little or no equity.

The couple bought their Bonney Lake, Washington, property in July 2009, two months too late to be eligible for the federal Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP. Blocked from conventional refinancing after the house fell in value, the De La Torres can’t take advantage of record-low loan rates that have been a boon for other homeowners.

Homeless US families find little to cheer at Christmas
Across the frozen plains of Colorado it is bitingly cold at this time of year. The temperature is often below zero on most days.

In the state's capital, Denver, America's new homeless venture out into the bitter evening air, victims of an economic downturn that started during the last presidential election year in 2008 and will continue into the 2012 election cycle.

Angelo McWilliams is one of those joining the new ranks of the homeless in Denver. A single father of three children, he has just joined the record numbers of Americans who face a bleak Christmas as the impact of the economic downturn filters through to the country's poorest citizens.

Former Agilent property sold to Cumberland & Western
LOVELAND - The City of Loveland has closed on its deal to sell the former Agilent property to Bowling Green, Ky.-based developer Cumberland & Western for $5 million.

The City purchased the 300-acre property from Agilent for $5.5 million over the summer with intent to sell 170 acres of the campus with five buildings for redevelopment. The City of Loveland retains 130 undeveloped acres adjacent to the Big Thompson River and city recreation trail as open space, and also retains 144 shares of water rights

Boulder, Denver economically advantaged
Richard Florida, the “Creative Class” guru who has long been admired by Gov. John Hickenlooper and others, has created an economic rating system that ranks Boulder and Denver in the nation’s top 20 cities as being economically advantaged.

Boulder ranked No. 8 and the Denver-Aurora area was 17th, on the new index, which examined 360 metropolitan statistical areas across the country.

Of the top 20, 15 of them were on either the West or East coasts. In other words, Colorado claimed two of the five spots between the coasts.

Real Estate conference coming to Denver
Denver will host NAREE’s 46th Annual Real Estate Journalism Conference from June 20-23 at the Brown Palace Hotel & Spa in downtown.

The Brown Palace and adjoining Comfort Inn will be the site of a real estate convention next June.

The four-day conference, titled A Mile High Recovery? is NAREE’s ”Ultimate News Conference” and is designed to draw writers, editors, authors and the nation’s leading real estate analysts and experts to focus on new trends in residential and commercial real estate and home and urban design.

Home sales during housing bust worse than thought
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Existing home sales during the housing bust were actually 14.3% worse than previously reported, a revision to Realtors' group numbers shows.

On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revised home sale counts back to 2007 due to flaws in their original data analysis.

Regional employment: metro-areas improve in Colorado

2011-12-20T15:56:00.000-08:00

Total employment in Colorado in November was up for the fifth month in a row in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, total employment in Colorado was down 117,000 from the July 2008 peak. Employment trends in various regions of the state differ, however, so this article looks at which regions of the state have the highest unemployment rates, and which regions have recovered the most in their labor markets.

Regional employment trends can also provide us with some insights into local housing demand since, all things being equal, those areas with the most robust labor demand will also have the strongest demand for housing. This would be reflected in apartment vacancy rates and in median home price and home sales transactions, among other indicators.

The first graph compares unemployment rates in Colorado's metro areas.

The regional unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) for November 2011 are:
Colorado Springs, 8.7%
Denver-Aurora, 7.9%
Fort Collins-Loveland, 6.2%
Grand Junction, 8.5%
Greeley, 8.7%
Pueblo, 9.6%
Statewide, 7.8%

Since mid-2009, The Fort Collins-Loveland area has consistently shown one of the lowest unemployment rates while Grand Junction and Pueblo have generally shown the highest rates.

Year over year, the unemployment rate decreased in all metro areas. In Pueblo, where the highest metro unemployment rate was found, the rate decreased from 10.5 percent to 9.6 percent, year over year. In the Fort Collins-Loveland area, where the rates were lowest, the unemployment rate fell from 7.3 percent to 6.2 percent during the same period.

The unemployment rate is a reflection of both the total number of employed persons and the total size of the labor force (as reflected in the Household Survey), so the unemployment rate can decrease even in times of falling total employment if the size of the labor force decreases as well.

To provide some additional context, we can look to see how far below total employment levels are below the most recent peak in employment in each region. The peak time differs in each region. For example, the labor market peaked in mid-2007 in the Colorado Springs area, but it did not peak until late 2008 in the Grand Junction area.

The following numbers reflect how far below the most recent peak are the October 2011 employment totals:

Colorado Springs MSA, 6.5%
Denver-Aurora MSA, 4.4%
Fort Collins-Loveland MSA, 2.6%
Grand Junction MSA, 11.8%
Greeley MSA 5.4%
Pueblo MSA, 2.8%
Statewide, 4.4%

All things being equal, the areas further below the peak have recovered the least from initial job losses.

By far, Grand Junction remains the furthest below peak levels.

The Pueblo area and the Fort Collins-Loveland area, are nearest to peak levels, although Pueblo still reports a relatively high unemployment rate. The fort Collins-Loveland area, on the other hand, reports the lowest unemployment rate of the metro areas.

(Note: If we include the Boulder-Longmont MSA, we find that the Boulder area has consistently been among the areas with the lowest unemployment rate. In November 2011, the rate in the Boulder-Longmont area was 5.9%.)

Impact on Housing

The metro areas with the most job growth should generally also be the areas with the most demand for housing. We do see this reflected to a certain extent in the apartment vacancy data and in job growth.

We expect the demand for housing to continue to be strongest in the Fort Collins-Loveland area and in metro Denver.

Colorado adds jobs in November, marking five months of job gains

2011-12-20T14:50:00.000-08:00

Colorado gained 79,574 jobs in November 2011 compared to November of last year, and the non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell year-over-year from 8.9 percent to 7.8 percent. According to the most recent employment data, collected through the Household Survey and released today by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, total employment in November, not seasonally adjusted, rose to 2.514 million jobs. There were also 54,000 more people in the work force during November, compared to November 2010.

The unemployment rate remained largely flat from October to November in spite of job gains due to a relatively large number of workers joining the labor force.

From November 2010 to November 2011, total employment rose 3.2 percent, while the labor force rose 2.0 percent. The total labor force in November included 2.72 million workers.

As can be seen in the second graph, total employment and total workforce size have decreased slightly, month-over-month. Year over year, both total employment and the labor force rose together. However, both remain well below the July 2008 peak.

The employment total is now 117,900 jobs below the peak levels experienced during July 2008 when there were 2.63 million employed workers. Compared to the labor force peak in July 2008, the labor force is now down by more than 40,500 workers.

In the third graph is shown the year-over-year comparisons, by percent, for total employment. November 2011 was the fifth month in a row showing a positive year-over-year change in total employment. This followed 33 months in a row of negative job growth in year-over-year comparisons. At 3.2 percent, the year-over-year percent change in total employment was the largest gain since January 2007 and was at a 59-month high in November 2011. Between August 2008 and July 2011, no month posted a positive change in total employment when compared to the same month a year earlier.

The graph also shows the year-over-change in the labor force. Total labor force size rose from November 2010 to November 2011, and was only the third time that the labor force has grown, year over year, since June 2009 . The labor force size had shrunk, year over year, for 26 months in a row from July 2009 to August 2011.

These numbers come from the Household Survey employment data, so the size of the workforce is dependent on the number of people stating that they are actively looking for work if not employed. Discouraged workers who have stopped looking for work are excluded.

Establishment Survey

The establishment survey, on the other hand, which surveys employers, showed much smaller job gains, year over year. According to the establishment survey data, found here, Colorado's total employment (not seasonally adjusted) increased by 25,000 from November 2010 to November 2011. Total employment also decreased by 2,000 from October 2011 to November 2011.

November housing starts: multifamily starts surge in western US

2011-12-20T12:59:00.000-08:00

Multifamily housing starts in the West Census region of the US, which includes Colorado, rose 286 percent from November 2010, showing the highest November total in multifamily starts in four years. Single-family housing starts were up 18.5 percent from November 2010 to November 2011, while the combined total for both single-family and multifamily units were up 76 percent during the same period.

According to new housing construction and housing starts data released today by the US Census Bureau, there were approximately 12,200 housing units started in the West during November 2011. Of the new units started, 6,400 were single-family structures and 5,800 were structures containing more than one housing unit.

Nationally, housing starts overall increased 27 percent, year over year, with total housing starts rising to a total of 51,800.

Total housing starts remain well below peak levels both nationally and in the West. November 2011 housing starts in the West were 77 percent below the peak reached during May 2004. Nationally, November 2011 was 73 percent below peak levels. The national peak in housing starts was reached during May 2005.

Multifamily starts have rebounded more than single-family starts. In the West, single-family starts are 86 percent below peak levels while multifamily starts are only 42 percent below peak levels.

The West census region includes California, so given the size of the West census region, the fact that total housing starts are at 12,200 indicates that new home construction continues to be very light throughout the region. Housing starts totals ranging from 35,000 to 45,000 were common from 2004 to 2006. However, most of this decline was driven by drops in single-family activity, and not by large drops in multifamily activity.

The first graph shows the difference between single-family starts and starts for structures with more than one housing unit in the West region. Single-family starts rose 18 percent from November 2010 to November 2011. Starts for structures with more than one unit rose by 286 percent during the same period, rising from 1,500 units during November 2010, to 5,800 units during November of this year.

The second graph shows month-by-month comparisons in housing starts for each year in the West. November's housing-starts total increased from October to November, which is not reflective of the historical trend in which starts generally decline form October to November.

More sustained growth was visible in starts for structures with more than one housing unit. As can be seen in the third graph, November's total was significantly higher than November 2010, and is at a four-year high.

Starts for buildings with more than one unit were relatively numerous in November, showing a continued trend of growing activity in multifamily construction. Single-family starts showed signs of life as well, but were far more restrained than was the case in multifamily starts.

We can also note that the surge in multifamily starts is reinforced by recent increases in new multifamily permit data as well.

October single-family permits: El Paso County active, most county totals fall :

2011-12-20T12:55:00.000-08:00

Of the 6,069 new single-family permits issued during the first ten months of 2011, 1,338 of them, or 22 percent, were issued in El Paso County alone. According to new single-family October permit data by county, released by the Census Bureau, the counties with the largest numbers of single-family permits issued during the first ten months of 2011 were El Paso, Douglas, Denver, Larimer and Arapahoe.

See here for recent entries about building permits.

New single-family permits from Jan-Oct
El Paso 1338
Douglas 780
Larimer 611
Denver 590
Arapahoe 506

Also:
Adams 458
Broomfield 82
Chaffee 63
Clear Creek 9
Grand 12
Gunnison 23
Jefferson 388
Mesa 237
Park 66
Teller 31
Weld 546

(Note: All permits discussed in this article are single-family permits.)

However, when permit totals are adjusted to the number of existing housing units in each county, the counties with the larges amounts of permit activity were Chaffee, Park, Douglas, El Paso and Weld.

The first map shows the relative amount of single-family permit activity adjusted for the existing size of the housing stock in each county. The counties are then broken out in quartiles reflecting the amount of single-family activity compared to other counties. The top quartile has the largest amount of new permitting compared to the number of existing units. The bottom quartile has the smallest amount.

Top Q: Brown
2nd Q: Green
3rd Q: Orange
Bottom Q: Yellow
No data or no permits: White

In absolute terms, and as expected, the counties with the largest populations have the most permit activity. But when adjusted to the number of existing housing units (as shown in the map), the hot spots for single-family permits right now are Douglas, Park, Chaffee, Weld and El Paso counties. Larimer, Gilpin, Mesa and Broomfield counties are in the second quartile.

During the first ten months of 2011, the areas with relatively few new single-family permits relative to the size of the existing stock are Pueblo, Jefferson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Boulder counties.

In the larger context, single-family permits remain well below totals experienced prior to 2007. From 2006 to 2008, single-family permits in the state decreased 60 percent from 31,000 to 12,000. Permit activity appears to have bottomed out in 2009. When discussing permit activity from 2008 to the present time, we're looking at permit totals that are near 20-year lows.

See here for a discussion on historical permit data by county.

It is also helpful to see which counties have shown the largest increases and decreases in permit activity. In the map below, we see that comparing the first ten months of this year to the same period last year, Larimer and Teller counties were among the counties with the largest increases in single-family permit activity. Boulder, Jefferson, Denver and Douglas counties also showed increases. On the other hand, permits decreased in Mesa, Weld, Adams, Arapahoe, El Paso and Pueblo counties.

Brown: Increase of 25 percent or more
Green: Increase of 1 to 24.9 percent
Orange: Decrease of 1 to 24.9 percent
Yellow: Decrease of 25 percent or more
White: No data or no change

Largest increases among metro counties:
Larimer 69 percent
Teller 93 percent
Douglas 10 percent
Denver 8 percent
All other metro counties reported year-over-year drops.

With relatively large numbers of new permit activity in 2011, and with a year-over-year increase in each county, both Larimer County and Douglas County show solid demand for new permitting at this time. In spite of year-over-year declines in totals, El Paso County continues to report a significant share of the state's overall permitting activity while Weld county reports a surprisingly large number of new single-family permits in the wake of very high foreclosure totals. Much of the new permit activity in Weld county is coming from expanding communities in southern Weld County.

Personal income in Colorado now 3 percent above 2008's peak levels

2011-12-19T15:37:00.000-08:00

New personal income data for Colorado was released today by the BLS.

Colorado has now surpassed the personal income peak achieved before the 2008 financial crisis. At $225.0 billion, personal income in Colorado is above the peak levels reached during the third quarter of 2008, when personal income reached $218.1 billion. Personal income is now up by 3.18 percent from previous peak levels.

In year-over-year comparisons, personal income in Colorado is up 4.8 percent from the third quarter of 2010 to the same period this year. This is the lowest year-over-year rate of increase since the second quarter of 2010, when personal income grew 3.2 percent, year over year.

Personal income in Colorado is now slightly further above peak levels than the US as a whole and the Rocky Mountain region. As of the 3rd quarter of 2011, The Rocky Mountain region is 3.13 percent above peak levels and the US is 3.11 percent above its own peak which occurred during the second quarter of 2008.

Over ten years from the 3rd quarter of 2002 to the 3rd quarter of 2011, US personal income increased 42.7 percent, and in Colorado it also increased 42.7 percent. In the Rocky Mountain region, the increase for the same period was 49.3 percent.

(personal income is shown in 1,000,000s)

Personal income figures are not adjusted for inflation. Over the past decade, the consumer price index in the United States West region increased 23 percent. So, income growth has outpaced inflation, but real income growth is about half of nominal income growth.

Since the peak levels reached during the third quarter of 2008, personal income in Colorado is up 3.1 percent, but the CPI in the U.S. West has increased 3.6 percent during the same period.

Much of the increase that has occurred may be attributed to a 29 percent increase in personal current transfer receipts since the 2008 peak.

The effect of personal current transfer receipts

An important component of personal income is "personal current transfer receipts." These are forms of income not died to wages and employment income and include payments such as social security payments, unemployment insurance, Medicare and Medicaid.

When personal current transfer receipts are removed from personal income, income growth is not as robust.

The second chart shows personal income minus personal current transfer receipts.

Without the inclusion of transfer receipts, personal income in Colorado is only up 0.1 percent from peak levels. In other words, by this measure, Colorado has seen almost no personal income growth since the peak unless these transfer receipts are included.

Naturally, when adjusted for inflation, personal income (minus transfer receipts) has declined since 2008. Since the peak period, the CPI has increased 3.6 percent. Comparing the 0.1 percent increase in income since the peak with the 3.6 percent increase in the CPI, we see that income growth has not kept up with price inflation and that real incomes have not yet returned to peak levels.

By this measure we find that Colorado fares slightly better than the nation, however. With personal current transfer receipts excluded, personal income nationwide has declined by 0.6 percent, and in the Rocky Mountain Region, personal income has increased only 0.02 percent since the peak period.

Conclusions

Overall, Colorado's real estate markets and labor markets have not suffered as much as many markets, but in a variety of ways, including personal income, Colorado only began to match peak levels in personal income during the third quarter of this year. Compared to all other states, Colorado placed in the top quartile during the third quarter, however. See the map here.

Generally speaking, personal income has been largely flat in Colorado since 2008 reflecting a sluggish job market and wage growth. Income growth from wages and employment has been sluggish as is shown when transfer receipts are excluded from calculations. See here for more on employment in Colorado.

Note: Personal income is the income received by all persons from all sources. Personal income is the sum of net earnings by place of residence, property income, and personal current transfer receipts. Total personal income will rise as population rises, even if household incomes are declining. Property income is rental income of persons, personal dividend income, and personal interest income. Net earnings is earnings by place of work (the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors' income) less contributions for government social insurance, plus an adjustment to convert earnings by place of work to a place-of-residence basis. Personal income is measured before the deduction of personal income taxes and other personal taxes and is reported in current dollars (no adjustment is made for inflation).

Remodeling activity increases 50 percent in West

2011-12-19T13:29:00.000-08:00

Residential remodeling activity increased 52.5 percent in the Western U.S. from October 2010 to October 2011. According to the October 2011 Residential Buildfax Remodeling Index, released this week by BUILDERadius, The Western U.S. showed the largest rate of increase, by far, in its index for October 2011, outpacing all other regions and the U.S. as a whole.

According to Buildfax's October 2011 release:

In October, all regions except the northeast posted year-over-year gains. The West was up 53.6 points (52.5%) year-over-year while the Midwest was up 21.4 points (20.2%) year-over-year. The South was up 9.5 points (10.6%) year-over-year, and the South was down 3.5 points (4.5%) year-over-year.

In the graph, we see that the year-over-year percent change in the western region has outpaced all other regions and the U.S. as a whole for the past five months. Growth rates have been solid in recent months, and October's year-over-year percent change for both the West and the US were the largest in more than nine months.

Overall, the report suggests substantial increases in the amount of residential remodeling activity in the economy. Often, remodeling activity reflects an availability of household capital for some construction and home-improvement activities while there may be an absence of the large amounts of household capital necessary for relocation and new home purchases.

The Buildfax press release states that the rise in remodeling activity in most of the nation reflects a national trend in which homeowners have been spending on remodeling as an alternative to home home purchases in a market in which it is difficult to sell one's home.

As we've seen in recent data for new home sales and housing starts, new home construction remains at historic lows. Many homeowners turn to remodeling projects, as is reflected in recent Buildfax reports.

The exception is the Northeast region, which has shown only slight growth and some declines in recent months.

As a supplement, I've included the second graph which shows the year-over-year change in the numeric value of the index by region.

About the BuildFax Remodeling Index

The BuildFax Remodeling Index is based on construction permits filed with local building departments across the country. The index tracks the number of properties permitted. The national and regional indexes all have an initial value of 100 set in April of 2004, are based on a three-month moving average, and are not seasonally adjusted.

Housing News Digest, December 19

2011-12-19T08:11:00.000-08:00

US Homebuilders See Surge in Potential Buyers
Not since the spring of 2008 have the nation’s homebuilders felt this good about the potential for new business. An industry association survey measuring builder sentiment rose for the third straight month in December, with significant gains in the component measuring traffic of perspective buyers.

Relaxed housing rules before county commissioners
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, Colorado — Garfield County commissioners are scheduled to have a public hearing this afternoon on their proposal to relax the county's affordable housing rules as an incentive to kick start the lagging housing construction market.

The county's planning commission, in a split vote last week, recommended approval of the code amendment.

The proposal would change the trigger point for residential subdivisions to be required to build deed-restricted affordable housing units from five units to 15.

Fewer mortgage defaults forecast
Colorado ranked No. 11 nationally in foreclosure actions in November, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said this week. The state often has been in the top 10 for foreclosures.

Elsewhere, credit reporting agency Transunion forecasts Colorado, along with Arizona and Wisconsin, will see the biggest drop in mortgage delinquencies in 2012.

Nationally, fewer U.S. homes entered the foreclosure process or were taken back by banks in November, reflecting a seasonal pullback in foreclosure activity by lenders and mortgage servicers.

Local home building sunk to another recession low in November.

The slide extends a slump that began more than five years ago and ensures that 2011 will go down as Pueblo County's second worst year for home construction, after 1983.

"It's been longer and deeper than anybody anticipated a couple of years ago. It's a tough one. There's no question," said longtime developer Bob Leach of Horizon Communities.

Modification blunders bedevil U.S. housing recovery
Shirley Burnell, a community activist from Oakland, California, has been trying to get her subprime loan restructured since 2007.

She never missed a payment, but the adjustable rate mortgage she got in 2004 shot up to a monthly payment she could no longer afford.

First she provided documents without getting any response, then she was denied in April by her servicer, Bank of America (BAC.N), for not providing documents it never actually asked for.

Consumer price increase in west rises to four-year high

2011-12-16T09:20:00.000-08:00

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released today the November CPI for US urban areas and regions. In the West region, from November 2010 to November 2011, the CPI increased 3.2 percent. This is a significant increase over the year-over-year increases for November during 2008, 2009 or 2010, during which the change in CPI never exceeded 1.5 percent.

In the first graph, we can see that the CPI growth in November 2011 is now tied with November 2005 for the third-highest increase observed for November during the past ten years. Only 2004 and 2007 showed larger increases, and price increases in those years were partially countered by strong growth in employment and incomes, but at the present time, income growth has been flat in recent years, as discussed here.

The price increases are being largely driven by transportation costs, such as gasoline, which increased by 7.2 percent, year over year. Food costs and apparel also increased significantly, rising 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.

Housing prices were restrained at a year-over-year increase of 1.8 percent. Although increases in rent have exceeded 5 percent in many areas of the state, the housing component of CPI also reflects declining home prices, which mitigate the increases in rent levels within the index.

Recent price increases will impact household calculations and attitudes on spending as many households conclude that discretionary spending will need to be scaled back in the face of increasing food and transportation costs.

This in turn will have effects on home purchase activity as well. Note: In addition to the issue of disposable income is the issue of interest rates. Should the Federal Reserve conclude that inflation does need to be addressed, the resulting increase in interest rates would also push down home purchase activity. (Recent declines in the mortgage rate have not spurred large amounts or refinance or purchase activity, as noted here.)

The second graph shows year-over-year changes in CPI for all months since 2002. If current trends continue, CPI growth will return to pre-recession levels in coming months.

Nationally, the CPI was unchanged for the second month in a row:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was
unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all
items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index declined for the second month in a row and offset
increases in the indexes for food and all items less food and energy.
As in October, the gasoline index fell sharply and the index for
household energy declined as well. The food index rose slightly in
November, though the index for food at home declined as four of the
six major grocery store food group indexes fell.

Housing News Digest, December 16

2011-12-16T07:43:00.000-08:00

Single dorm rooms on the rise at colleges

"This generation of students has grown up with their private bedrooms," said Terry Giardino, assistant facilities director at Montclair State. Many also like the security of a single because they think it's safer for their expensive laptops and other electronics.

Increased interest in single rooms started in the 1990s, but has now become a nationwide trend with many schools planning and building dormitories with singles, often configured in suites with shared bathrooms and lounge areas.

"The days of a common bathroom at the end of the hallway are gone," declared Karen Pennington, vice president for student development and campus life at Montclair.

UBS forecaster: Negative real estate outlook in U.S., Colorado
The Colorado and U.S. residential and commercial real estate markets will likely “bounce along the bottom” for the next three to five years, with the multifamily sector being the bright spot, according to Jonathan Woloshin of UBS.

The large amount of negative equity in the system (people who owe more than their homes are worth) and low median price on foreclosed homes will have a depressing effect on the residential market for several years, according to Woloshin.

Colorado Springs commercial real estate sales still stalled
Commercial real estate in the Pikes Peak region has taken a few small steps forward on its way toward a recovery, yet don't expect significant gains next year, according to a forecast by Sierra Commercial Real Estate, a Colorado Springs brokerage.

Businesses are leasing new office and retail space, investors are purchasing commercial properties and some retailers and industrial users have announced expansion plans, Sierra officials said.

Freddie Mac Mandates Servicer Participation in State Mortgage Programs
Freddie Mac has notified servicers that they are required to take part in mortgage assistance programs offered by state Housing Finance Agencies (HFAs) in connection with the federal government’s Hardest Hit Fund initiative.

“[E]ffective immediately, you must begin accepting modification assistance program funds from participating HFAs on behalf of eligible borrowers with Freddie Mac-owned or guaranteed mortgages,” the McLean, Virginia-based GSE wrote in a bulletin update sent to its mortgage servicers on Tuesday.

October multifamily: El Paso, Denver, Jefferson and Larimer counties dominate

2011-12-15T16:06:00.000-08:00

During the first ten months of 2011, 87 percent of new multifamily permits issued have been issued in Larimer, Jefferson, Denver, and El Paso counties. Prior to June 2011, virtually all new permits had been issued in only Larimer, Denver and El Paso counties, but Jefferson County has recently issued permits for more than 500 new multifamily units. Arapahoe county issued multifamily units for the first time this year during September, with 188 new units permitted.

According to new multifamily permit data for Colorado counties, 3,305 multifamily permits have been issued from January through October of this year. 2,877 of them were issued in Larimer, Denver, Jefferson, and El Paso counties.

The remaining 428 permits were issued in Arapahoe, Mesa, Boulder and Douglas counties. No other county in the state reported any new multifamily permits issued so far this year.

For more historical info on multifamily permits, see here.

In the map below, we see that the geographic distribution of new multifamily permits.

Brown: More than 400 permits issued in 2011
Green: 100-399 permits issued in 2011
Yellow: fewer than 100 permits issued in 2011
White: no permits issued, or no data

Total multifamily permits issued, Jan-Sept 2011
Adams 0
Arapahoe 188
Boulder 103
Broomfield 0
Denver 1,262
Douglas 73
El Paso 657
Jefferson 504
Larimer 454
Mesa 64
Pueblo 0
Weld 0

With so little demand for new condominiums right now, it is safe to assume that the lopsided majority of new multifamily permits being issued are for rental housing. We see most of this activity in areas where vacancy rates have been tight or look to be tight for the near to mid-term.

With apartment vacancy rates headed below five percent in the Denver, Larimer and El Paso counties, the markets appear to be responding to tight vacancies with plans for future construction.

Year-over-year change:
The following show the year-over-year percent changes in new multifamily permits from January-October 2010 to the same period this year.

Adams -100%
Arapahoe -59%
Boulder -65%
Denver +242%
Douglas +386%
El Paso +9,285%
Jefferson +36%
Larimer +23%
Mesa +33%
Pueblo -100%

Pueblo County declined from 17 permits during the first nine months of last year, to zero permits during the same period this year. Adams declined from 27 permits to zero permits over the same period.

Condo and townhome sales edge up in metro Denver, statewide

2011-12-15T14:51:00.000-08:00

Condo and townhome sales in metro Denver and statewide increased, year over year, for the fourth month in a row in October. According to condo and townhome sales data released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, sales increased 18 percent in October 2011 from the same month a year earlier. They increased 20.8 percent in metro Denver over the same period. In the Pikes Peak region, on the other hand, October sales decreased 18.5 percent. In October, there were 1,067 sales statewide. 700 of them were in metro Denver and 79 were in the Pikes Peak region.

This recent growth trend in statewide and metro Denver sales is now seen in the 12-month moving averages used to track trends in home sales. The highly-cyclical nature of home sales trends makes it difficult to track multi-year trends in home sales. The addition of the homebuyer tax credits from 2008 to 2010 further complicated the picture. So, I have smoothed out the sales totals using a 12-month moving average for each month.

The first graph shows the 12-month moving averages in total condo and townhome sales in metro Denver and statewide. The overall trends since 2007 is clearly downward, although average statewide sales have largely stabilized since late 2009. Until recently, the moving average for condo and townhome sales had continued to move downward through late 2010 and most of 2011, although there have been some gains in recent months.

The second graph shows year-over-year changes in the 12-month condo and townhome sales average. We see increases during 2010 following the end of the homebuyer tax credit period. The year-over-year changes moved back into negative territory by early 2011, and the year-over-year change in the moving average, in both metro Denver and statewide, has remained negative for the past twelve months. The magnitude of the the decline for each month has lessened in both areas over the past four months. If the current trend continues, condo and townhome sales will show positive year-over-year changes in average sales by Spring of 2012.

In the Pikes peak region, similar trends hold, although the homebuyer tax credits seem to have had a broader impact with the year over year change in sales remaining in positive territory for 15 months in a row. As can be seen in the third graph, sales activity has since declined, and the year over year changes in recent months have decreased by more than ten percent each month in recent months, suggesting that condo and townhome sales in this market have not yet achieved as much stability as are being seen in metro Denver and statewide.

Condo prices inch up in metro Denver, fall statewide

2011-12-15T14:29:00.000-08:00

The median price for condos and townhomes in the metro Denver area increased 2.4 percent, year over year, in October of this year. According to home price information for condos and townhomes, released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, the median price in the region rose to $128,000 from last October's median price of $125,000. Statewide, the median price fell 16.7 percent, falling from October 2010's price of $136,600 to October 2011's price of $113,750. In the Pikes Peak region, the median price fell 16.9 percent to $105,000 during October, falling from October 2010's price of $126,400.

Condo and townhome prices remain well below peak median prices in each region. The statewide median price for condos and townhomes in October was down 51 percent from the March 2006 peak of $236,200. In metro Denver, the median price in October was down21.5 percent from the July 06 peak of $163,300, and the Pikes Peak-area median price for condos and townhomes in October was down 35.3 percent from the September 2007 peak of $162,300.

The first graph shows the median home price in each area for each month since 2006.

Condo and townhome prices do not appear to have stabilized as single-family homes have, and median prices appear to be continuing a slow downward trend. The substantial declines in statewide median prices for condos and townhomes are likely being pushed downward by significant drops in median prices for condos and townhomes in many mountain regions following the 2008 financial crisis.

The second graph shows year over year changes in median home prices for condos and townhomes. With the exception of the 2.4 percent increase during October 2011 for metro Denver, all three areas have reported declines in the median home price since February 2011. The overall trend in home prices among condos and townhomes over the past year has been down, although the recent increase in metro Denver does point toward some added stability in the Denver metro market.

Home sales transactions fall in Colorado

2011-12-15T13:07:00.000-08:00

The number of single-family home sales closings increased again in October in metro Denver, the Pikes Peak Region, and statewide. According to home sales information released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, the number of single-family closings rose 16.9 percent in metro Denver during October, compared to October of last year. Over the same period, closings rose 11.2 percent statewide, and 20.1 percent in the Pikes Peak region. Statewide in October, there were 4,726 closings. 2,743 of them were in the metro Denver region and 758 occurred in the Pikes Peak region.

The number of closings in all three measures has increased, year over year, each month for the past four months.

This recent growth trend has also begun to show up in the 12-month moving averages used to track trends in home sales. The highly-cyclical nature of home sales trends makes it difficult to track multi-year trends in home sales. The addition of the homebuyer tax credits from 2008 to 2010 further complicated the picture. So, I have smoothed out the sales totals using a 12-month moving average for each month.

In the first graph, we see the moving average in home sales compared to year-over-year changes in the average for the metro Denver area. The trend in home sales closing has been downward since mid-2005 and accelerated in early 2009. From March 2008 until September 2011, every month showed a negative year-over-year change in home sales. In October, the year-over-year change was positive for the first time in 45 months, with an increase of 0.3 percent. As indicated by the moving averages themselves, overall home sales numbers have been flat since early 2009.

The second graph shows the same measurements for Colorado statewide. The year-over-year change in the statewide average for home sales turned positive in October for the first time in 12 months. Statewide, transactions moved into positive territory during some month during which the homebuyer tax credits were offered in 2010. The average increased 0.8 percent in October, year over year.

The third graph shows the same measures for the Pikes Peak region. The homebuyer tax credit produced much larger changes in the regional trends in the Pikes Peak region than in metro Denver or statewide. The year over year change in October was negative, making it the twelfth month in a row that produced a negative year over year change in the moving average for home sales. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the negative change has decreased each month for the past five months. Excluding the run-up in home sales produced by the tax credit in 2009 and 2010, the average in home sales has been largely flat since mid-2009 in the Pikes Peak region.

The analysis of moving averages in home sales activity indicates that the markets continue to stabilize in metro Denver, the Pikes Peak region, and statewide. Overall activity has been flat since 2009, but recent upward trends suggest that sales activity will continue to build at least in the near term. Sales totals, however, are likely to continue to be well below peak levels for at least the next year.

Single-family median prices fell in October in Colorado

2011-12-15T09:06:00.000-08:00

Median home prices for single-family homes fell in Colorado and in the state's two largest market areas. According to median home price data for October, released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, the median home price for single-family homes was $225,800 during October, which is a drop of 3.2 percent from October of 2010. Statewide, the median home price was $204,400 during October, a drop of 7.6 percent from the same month last year. The median price in the Pikes Peak region fell 7.5 percent, yeear over year, falling to $187,400 during October.

The first graph shows the median single-family home price for the state and for the metro Denver and Pikes Peak regions. Median home prices fell dramatically in all three measures following the financial crisis of late 2008, but moved back up quickly by mid-2009. Since mid-2009, however, median home prices have been largely flat in metro Denver and in the Pikes Peak region. Statewide, the median price has been moving down since 2009. Statewide, sales prices are likely being pushed down by declining markets in western Colorado and in the central mountains.

The metro Denver area, where the median price is 14 percent below its June 2007 peak levels, has recovered the most. Metro Denver prices appear to have stabilized since 2009 and the median price generally moves between 220K and 240K. Following an initial recovery in late 2009, the statewide median price has shown a largely downward trend since early 2010. The statewide median price is now 16 percent below its June 2006 peak, and fell below 200K during most months of the past year. The Pikes peak median price is 18 percent below its July 07 peak and has been generally flat since late 2009, moving between 180K and 200K.

during recent months, however, the median prices appear to have entered negative territory when compared to the same months of the previous year. As can be seen in the second graph, the year-over-year changes in all three areas have been negative each month for the past six month.

This downward trend is mirrored in other home prices indices for Colorado such as the Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and FHFA indices. See here for past analyses using other indices. The year over year declines shown here tend to be larger than those of the other indices, and is likely due to differences in method.

The home price data provided by the Colorado Association of Realtors is based on home sales transactions that are listed in the MLS systems for each area and do not include for-sale-by-owner transactions or new homes sold directly by home builders.

Housing News Digest, December 15

2011-12-15T07:57:00.000-08:00

Number of real estate loans that were paid off in 3Q falls in Weld, state
In Weld, several factors have slowed activity, including tighter lending standards, and the fact that many homeowners think they will get less than what they paid for their home if they sell it now, said Angell Fuchs, a mortgage consultant with Greeley-based Home Team Lending, which is a member of Universal Lending Corp. Fuchs has worked in the Greeley market since 1978. She said concerns about the national economic picture also have slowed buying.

“When you’ve got a friend that’s lost his job, that really effects your thinking about whether or not you can buy,” she said. “There’s no doubt that the fear of what might happen in the future because of the economy is playing an important factor.”

She also said a number of homeowners are upside down on their mortgages, which means they owe more on the home than it’s worth. That can make it difficult to get approved for a new loan.

New deed activity up
The number of real estate loans paid off in Colorado was up 3.4 percent during the first three quarters of 2011 compared to the same period last year, according to a state report released today.

Public trustees released a total of 177,409 deeds of trust for the first nine months of this year, rising from 2010’s nine-month total of 171,596. Typically, a release of a deed of trust occurs when a real estate loan is paid off whether through a refinance, sale of a property or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan.

In the third quarter, however, the number of deeds of trust released this year fell 13.2 percent. Releases fell from 58,177 during 2010’s third quarter to 50,506 during the same period this year. Releases also fell from the second quarter of this year to the third quarter, falling 6.3 percent from the second quarter’s total of 53,878

Colorado 11th for foreclosures
Colorado foreclosures were down 24 percent from November 2010 20.2 percent down from October, both far better than the national average.

“This pretty closely mirrors our November data that we put out last week,” said Ryan McMaken, spokesman for the Colorado Division of Housing. “Both filings and sales fell more than 20 percent year-over-year in our data, and it looks like they have some similar numbers here. Of course, we also analyzed the delinquency report data showing that Colorado was actually eighth-best in the country for delinquencies and foreclosures. Also, LPS Mortgage monitor, in another survey, listed Colorado as sixth-best in the nation for delinquencies and foreclosures. So, Realtytrac’s ranking of Colorado as 11th worst appears to be unique among three separate national surveys.”

Home loan repayments fall to new low statewide
The number of deeds of trust released fell 13.2 percent year-over-year in Colorado in the third quarter, according to data released by the Colorado Division of Housing.

A release of deed typically occurs when a real estate loan is paid off, whether through refinance, sale of property or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan.

In Larimer County, the number dropped 22.9 percent from 5,440 in third-quarter 2010 to 4,195 in the same quarter this year.

In Weld County, releases of deeds of trust fell 26.8 percent from 2,909 to 2,130 year-over-year in third-quarter. Weld County had the second-largest decrease, with Pueblo County dropping by 29.7 percent.

Kathi Williams picked to fill RTD board vacancy
Kathi Williams, a former state legislator and former director of the Colorado Division of Housing, was chosen Wednesday by the Adams County commissioners to fill a vacancy on the RTD board.

Williams, who also served on the Regional Transportation District board in the 1980s, was one of six finalists interviewed for the appointment.

Housing News Digest, December 14

2011-12-14T08:31:00.000-08:00

Colorado mortgage-repay trend signals fewer refis and home buys
A release of a deed of trust also happens when a homeowner makes a final payment on a mortgage.

"Even though mortgage rates have headed down this year to very low levels, we haven't seen the kinds of increases in refinance and purchase activity that one might expect," Billie Jo Downing, with Re/Max Action Brokers in Loveland, said in the state report. "Tighter lending standards are certainly affecting the overall volume."

Mortgage activity in Colorado slowing down

The number of Colorado homeowners paying off their loans and, as a result, the number of deeds of trust transferred by trustees fell in the third quarter. The data suggests mortgage activity is declining in the state, according to numbers released by the Colorado Division of Housing.

The number of deeds of trust released by public trustees fell from 58,177 in the third quarter of 2010 to 50,506 this year, according to the division's report. The third quarter's number of released deeds in Colorado is at its lowest level in three years.

Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years
Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured.

New federal homelessness stats contradict experience on Denver's streets
A new federal count of the homeless released Tuesday shows numbers declined in the U.S. and in Colorado between January 2010 and January 2011 — a finding that sharply conflicts with local groups' reports of a worsening crisis.

U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan reported that 636,017 people were homeless in the U.S. on a night in January 2011, a 2.1 percent decline from January 2010.

Little improvement expected in Springs commercial real estate market

Commercial real estate in the Pikes Peak region has taken a few small steps forward on its way toward a recovery, yet don’t expect significant gains next year, according to a forecast released Tuesday by Sierra Commercial Real Estate, a Colorado Springs brokerage.

Businesses are leasing new office and retail space, investors are purchasing commercial properties and some retailers and industrial users have announced expansion plans, Sierra officials said.

Analysis: Releases of deeds of trust head down

2011-12-13T16:46:00.000-08:00

Today, the Division of Housing released its first report on releases of deeds of trust. Since release activity reflects trends in home purchase and refinance activity they can help us identify some trends in demand for home loans.

The report notes that, in general, release activity responds to movements in the mortgage rate in ways very similar to that seen in mortgage refinance activity. For example, in the first chart, we see that there was a surge in release activity in 2003.

The economics site Calculated Risk provides a historical chart on refinance activity in which we see a similar surge in 2003 at the national level. Refis also experienced a surge in 2009 following declines in the mortgage rate following the financial crisis. In Colorado, releases headed up in 2009, although one might hesitate to call 2009's increases in release activity a "surge." Nevertheless, releases did respond positively to the decline in mortgage rates during 2009.

The most recent mortgage refinance data from MBA suggests that refinance activity has been flat nationally during 2011. We saw similar trends in release data which show that 2011's totals are likely to be similar to 2010. The second graph shows how release totals have declined over the past three quarters.

If we analyze movements in releases against movements in the mortgage rate, we find that almost 2/3 of the time, when the mortgage rate moves in one direction during a quarter, the number of releases will move in the opposite direction the following quarter.

For example, the average mortgage rate declined 13 percent during the first quarter of 2009. During the following quarter, releases rose 55 percent. Also, during the third quarter of 2010, average mortgage rates fell 9 percent, and during the following quarter, releases rose 37 percent. By contrast, during the first quarter of 2011, the mortgage rate rose 9 percent and during the following quarter, releases fell 26 percent. Other quarter show less dramatic change, but the general relationship between mortgage rates and release activity holds.

This relationship was not true during the third quarter of this year. During the second quarter of 2009, mortgage rates decreased almost four percent, but they went down more than 6 percent during the following quarter. There have been other quarters during which mortgage rates decreased but did not lead to an increase in release activity during the following quarter. For example, the mortgage rate decreased during the fourth quarter of 2009, but releases fell 5 percent during the first quarter of 2010.

The fact that interest rates and release activity have declined together over the past quarter does not prove that markets are no longer responding at all, of course, but since we know that tighter lending standards have led to a decrease in the number of potential buyers, it does suggest that the decline in the mortgage rate has not been enough to overcome limitations on demand imposed by higher credit and downpayment requirements.

The third graph shows percent changes in releases against changes in the mortgage rate. Note that, in general, when the green line falls below zero, the blue line moves above zero during the following quarter:

Finally, for those who are interested, I've included a historical chart on foreclosures vs. releases. An run up in refi and purchase activity begins in 2002 following the 2001 national recession. Releases peak in 2003 and then decline, which is then followed by foreclosure activity that peaks in 2007 and then falls in 2008. Foreclosures then peak again in 2009 as a result of job losses following the financial crisis.

Home-loan repayments in Colorado fall to new low during third quarter

2011-12-13T16:44:00.000-08:00

Click here for the full report.

The number of real estate loans paid off in Colorado was up 3.4 percent during the first three quarters of 2011 compared to the same period last year. According to a new report released today by the Colorado Division of Housing, public trustees released a total of 177,409 deeds of trust for the first nine months of this year, rising from 2010’s nine-month total of 171,596. Typically, a release of a deed of trust occurs when a real estate loan is paid off whether through refinance, sale of property or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan.

For the third quarter alone, however, the number of deeds of trust released this year fell 13.2 percent. Releases fell from 58,177 during 2010’s third quarter to 50,506 during the same period this year. Releases also fell from the second quarter of this year to the third quarter, falling 6.3 percent from the second quarter’s total of 53,878.

“Release activity is connected to activity in refinances and in new real estate purchases. So, when a lot of people are buying new homes or refinancing their mortgages, we see a surge in releases,” said Ryan McMaken, a spokesman with the Colorado Division of Housing. “Releases have gone down now for three quarters in a row, which tells us that there’s been less refinance and purchase activity going on out there in recent months.”

According to the report, the number of deeds of trust released during the third quarter of this year was the lowest quarterly release total reported since the Division began collecting quarterly data in 2008. Releases totaled 50,506 during the third quarter of this year, coming in below the 52,656 releases reported during the fourth quarter of 2008, following the financial crisis.

Since release totals reflect trends in refinance activity, releases tend to increase following declines in mortgage rates. Releases peaked in 2003, for example, following three years of declines in mortgage rates. Since 2008, however, release activity has remained low in spite of low mortgage rates.

“Even though mortgage rates have headed down this year to very low levels, we haven’t seen the kinds of increases in refinance and purchase activity that one might expect,” said Billie Jo downing, a Realtor with Re/Max Action Brokers in Loveland. “Tighter lending standards are certainly affecting the overall volume.”

Trends in release activity varied by county. Year over year for the third quarter, release totals decreased in most counties surveyed. The only counties in which releases increased were Adams, Douglas, La Plata, Mesa, Summit and Teller Counties. Release activity during the third quarter fell 29 percent and 26 percent in Pueblo and Weld counties, respectively. Totals increased 76 percent in La Plata County and 67 percent in Mesa County.

When adjusted for the number of households in each county, the counties with the most release activity were Summit, Douglas, Park, Teller and Boulder.

“Many factors can affect local release activity such as the mobility of the local population, job creation, income level and the overall demand for real estate,” McMaken said. “Not surprisingly, many of the areas with more release activity are also areas either with relatively high job creation or higher income levels such as Larimer, Boulder and Douglas counties.”

Totals for releases of deeds of trust are collected quarterly by the Colorado Division of Housing. This report tracks releases of deeds of trust as reported by public trustees in Colorado. The report includes twenty-one counties which are chosen based on population size and to ensure that as many regions of the state as possible are represented. More than 90 percent of all occupied households in Colorado are within the twenty-one counties chosen.

A deed of trust is similar to a mortgage and is a lien on real property to secure payment of an indebtedness. The deed of trust contains a grant of the property to the public trustee for the benefit of the holder. The deed of trust is released when the debt is paid in full.

New hires up 4.4 percent in October in Western U.S.

2011-12-13T13:43:00.000-08:00

The number of new hires in the U.S. West, which includes Colorado, rose 4.4 percent year-over-year from October 2010 to October 2011, as layoffs decreased 15.2 percent during the same period.

According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report, released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the West region's labor markets performed better than the U.S. overall. The number of new hires in the U.S. rose 2.7 percent from October 2010 to October 2011. During the same period, layoffs fell 4.3 percent for the U.S.

with a decline of 15 percent, the year-over-year change in the layoffs in October 2011 showed the largest drop in the West since April 2010, while the year-over-year increase of 4.4 percent in new hires was the smallest increase in hires reported since April 2011.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in new hires and in layoffs in the U.S. West region. The overall trend is toward a gradual reversal of the large increases in layoffs and big declines in new hires that were seen during 2009.

In the second graph, we see the total number of new hires compared with the total number of separations, including quits, layoffs and other separations.

Note that when total hires (the blue line) are above total separations (the purple bar) then a positive net number of jobs have been added to the economy.

For the West region during October 2011, there were 17,000 more separations than hires. This is not a sizable disparity. Over the past four months, separation and hire levels have been somewhat similar, and this follows six months of job growth as can seen from February through June of 2011 . Overall, we can conclude that there was a small amount of job loss during October, according to this report, but that the year overall has shown some positive net job gains.

According to Colorado's jobs report for October 2011, October was a robust month for job growth, as can be seen here.

Housing News Digest, December 12

2011-12-12T09:12:00.000-08:00

One woman's story highlights benefits of Loveland's House of Neighborly Service
LOVELAND - Tina Smith lives with her mother in a modest Loveland home. She has a son, a daughter and a foster-dog named Huli.

Smith's young daughter, Rose, has a bag of stuffed animals that she carries around the house; most of them were given to her. She likes to take the colored jewels off her small chandelier.

"I always put them back when I'm done," she said.

Colorado's predicted employment growth positive for housing market
The 47th Annual Business Economic Outlook from the University of Colorado at the Boulder Leeds School of Business and CU Executive Director Richard Wobbekind predict "Colorado will outperform the nation in economic growth." This is incredible news for our local economy and the future of our housing market. The recently published forcast "analyzes changes that have taken place in all economic sectors during the past year, and looks at the opportunities and challenges that will shape the changes in our population, employment, and overall economy for the coming year."

Home sweet subsidy
After purging a waiting list that went back at least five years, the Housing Authority of the City of Colorado Springs reopened it in August 2010. In one month, 3,820 people applied. Today, the number is pushing 8,000.

You can't blame the backlog on small inventory; the authority is the biggest player in the local rental market, owning 1,487 housing units, ranging from apartments to single-family homes, valued at more than $90 million. It also owns the $2.8 million Senior Center complex at 1514 N. Hancock Ave., which it took over from the city last year. The agency has increased its inventory by 26 percent in five years.

Dwayne Romero discusses Aspen’s future economy\
Dwayne Romero was optimistic on the future of Aspen’s local economy in a presentation hosted by the Pitkin County Republicans on Thursday.

Romero, an ex-Aspen City Councilman who is a former executive director of the Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade and currently a member of the Economic Development Commission, gave a talk to an audience of about 40 people at the Doerr-Hosier Center at Aspen Meadows, including mayor Mick Ireland, titled “A Bottom Up Approach to Economic Development in Colorado.”

Lehman Said to Prepare $1.3 Billion Bid for Archstone Stake
The purchase would be the first step in a Lehman plan to gain control of Englewood, Colorado-based Archstone, an owner of apartment developments. The defunct securities firm seeks to sell or liquidate Archstone for at least $6 billion, according to another person familiar with the plan.

Housing News Digest, December 7

2011-12-07T07:44:00.000-08:00

Greeley Transitional House provides more than warmth

From unexpected medical costs to a necessary vehicle repair, sudden financial challenges can plunge a family into losing everything. The roof over a family's heads suddenly takes a backseat to food and necessities.

Lives are uprooted as family members and friends offer stable places to live. Some find the Greeley Transitional House, an organization whose goal is to provide housing for families while they reach stable incomes.

Denver metro foreclosure sales surge in November

One theory is that lenders have geared up again after pulling back in the fall of 2010 on criticisms that they were improperly processing foreclosures.

That slowdown showed signs of reversing in August and could explain November's numbers, McMaken said.

Another explanation is that November had five Wednesdays, the day of the week when foreclosure auctions take place, he said.

Calm Before the Storm: CMBS Delinquency Rate Retreats

That’s the second biggest decline recorded by the New York-based research firm in 2011, surpassed only by August’s 36 point drop. The rate has now fallen in four of the 11 months of 2011.

Colorado foreclosure filings down 28.6% as 2011 draws to a close
It's likely, he said, that the state's processed the filings from most of Colorado's at-risk borrowers and that the foreclosures filed now are a primary function of joblessness.

Among the state's 12 largest counties, Mesa County recorded the sharpest year-to-date decline of 35.2 percent and Pueblo County posted the smallest drop of 12.5 percent.

Boulder and Broomfield counties' declines nearly mirrored those of the statewide average with drops of 26.7 percent and 27.1 percent, respectively.

Larimer County sees fewer foreclosure filings, sales than last year
The number of Coloradans losing their homes to foreclosure increased year-over-year in November for the first time in 14 months, but both filings and sales remain down by more than 20 percent so far this year.

Larimer County's foreclosure sales year-to-date dropped 12 percent compared to last year.

Colorado foreclosure filings down 28 percent
Foreclosure filings in Colorado through November were down 28.6 percent compared to the same 11-month period in 2010, the Colorado Division of Housing reported.

In Larimer County, foreclosure filings were down by 27.1 percent year-to-date, while Weld County filings were down 31.4 percent through the year, according to the report.

Larimer County foreclosure sales jump in November, but they're down 12 percent for the year

But according to a report from the Colorado Division of Housing released Tuesday, the sales of properties at auction, which represents the end of the foreclosure process, took a one-month jump of 47 percent in November in Larimer County over November 2010, and a 10 percent increase over October '11.

In Larimer County, 75 properties - most of them homes - reverted to the lender or were passed to a third party in November.

Delinquencies continue to decline in Colorado, spurring declines in foreclosures

2011-12-06T13:55:00.000-08:00

Today, we released the November foreclosure report for Colorado's metro counties. We've received some questions about the underlying factors behind the 28 percent decline we're seeing this year.

Much of it does have to do with the administrative "slow-down" in the processing of foreclosures that was initiated by the lenders themselves. That is not the only factor, however. As can be seen below, mortgage delinquencies in Colorado were down again during the third quarter.

According to the National Delinquency Survey, released last month by the Mortgage Bankers Association, the percentage of mortgage loans in some state of foreclosure (foreclosure inventory) in Colorado during this year's third quarter fell to 2.1 percent.

The third-quarter foreclosure inventory rate is now down from last year's third-quarter rate of 2.4 percent. The foreclosure inventory has fallen for three quarters in a row following an uptick in the foreclosure inventory during the fourth quarter of 2010.

The national foreclosure inventory rate was 4.43 percent during the third quarter of this year, continuing a trend in which the national foreclosure inventory rate has been above the Colorado rate since the fourth quarter of 2007. The national percentage of loans in foreclosure increased slightly from 4.39 percent during the third quarter of last year to 4.43 percent during the same period this year.

As noted in an earlier post, Colorado was 8th best in the nation for the percentage of loans that are either in foreclosure or are 90 or more days delinquent.

Similarly, only ten states reported higher percentages of loans that are in foreclosure.

The first graph shows the foreclosure inventory rate for each quarter since the fourth quarter of 2005. Colorado is in a generally downward trend that began after the fourth quarter of 2009. It is important to note, of course, that while Colorado is back to the foreclosure inventory rate it experienced in 2009, 2009 was not a good year for real estate and foreclosures, and the foreclosure inventory is still about double what it was in 2005.

Foreclosure inventory rate:
Colorado:
3rd Q 2011: 2.1
2nd Q 2011: 2.14
3rd Q 2010: 2.4
Most recent peak: 2.81, 4th Q 2009

US:
3rd Q 2011: 4.43
2nd Q 2011: 4.43
3rd Q 2010: 4.39
Most recent peak: 4.63, 1st Q 2010, or 4th Q 2010

To supplement the previous post on the inventory plus 90+ day delinquencies, I've included the chart below:

Percentage of loans that are either in foreclosure or are 90 or more days delinquent:
Colorado:
3rd Q 2011: 4.22
2nd Q 2011: 4.24
3rd Q 2010: 5.05
Most recent peak: 5.87, 4th Q 2009

US:
3rd Q 2011: 7.89
2nd Q 2011: 7.85
3rd Q 2010: 8.7
Most recent peak: 9.67, 4th Q 2009

30-day delinquencies

During the third quarter, new 30-day mortgage delinquencies fell year over year to the lowest third-quarter percentage recorded since 2006.

2.39 percent of all mortgage loans surveyed were 30-days delinquent during the third quarter, falling from 2010's third-quarter rate of 2.55.

In the graph below, the 30-day delinquency rate is broken out by year and by quarter. We can see that the 30-day delinquency rate is the lowest it's been during the third quarter since 2006. This suggests that new foreclosure filings in Colorado will continue to gradually decline.

We also can note that the the third third and fourth quarters tend to have the highest delinquency rates when compared to other quarters.

Corelogic: Colorado home prices fall 1.23 percent

2011-12-06T13:13:00.000-08:00

Home prices in Colorado fell 1.23 percent from October 2010 to October 2011, continuing a downward trend in home prices in Colorado and nationwide. Nevertheless, the degree to which home prices have declined has lessened each month for the past seven months. According to the October Home Price Index (HPI), released today by CoreLogic, the year-over-year decline for Colorado was the smallest decline in 16 months, and the drop for the Denver area was also the smallest in 16 months. However, the trend in negative year-over-year changes continues and year-over-year changes have been negative for each month since July 2010.

Nationally, the index fell 3.90 percent, and it fell 0.4 percent in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield metro area during the same period.

The first graph shows the year-over-year changes for the past 30 months in the US, Colorado and the Denver metro area. Over the past two years, the general trend in all three areas has been shaped by the home buyer tax credit, which was introduced in 2008 and expired in April 2010. Clearly, home prices climbed throughout the duration of the tax credit period, but have declined since the credit's expiration.

During most months in the past two years, the Colorado and metro Denver HPI have performed better (from a property owner's perspective) than the national HPI. The national HPI has declined more than the local HPIs in each month since September 2010.

This data for October suggests that, although the year-over-year declines have lessened in magnitude, home prices have not yet turned around in Colorado as of October 2011. Local Realtor data, as well as the Case-Shiller data, all show that in year-over-yea comparisons, home prices continue to fall when compared to the same month in the prior year. However, the Corelogic year-over-year changes are now close enough to zero to suggest that home prices are no longer declining, but are essentially flat in many markets.

New pending home sales data from NAR suggests some new strength in home sales transactions at the regional level in some areas, but in Colorado statewide, home sales activity through October remains about equal with 2009.

See the home price data archive for more.

Corelogic also provides one of the few publicly-available indices that looks at home prices in attached homes such as condos and townhomes. Among attached homes, home prices have fallen significantly more than is the case for all single-family properties. Although the combined single-family Colorado index fell by 1.2 percent, year-over-year for October, the same index for attached housing fell by 3.4 percent. In the metro Denver area, the index for attached homes fell 3.2 percent. As with the single-family combined index, the national rate of decline for attached homes was larger than the Colorado and Denver metro rates.

And finally, Corelogic provides a look at home prices with distressed properties excluded.

With distressed properties excluded, home prices actually increased from October 2010 to October 2011, with the Colorado index rising 0.1 percent year over year. During the same period, the national index fell 0.5 percent and the metro Denver index rose 1.2 percent.

The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average of August, September and October (with October weighted the most) and is not seasonally adjusted.

Unemployment in Greeley, Colo Springs and Pueblo areas above nat'l average

2011-12-06T08:58:00.000-08:00

The BLS released its report today on unemployment in 372 metro areas in the US. The data for Colorado is not different from the statewide report already released by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. The chart with local unemployment rates is here.

Nevertheless, the report does provide some comparisons with other metro areas in the nation. The map on the last page shows that the all metro areas in Colorado, except for Pueblo, Colorado Springs and Greeley have unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) below the national rate of 8.5 percent (not seasonally adjusted). during September, only Pueblo was above the national average, but the Colorado Springs and Greeley area moved back above the average in October. Grand Junction had a unemployment rate equal to the national rate at 8.5 percent.

The map:

Statewide, Colorado's unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) remains below the national rate for the seventh month in a row following a three month period(January-March 2011) during which Colorado's unemployment rate was higher than the nation's. Prior to January 2011, the unemployment rate in Colorado had been below the national rate for several years.

The Boulder and Fort Collins areas have posted better unemployment rates than the nation for quite some time. Denver has in the past several months dropped below the national rate.

National comparisons remain important insofar as perceptions of the local job market drive household creation in Colorado. As long as Colorado is perceived as being a better job market than many metro areas in the nation, such a perceptions will foster household creation and population growth in the state.

Housing News Digest, December 6

2011-12-06T08:18:00.000-08:00

Denver metro foreclosures up in November (Denver Post)
Foreclosure sales spiked in Colorado's most populated counties in November, even as new foreclosure filings continued their downward trend, the Colorado Division of Housing reported today.

There were 2,296 new foreclosure filings in November in the state's 12 metro counties, down 21.7 percent from 2,932 in November 2010 and 2.3 percent from October.

Foreclosure filings down (Fox21)
Pueblo County reported the smallest decline in filings with a decrease of only 12.5 percent from the first eleven months of 2010 to the same period of time this year.

In a statement a spokesman with the Colorado Division of Housing said that it looks like Colorado is going to end 2011 with fewer foreclosure than in 2010.

2011's foreclosure filings down 28 percent as year nears end (Coloradoan)
Foreclosure sales in Larimer County rose 47 percent in November compared to a year ago but filings dropped 37 percent.

Overall, sales and filings dropped in Larimer County in the first 11 months of the year compared to the same time frame in 2010.

However, comparing the first 11 months of this year to the same period last year, foreclosure filings were down 28.6 percent through November while foreclosure auction sales were down 20.7 percent.

November foreclosure sales rise in urban Colorado counties, but they’re down year to date (DBJ)
Colorado’s urban counties saw a year-over-year rise in foreclosure sales at auction last month for the first time in 14 months, but foreclosures for the first 11 months of 2011 are still well below 2010 levels, state officials reported Tuesday.

The latest monthly report from the Colorado Division of Housing covers the state’s 12 largest counties.

Supply of homes on market falls to nearly 7-year low

The number of single-family homes listed for sale last month in the Colorado Springs area fell to its lowest point in nearly seven years, while sales rose and prices fell — continuing recent trends in the local housing market.

Home listings in November plummeted to 3,667 — the fewest in any month since 3,557 in January 2005, according to a report released Monday by the Pikes Peak Association of Realtors.

Foreclosure filings down 28 percent as year nears end

2011-12-06T08:17:00.000-08:00

Foreclosure sales at auction increased year over year last month for the first time in 14 months, but both filings and sales remains down by more than 20 percent so far this year. According to a report released Tuesday by the Colorado Division of Housing, foreclosure auction sales in Colorado’s metropolitan counties were up 7.9 percent in November compared to November of last year. However, comparing the first eleven months of this year to the same period last year, foreclosure filings were down 28.6 percent through November while foreclosure auction sales were down 20.7 percent.

New foreclosure filings fell year over year during November with total filings dropping 21.7 percent from 2,932 filings in November 2010 to 2,296 filings in November of this year. Foreclosure auction sales increased during the same period from 1,195 to 1,290.

From October 2011 to November 2011, foreclosure filings fell 2.3 percent, and foreclosure sales at auction rose 37.5 percent.

Foreclosure auction sales through November fell year over year from 2010’s eleven-month total of 18,728 to 14,854 during the same period this year. Foreclosure filings were also down through November, falling to 23,556 filings year-to-date this year from last year’s eleven-month total of 32,982.

“It looks like the big decreases in foreclosure filings that we saw during the first half of the year are behind us, but even with some recent mild increases in new foreclosure activity, Colorado is still going to end 2011 with far fewer foreclosures than it saw during 2010, said Ryan McMaken, a spokesman with the Colorado Division of Housing. “From last fall through last summer, foreclosure activity was really pushed down by a lender-initiated slowdown in foreclosure processing, but the effects of that seem to be lessening now.”

Year-to-date through November, the counties with the largest decreases in foreclosure filings, year-over-year, were Mesa County and Denver County, where filings decreased by 35.2 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively. Pueblo County reported the smallest decline in filings with a decrease of 12.5 percent from the first eleven months of 2010 to the same period this year. All counties surveyed reported year-over-year decreases in foreclosure filings.

For the first eleven months of this year, all counties also showed decreases in foreclosure auction sales when compared to the same period last year. The counties with the largest decreases in foreclosure auction sales, year-over-year, were Broomfield County and Adams County, where auction sales decreased by 40.3 percent and 27.0 percent, respectively. Pueblo County reported the smallest decline in auction sales with a decrease of 9.1 percent from the first eleven months of 2010 to the same period this year.

The county with the highest rate of foreclosure sales during November was Adams County with a rate of 681 households per foreclosure sale. Mesa County came in second with 792 households per foreclosure sale. The lowest rate was found in Boulder County where there were 3,402 households per foreclosure sale.

The Division of Housing’s monthly foreclosure report surveys foreclosure activity in the twelve largest counties of Colorado. The report is a supplement to the Division’s quarterly foreclosure report that includes all counties in Colorado.

Housing News Digest, December 5

2011-12-05T08:27:00.000-08:00

Can Affordable Housing Be Eco-Friendly, Too?

Eco-friendly, affordable housing. That might sound like an oxymoron, but it’s exactly what is in the works just east of downtown Denver. KTGY Group Architecture+Planning has announced construction of the Bluff Lake Apartments, a residential community of 92 high-quality, eco-friendly units. The project is a partnership between the architects, affordable housing developer Mercy House and the city of Denver.

The apartments are slated for families who are earning between 30 percent and 50 percent of the area median income and are expected to be completed in the spring of 2012. The apartment’s green features include Energy Star appliances, energy-efficient lighting and water-saving fixtures. In addition, low volatile organic compound paints, adhesives and finishes are being used inside and much of the construction waste will be recycled.

GMAC Counters Lawsuit with Decision to Pull Lending in Massachusetts
Ally Financial’s GMAC Mortgage says it will stop doing business with third-party lenders in Massachusetts.

The announcement was made just one day after the state’s attorney general said she has filed a lawsuit against GMAC and four other mortgage servicers over documentation and recording errors related to foreclosures.

November bank failures tied to CRE exposure, more closures to come
The five banks that failed in November were victims of exposure to commercial real estate, analytics firm Trepp LLC said Monday.

The November data follow the pattern exhibited throughout 2011, in which bank failures spiked in the month following the end of a quarter and then dropped during the subsequent two months. Eleven banks failed in October — also because of CRE exposure.

Homebuilding up, foreclosures down in November
The pace of homebuilding increased last month in the Colorado Springs area while foreclosure filings fell, continuing a positive trend for the local housing market over the past few months.

Single-family homebuilding permits in El Paso County totaled 122 in November, up 27.1 percent from the same month last year, according to figures released Thursday by the Pikes Peak Regional Building Department. Year-over-year permit totals have increased in five of the last six months.

Year-to-date, single-family permits now are running slightly ahead of the total for the same period last year — 1,319 during the first 11 months of 2011 compared with 1,308 during the same time in 2010.

Glenwood Springs may consider hiring economic development director
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, Colorado — It may be time for the city of Glenwood Springs to actively pursue economic development by hiring a person to oversee such efforts.

Several City Council members were open to the idea during a broad discussion on strategies to attract new businesses to Glenwood Springs during the Dec. 1 council meeting.

Housing News Digest, December 2

2011-12-02T14:07:00.000-08:00

Housing Market Lags Other Areas Of Recovery
The housing industry continues to be a drag on the economy. David Wessel, economics editor of The Wall Street Journal, talks to Steve Inskeep about the state of the housing market, and possible action the administration might take to boost this critical sector of the economy.

Stalled growth: Down economy slows some subdivisions in Fruita area

When the local economy was booming a few years ago, new subdivisions sprang up across the Grand Valley like dandelions in the spring.

In some subdivisions, developers extended themselves financially to pay for infrastructure construction and couldn’t hang onto the lots when prices dropped and buyers disappeared. At other subdivisions, lot and home prices were lowered to continue to attract new interest.

Colorado State's Everitt Real Estate Center Conference asks 'Are Governments Shrinking Their Real Estate Portfolios?' Dec. 8

FORT COLLINS - Government’s management and role in real estate ownership can deeply impact the economic outlook of a city, state or even an entire nation. In today’s challenging economic climate, state and local governments’ budgets are even more constrained, which may impact future acquisitions and dispositions of existing portfolios.

This topic will be discussed at Colorado State’s Everitt Real Estate Center conference “Government and Real Estate: Regulatory Impacts vs. Future Opportunities.” The event will be held from 8- 9:30 a.m. on Dec. 8 at North Ballroom Room of the Lory Student Center on campus. Public and private residential and commercial real estate professionals are welcome.

A look at the state of Colorado mountain resorts
Mountain resorts always have played a big role in the Colorado economy and in the lives of Coloradans. They contribute significantly to Colorado’s tourism economy, through real estate sales as well as through skiing and other activity revenue.

Front Range skiers and out-of-state visitors generate that revenue. This is a look at the condition of the mountain real estate market in the last few years, the impact of the 2008 recession, the impact of I-70 traffic, how the resorts are dealing with these challenges and what they see in their future.

Declines in U.S. construction employment, amid a weak housing market, are tempering optimism over a sharp drop in the unemployment rate, staffing industry executives said.

Analysis: Weak housing tempers U.S. jobs optimism
U.S. housing is dragging on economic growth despite signs that the economic recovery is gaining some traction. The U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly dipped to 8.6 percent last month, while the gain of 120,000 non-farm jobs was roughly in line with forecasts.

LPS Mortgage Monitor: Colorado 6th-best in the nation for non-current loans

2011-12-01T12:57:00.000-08:00

According to the October 2011 report released today by LPS Applied Analytics, there were 3.9 million loans in the US that were either in foreclosure or were more than 90-days delinquent during October of this year. Delinquencies were down 28 percent from the peak during October, but the foreclosure inventory remained at historic highs.

Nationally, the percentage of active mortgage loans that were non-current during October was 12.2 percent, which was down 7.5 percent from the same period last year.

In Colorado, the percentage of active mortgage loans that were non-current during October was 6.7 percent, which was down 13.3 from the same period last year. Colorado's year-over-year decline in non-current loans was the 8th largest in the nation. Only Nevada,Michigan, Arizona, California, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming showed larger declines.

Only five states reported lower percentages of non-current loans than Colorado, making Colorado 6th-best in the nation for the percentage of its mortgage loans that were non-current during October 2011. Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Alaska and North Dakota reported lower percentages of non-current loans during October.

LPS Mortgage Monitor is an in-depth report of mortgage industry performance. The monthly report is based on data from the company’s market-leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information, including more than 40 million active loans across the credit spectrum. This data is analyzed by LPS experts to produce more than 30 charts and graphs reflecting both trend and point-in-time performance observations.

Regional Comparisons: October 2011 employment in Colorado

2011-12-01T12:22:00.000-08:00

Total employment in the state in October was up for the fifth month in a row in the year-over-year comparisons. In October, total employment in Colorado was down 114,000 from the July 2008 peak. Employment trends in various regions of the state differ, however, so this article looks at which regions of the state have the highest unemployment rates, and which regions have recovered the most in their labor markets.

Regional employment trends can also provide us with some insights into local housing demand since, all things being equal, those areas with the most robust labor demand will also have the strongest demand for housing. This would be reflected in apartment vacancy rates and in median home price and home sales transactions, among other indicators.

The first graph compares unemployment rates in Colorado's metro areas.

The regional unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) for October 2011 are:
Colorado Springs, 8.6%
Denver-Aurora, 7.8%
Fort Collins-Loveland, 6.1%
Grand Junction, 8.5%
Greeley, 8.7%
Pueblo, 9.4%
Statewide, 7.7%

Since mid-2009, The Fort Collins-Loveland area has consistently shown one of the lowest unemployment rates while Grand Junction and Pueblo have generally shown the highest rates.

Year over year, the unemployment rate decreased in all metro areas. In Pueblo, where the highest metro unemployment rate was found, the rate decreased from 10.0 percent to 9.4 percent, year over year. In the Fort Collins-Loveland area, where the rates were lowest, the unemployment rate fell from 6.8 percent to 6.1 percent during the same period.

The unemployment rate is a reflection of both the total number of employed persons and the total size of the labor force, so the unemployment rate can decrease even in times of falling total employment if the size of the labor force decreases as well.

To provide some additional context, we can look to see how far below total employment levels are below the most recent peak in employment in each region. The peak time differs in each region. For example, the labor market peaked in mid-2007 in the Colorado Springs area, but it did not peak until late 2008 in the Grand Junction area.

The following numbers reflect how far below the most recent peak are the October 2011 employment totals:

Colorado Springs MSA, 7.0%
Denver-Aurora MSA, 4.3%
Fort Collins-Loveland MSA, 2.3%
Grand Junction MSA, 12.4%
Greeley MSA 5.3%
Pueblo MSA, 0.01%

All things being equal, the areas further below the peak have recovered the least from initial job losses.

By far, Grand Junction remains the furthest below peak levels.

Pueblo is now essentially equal to its peak employment levels, although Pueblo already had a relatively weak job market during the peak period, which would explain why Pueblo continues to be among the areas with the highest unemployment rates. Job growth in the Pueblo area has also outpaced the state overall in recent months. The Fort Collins-Loveland area, on the other hand, is now 2.3 percent below its peak, and is also the metro area with the lowest unemployment rate.

(Note: If we include the Boulder-Longmont MSA, we find that the Boulder area has consistently been among the areas with the lowest unemployment rate. In October 2011, the rate in the Boulder-Longmont area was 5.9%.)

Impact on Housing

The metro areas with the most job growth should generally also be the areas with the most demand for housing. We do see this reflected to a certain extent in the apartment vacancy data and in job growth.

We expect the demand for housing to continue to be strongest in the Fort Collins-Loveland area and in metro Denver.

Colorado has 25th-best unemployment rate in nation

2011-12-01T11:35:00.000-08:00

The Bureau of Labor Statistics last week released employment information on all states.

According to the BLS press release:

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed or slightly lower in October. Thirty-six states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases, five states posted rate increases, and nine states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty states registered unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier, eight states and the District of Columbia had increases, and two states experienced no change. The national jobless rate was little changed at 9.0 percent, but was 0.7 percentage point lower than a year earlier.

Colorado was among the 36 states that reported decreases in the unemployment rate. 25 states reported unemployment rates that were higher than Colorado's, including California, Nevada, Florida and Michigan.

Colorado's unemployment rate has moved below the national rate for the seventh month in a row following a three month period(January-March 2011) during which Colorado's unemployment rate was higher than the nation's. Prior to January 2011, the unemployment rate in Colorado had been below the national rate for several years.

The graph shows a comparison between the two rates since 2006:

The unemployment rate in Colorado fell from September to October, dropping from 8.3 percent to 8.1 percent, according to the seasonally-adjusted numbers. The national rate also fell to 9.0 percent.

The BLS map below shows state-by-state comparisons.

Within the Rocky Mountain region, Colorado has the third highest unemployment rate:
Arizona, 9.0%
Colorado, 8.1%
Idaho, 8.8%
Montana, 7.6%
New Mexico, 6.6%
Utah, 7.0%
Wyoming, 5.7%

With Colorado's unemployment rate below the national rate, Colorado may continue to be seen as a desirable location for job seekers. This may in turn impact overall household formation in Colorado and the demand for housing.

Colorado remains in the middle of the pack when it comes to statewide unemployment rates. At the regional level, however, Colorado contains some metro areas that have unemployment rate well below the national rate, such as the Boulder area and the Fort Collins area.

FHFA: Home prices fall 4.8 percent during September in Mountain region

2011-12-01T11:22:00.000-08:00

House prices in September in the Mountain region, which includes Colorado, fell 4.8 percent, year-over-year. Nationally, the house price index fell 2.1 percent. The new house price index numbers, released yesterday by the Federal Housing and Finance Agency, also showed that the national index is down 18.1 percent from the peak level reached in June 2007, while the Mountain region's index is down 31.4 percent over the same period.

The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses purchased with loans that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. It is a repeat-sales index similar to the Case-Shiller index, but limited to GSE loans.

The decline in house prices reflects overall trends also found in other home price indices such as the CoreLogic index and the Case-Shiller index. According to FHFA, prices have largely stabilized over the past several months, but remain slightly down from 2009 and 2010 levels.

The second chart shows each month's house price index compared to the same month a year earlier:

We can note that the Mountain region has performed more poorly (from a seller's perspective) than the national index. This runs contrary to some local experience and some statistics. The Case-Shiller data for the Denver metro area, for example shows that local prices did not decline as much as the national composite index following the financial panic in 2008. Also, the FHFA "expanded-data" index shows Colorado performing better than the national index.

Since we're looking at regional, data, however, we have to keep in mind that this data reflects house prices in Arizona and Nevada, and this no doubt will continue to put downward pressure on regional prices for now.

Nevertheless, the overall trend among most home price indices is one of slow downward movement in home prices. This trend includes Colorado statewide as well as the metro Denver area.

FHFA: Colorado house prices fall 1.5 percent in Colorado during third quarter

2011-12-01T11:00:00.000-08:00

Colorado's House Price (Expanded-Data) Index (HPI), measured by the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA), fell 1.5 percent from the third quarter of 2010 to the same period this year. According to the third quarter 2011 HPI, released Tuesday by FHFA, the home price index for Colorado, in year-over-year comparisons, has fallen for the fifth quarter in a row while the national index has fallen for the 18th quarter in a row.

The Colorado HPI has now down 13.6 percent from the peak in the state's HPI which was reached during the third quarter of 2006. The national index is down 23 percent from its peak, which it also reached during the third quarter of 2006.

The HPI for the United States fell 2.8 percent from the third quarter of 2010 to the same period this year, and the national HPI has not shown a year-over-year increase since the first quarter of 2007.

The first graph shows the Colorado HPI compared to the US HPI since 2001. Since the peak period, the US HPI has fallen farther than the Colorado index.

In this index, the US price index can be described as slightly more "bubble-like" than the Colorado index which did not experience a run up in prices to the same degree as was the case in the national index. Although Colorado's index is higher, the index value increased much more from 2001 to the peak nationally than in Colorado. From 2001 to the third quarter of 2006, the national HPI increased 51 percent, while it only increased 23 percent in Colorado. In turn, the correction has been more severe nationally.

In the second graph is shown the year-over-year change in the HPI for both Colorado and the US. This more fully shows to what degree the HPI has fallen in recent year for both Colorado and the US. With the exception of the first quarter of 2011, the national HPI has fallen farther than the Colorado HPI in every quarter since the third quarter of 2007.

Overall, this index suggests that, since 2007, overall home prices in Colorado have been more resilient than has been the case nationally. In Colorado, there was even a brief period of increasing prices, year over year, in late 2009 and early 2010.

The index values presented and analyzed in this article are not seasonally adjusted.

Note: During the second quarter, the Federal Housing and Finance Agency released, for the first time, its Expanded-Data House Price Index. The new index is "Estimated using Enterprise, FHA, and Real Property County Recorder Data Licensed from DataQuick[.]"

In other words, the data source is much more broad than the old index which relied only on GSE information.

However, at the metro-are level, we'll still need to rely on the older GSE-data index until FHFA expands its new index into the metro areas.

Housing News Digest, December 1

2011-12-01T08:08:00.000-08:00

Colorado in top 10 of states with negative equity

SANTA ANA, Calif. - Colorado is ranked No. 10 on California-based CoreLogic's list of the states with the highest negative home equity in the third quarter of 2011.

The report cited Greeley as having one of the highest rates of negative equity in the state, with 38.1 percent - or 20,573 - of all residential properties with a mortgage in negative equity during the quarter.

Broomfield eyeing ways to keep rent within reach
With deadlines looming for the city to claim some federal housing grant dollars for 2012, City Council on Tuesday directed staff to prepare a housing action plan to the development and preservation of local affordable housing.

The most controversial aspect of the discussion Tuesday focused on using $55,000 -- 31 percent of possible Community Development Block Grant money -- to help keep apartment rents low by working with nonprofits and private developers. The idea is variation of a plan council rejected in August, which would have had the city purchase and manage rental properties to ensure lower rents.

Vail Resorts narrows expansion plans to ski areas
Vail Resorts is opting for snow over sand, narrowing any new additions to its tony Rock Resorts portfolio to only its ski areas.

"The current economic and real estate environments make it difficult to realize the benefits of growing our lodging division outside of our mountain resorts and the National Parks," Rob Katz, chairman and chief executive of Vail Resorts, said in a statement released Wednesday. "We believe that by narrowing the focus of our Lodging segment, we will provide an enhanced experience for our guests and better long-term profitability."

Inspector general says housing regulator failed to stop Fannie, Freddie mortgage issues
WASHINGTON — A government watchdog said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac improperly foreclosed on homeowners and cost the government billions of dollars by not holding major banks to strict underwriting requirements.

The report released Tuesday also said the Federal Housing Finance Agency gave “undue deference” to Fannie and Freddie officials and didn’t scrutinize more than $35 million in bonuses and compensation to Fannie and Freddie executives.

Pending home sales rise 6.6 percent in West for October

2011-11-30T15:49:00.000-08:00

Pending home sales in the western US in October rose 6.6 percent year over year, according to new pending home sales data released today by the National Association of Realtors. According to the press release:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said improved contract activity is a hopeful sign. “Home sales have been plodding along at a sub-par level while interest rates are hovering at record lows and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who normally would have entered the market in recent years. We hope this is indicates more buyers are taking advantage of the excellent affordability conditions,” he said.

The pending home sales index for the western region of the US, which includes Colorado, rose from 105.3 to 112.3, year over year, while the national index rose 7.3 percent from 84.0 to 90.1, year over year.

All regions of the country showed gains in pending home sales, year over year.

Month to month, the pending home sales index fell 5.0 percent in the West and rose 8.3 percent nationally. The west was the only region to report a month-to-month decline in pending sales although sales activity tends to generally fall from September to October.

The West showed the second-smallest increase in the index among all regions, after the Northeast which showed an increase of 1.5 percent. The Midwest showed the biggest gains with a year-over-year increase of 10.8 percent.

Pending home sales help us predict future closings, so this news suggests that closings in November may be stronger in 2011 in the year-over-year comparisons.

An analysis of 12-month moving averages for home sales closings through September in Colorado showed an ongoing and slow decline of overall sales activity in the state. See here for more. The statewide data has shown more weakness in home sales activity than has the regional NAR data in recent months.

Beige Book: real estate in Kansas City District remained "sluggish"

2011-11-30T15:30:00.000-08:00

Real Estate and Construction
Residential and commercial real estate activity remained generally sluggish in October and early November. Housing starts dropped from the previous survey, with construction of higher-priced homes particularly weak. Expectations for future homebuilding remained slow, and materials were generally available. Sales at residential construction supply firms improved somewhat, driven in part by an increase in remodeling as more consumers updated existing homes. Home sales picked up slightly but remained weak overall. Expectations for future home sales were more positive than in previous months, and home inventories drifted lower as home prices continued to ease in most areas. Mortgage lending activity was positive and remained above year-ago levels, though some contacts reported continued buyer financing difficulties. Commercial real estate activity edged higher from the previous survey, but remained sluggish overall with little further improvement expected. Vacancy rates dropped slightly, though they were expected to rise somewhat in future months. Office prices and rents increased but remained below year-ago levels, and expectations were flat. One contact in Joplin, Missouri noted considerable building activity as a result of the devastating tornado in that area last spring.

Banking
Most bankers reported steady or stronger loan demand, stable or improving loan quality, and increased deposits compared with the previous survey. Overall loan demand increased marginally as demand for commercial and residential real estate loans strengthened, demand for consumer installment loans declined, and demand for commercial and industrial loans weakened slightly. Credit standards remained largely unchanged in all major loan categories, and deposits increased for the seventh straight survey. Bankers generally reported loan quality as steady or improving compared to a year ago, with even more improvement expected for the next six months.

Housing News Digest, November 30

2011-11-30T15:20:00.000-08:00

New home market picking up

A housing report released Tuesday afternoon provides the latest sign that the worst may be over for the Denver-area home building market, the hardest-hit sector of the local and national economies.

Home builders in the metro area – from Boulder to Castle Rock, Erie to Englewood – pulled 2,959permits in the first 10 months of the year for single-family detached houses, 2 percent more than the 2,896 during the same period in 2010, according to the report by the HBA of Metro Denver.

Vail Resorts to narrow focus of lodging division
Vail Resorts Inc. on Wednesday announced a “strategic shift” for its lodging division, saying it plans to focus on adding properties at its ski resorts and Grand Teton National Park rather than elsewhere, and anticipates staff cuts in the division.

Ethics Watch files complaint against public trustee association over contributions

An ethics watchdog group filed a complaint today charging the Pubic Trustees Association of Colorado with wrongly accepting contributions from companies and individuals they did business with, then using the funds to pay convention expenses at a Black Hawk casino.

MIG Real Estate Acquires Denver Rosemont Ridge Multi-Family Community for $29.7 Million
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. & DENVER, Nov 29, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- MIG Real Estate, LLC, a Newport Beach, Calif.-based real estate investment company, has acquired Rosemont Ridge at Lowry, an amenity-rich multi-family housing community in Denver, Colorado. The 240-unit community includes 242,562 square feet of rentable space and is located near the master-planned communities of Lowry and Stapleton in a highly desirable, infill area of Denver. The transaction reflects MIG's investment strategy, which focuses on real estate opportunities in the western states with upside potential.

Housing Recovery Hinges on Household-Formation Gain, Case Says
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home prices won’t recover until the economy improves enough to boost the number of households and clear an oversupply of properties, said economist Karl Case, co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

“Normally, the way we’ve cleared the market is we’ve had more household formation,” Case, a retired Wellesley College professor, said in an interview today with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance.” Lackluster economic growth has encouraged people to move in with friends or family, meaning “demand is not going anywhere,” he said.

Corelogic: 20 percent of Colorado homes underwater

2011-11-29T12:27:00.000-08:00

Colorado is tenth in the nation for the percentage of its mortgages that were underwater during the third quarter. According to a report released today by CoreLogic,20 percent of homes with mortgages in Colorado had a "negative equity share."

Of the 1.15 million mortgages outstanding in Colorado, 234,200 of them were underwater, while an additional 88,600, or 7.7 percent of them, were "near" underwater.

Nationwide, 22 percent of loans were underwater during the third quarter and an additional 5 percent were nearly so.

The only states with higher percentages of combined negative equity and near negative equity are Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Georgia, California, Virginia, Ohio and Maryland. This makes Colorado 10th in the nation, although Idaho, Illinois and Utah all have rates very similar to Colorado.

According to the report:

Nevada has the highest negative equity percentage with 58 percent of all of its mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Arizona (47 percent), Florida (44 percent), Michigan (35 percent) and Georgia (30 percent). This is the first quarter that Georgia entered the top five, surpassing California which had been in the top five since tracking began in 2009.

The top five states combined have an average negative equity ratio of 41.4 percent, while the remaining states have a combined average negative equity ratio of 17.6 percent.

Comparisons with the third quarter of 2010:

During the third quarter of 2010, 19.6 of Colorado's mortgages were underwater and an additional 8.1 percent were "near" underwater.

Out of a total of 1.12 million mortgages, 221,000 mortgages were underwater, and an additional 91,000 were "near" underwater.

Corelogic: 20 percent of Colorado homes underwater

2011-11-29T09:43:00.000-08:00

Nevada has the highest negative equity percentage with 58 percent of all of its mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Arizona (47 percent), Florida (44 percent), Michigan (35 percent) and Georgia (30 percent). This is the first quarter that Georgia entered the top five, surpassing California which had been in the top five since tracking began in 2009.

The top five states combined have an average negative equity ratio of 41.4 percent, while the remaining states have a combined average negative equity ratio of 17.6 percent.

Comparisons with the third quarter of 2010:

During the third quarter of 2010, 19.6 of Colorado's mortgages were underwater and an additional 8.1 percent were "near" underwater.