Friday, February 7, 2014

Philly Fed: Colorado Coincident Index Inches Below National Index

According to the Philadelphia Fed, the 3-month change in the Colorado Coincident Index, 0.78 percent, fell slightly for slightly below the national 3-month change of 0.79 percent. Practically speaking, the two indices increased at the same rate over the 3-month period ending in December. This continues a trend, mentioned last month, in which we concluded that the Colorado coincident index was showing a trend of moderating in its growth rate and converging toward the national growth rate in the index. The first graph shows the 3-month change in the index for Colorado and the nation:

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in the coincident index for Colorado and the nation. Here we see a similar trend with Colorado's growth moving toward more closely mirroring that of the nation. In December, the YOY growth rate was 3.5 percent and the national growth rate was 3.0 percent. 

Compared to all other states, Colorado fell in about the middle of the pack, with only Montana and South Dakota showing declines in the index over the 3-month period. According to the Philly Fed's press release:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2013. In the  past month, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in four states, and remained stable in five, for a one-month  diffusion index of 74. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in three, and remained stable  in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 86. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar  coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index rose 0.3 percent in December and 0.8  percent over the past three months.