Friday, November 29, 2013

Vacancy and Rent Survey: Colorado Springs 3rd Q 2013

Vacancy and Rent Survey: Colorado Springs 3rd Q 2013

Case-Shiller: September home price index for metro Denver up 9.9 percent

The Case-Shiller index was up in metro Denver, year over year, for the 21st month in a row, rising to 147.3. In August, the year over year change was 10 percent.

The index rose to 146.3, which was the highest index number ever reported.  The first graph shows the index has exceeded even the peak reached during the 2003-2007 housing boom:

The next graph shows the metro Denver index next to the 20-city composite index. We can see that the metro Denver area did not see a bubble to the same degree as the composite index. In recent months, however, Denver appears to be following a trajectory similar to that of the larger index: 

The third graph shows year over year changes for both metro Denver and the 20-city composite index. For much of 2010, Denver was outpacing the overall index, but in recent months, the larger index has pulled ahead in terms of growth rates. The Denver index's year over year growth turned positive before the 20-city index, and has remained positive longer. 

The final graph shows in more detail the year over year change in the metro Denver index. We can see that the growth rate is at the highest level seen since at least 2006. In fact, we have to go back to August 2001 to find a year over year growth rate that is as high as September 2013. Clearly, home prices continue on an upward trajectory in the face of continued inflows of new residents, low interest rates, and a stable employment situation in the area. 


Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Both single-family and multifamily permits up 25 percent this year

The Census Bureau released both September and October housing permit totals this week, and we see few surprises here with a continuation of the overall growth trend we've seen since 2009.

The first graph shows month-to-month totals for single-family and multifamily permits. We see the overall upward trend and a clear seasonal pattern in single-family. Single-family has already peaked for the year. Comparing October 2013 to October 2012, single-family permits were up 4.3 percent and multifamily permits were up 109 percent.

Month to month numbers can be very volatile, however, so if we look at the first ten months of the year combined, as we see in the second graph, we find that in both single-family and multifamily that the increase is 25 percent. This is a solid, but more moderate, increase than what we saw in permit growth from 2011 to 2012 when multifamily permits rose by 85 percent. From 2011 to 2012, single-family permits grew 41 percent.   YTD through October: 

The third graph shows single-family permits separated out by month and year. Note that October 2013's single-family total was at a six-year high for the month. We have to go back to October 2007 to find a more active October for single-family permits. There were 1306 single-family permits during October 2013 and 1252 during October 2012. 

The last graph shows multifamily monthly totals, and in this case we see that October 2013 was also a very active month for multifamily permits compared to previous recent Octobers. In this case, October 2013 was a 5-year high in multifam permits,  and was up to 777 during October 2013 from October 2012's total of 371. 


Not surprisingly, growth in permits is not matching that of last year, which was a very heated year in terms of growth over 2011. Nevertheless, the numbers point toward continued growth in new housing production for now.

Housing News Digest, November 27

Rent up, no vacancy: Young folks just want to move downtown As a young, single and freshly transplanted Coloradan, I’m no stranger to the woes of apartment hunting — as well as the dread of paying subsequent rent and utility bills. The Apartment Association of Southern Colorado released earlier this month its third-quarter “Colorado Springs Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Study,” which noted that our rents are higher than ever and that our vacancy rates are sitting at a 12-year low, meaning that such woes are on the rise.

  Apartment vacancies in Greeley hit 18-year low GREELEY - Apartment vacancy rates in Greeley hit an 18-year low of 1.3 percent during the third quarter, the Colorado Division of Housing said Wednesday. Greeley saw its lowest vacancy rate since 1995 as well as improved from a 3.1 percent vacancy rate during the third quarter of 2012, according to a Division of Housing report.

  Front Range apartment vacancies continue to fall as rents rise Apartment vacancies were low across Colorado's Front Range but soared in areas such as Steamboat Springs and Glenwood Springs during the third quarter, according to a report released by the Colorado Division of Housing on Wednesday. Rents, overall, increased.

  Colorado foreclosures dive in October Foreclosure filings were down 55.2 percent in Colorado metro counties during October, falling to the lowest level since the Colorado Division of Housing began collecting monthly totals in 2007, the agency reported Monday. In addition, foreclosure auction sales in Colorado's metro counties were down 68.7 percent in October compared with a year earlier, dropping from 1,399 to 438.

  Colorado’s urban foreclosure filings hit record low In Denver County alone, October’s foreclosure filings totaled 98, down 55.3 percent from a year earlier, and sales were down 82.8 percent, to 33. The numbers primarily are for foreclosure of residential properties, although less than 3 percent are for commercial properties and vacant land.

Apartment vacancies in Greeley hit 18 year low as market tightens across Front Range

Apartment vacancy rates across Colorado’s Front Range remained low during the third quarter, with northern Colorado’s markets reporting occupancy rates of more than 97 percent in most submarkets, and Greeley hitting near an all-time low in vacancy.

According to a report released Wednesday by the Colorado Division of Housing, the vacancy rate was 2.8 percent in the Fort Collins-Loveland area and only 1.3 percent in Greeley, which was the lowest vacancy rate reported in Greeley since 1995.

The vacancy rate fell, year over year, in Colorado Springs and in Pueblo, signaling growing demand for apartments in all Colorado metros except Grand Junction.

“The Fort Collins market has been tight for several years at this point, and continues to be so, but in just 18 months, Greeley has gone from being a market with only moderate demand to a very tight one,” said Ryan McMaken, an economist with the Colorado Division of Housing. “As usual, employment is a major driver in all metros, as is the fact that new multifamily construction has only recently begun to pick up in Greeley.”

In Colorado Springs, the vacancy rate fell to 5.4 percent from last year’s third-quarter rate of 6.1 percent, and in Pueblo, the rate fell to 9.3 percent during the third quarter from 15.8 percent a year earlier. Grand Junction’s vacancy rate remained relatively high at 7.8 percent reflecting a shrinking labor force and flat employment totals over the past year in that metro area.

The metro Denver vacancy rate, measured in a separate survey, was 4.4 percent, up from 4.3 percent during the third quarter of 2012.

The average rent increased, year over year, in all metros except Grand Junction from the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2013. The largest increase was found in Colorado Springs where the average rent rose 5.4 percent, year over year, with Greeley’s average rent increasing 5.1 percent over the same period.

“Although vacancies are quite low there, we did see rent growth flatten out in the Fort Collins-Loveland area,” McMaken said. “That’s one of the few metros where we’ve seen a significant amount of new construction in recent years, so new supply is helping a little to moderate rents.”

Average rents in all metropolitan areas measured for the first quarter of 2013 were Colorado Springs; $830, Ft. Collins/Loveland, $1043; Grand Junction, $577; Greeley, $728; Pueblo, $597. The average rent in metro Denver, measured last month in a separate survey, was $1,048. 


Monday, November 25, 2013

Trulia: asking rents down in Colo. Springs, up in metro Denver

According to the Trulia price monitor and rent monitor, the asking rent for rental housing was down 0.1 percent in Colorado Springs, from October 2012 to October 2013, but it rose 4.7 percent in metro Denver during the same period.

From October 2012 to October 2013, the Trulia index for asking prices in for-sale housing rose 10.0 percent in metro Denver and rose 4.6 percent in Colorado Springs.

As we've seen for the past several month, the real estate economy is stronger in metro Denver than in Colorado Springs, and these numbers appear to reflect that.

The national indices for asking rents and asking prices, as reported by Trulia, showed a 11.7 percent increase in asking prices, when measured year over year from October 2012 to October 2013. Asking rents rose over the same period by 2.7 percent. So Colorado Springs lags both metro Denver and the nation overall in asking rents and asking prices.

Colorado foreclosures dive again in October

Foreclosure filings were down 55.2 percent in Colorado metro counties during October 2013, falling to the lowest level recorded in any month since the Division of Housing began collecting monthly totals in 2007.  According to a report released Monday by the Colorado Division of Housing, foreclosure auction sales in Colorado’s metropolitan counties were down 68.7 percent in October compared to October of last year, dropping from 1,399 to 438.  Over the same period, foreclosure filings dropped from 1,880 to 843.

For the first ten months of the year, from January through October, foreclosure filings were down 47.2 percent in 2013 when compared to the same period last year. Foreclosure auction sales were down 41.7 percent over the same period.

Foreclosure filings are the initial filing that begins the foreclosure process, and foreclosure auction sales totals are the total number of foreclosures that have been sold at auction at the end of the foreclosure process.

“October’s drop was the largest year-over-year decline we’ve seen in the seven-year history of the report,” said Ryan McMaken, an economist for the Colorado Division of Housing. “Foreclosure activity is quickly moving toward what we consider to be a ‘normal’ rate.”  

Comparing the first ten months of this year with the same period last year, the counties with the largest drops in foreclosure filings were Douglas, Boulder, Broomfield, and Araphoe counties, which all reported year-over-year drops of 50 percent or more. All counties surveyed reported declines for the first ten months of this year compared to the same period last year. The smallest decline in foreclosure filings was in Pueblo County where filings fell 30.6 percent, year over year.

All counties surveyed showed decreases in foreclosure auction sales during the first ten months of this year when compared to the same period last year.  The counties with the largest decreases in foreclosure auction sales, year over year, were Denver County and Adams County where auction sales decreased by 51.4 percent and 49.4 percent, respectively. Pueblo County, which reported the smallest decline over the period, reported a decrease of 27.0 percent.


The county with the highest rate of foreclosure sales during October was Mesa County with a rate of 846 households per foreclosure sale. Pueblo County came in second with 1,355 households per foreclosure sale. The lowest rate was found in Boulder County where there were 10,273 households per foreclosure sale. 

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Vacancy and Rent Survey for Metro Denver, 3rd Q 2013

Vacancy and Rent Survey for Metro Denver, 3rd Q 2013:

Friday, November 22, 2013

Household Survey: Unemployment rate driven down by stagnant workforce, modest employment gains

For the first time since 2010, Colorado's workforce declined year over year during October. According to the Household employment survey for Colorado, released today by the BLS and the Colorado Dept. of Labor and Employment, there were 2.74 million persons in the workforce during October, compared to 2.76 million during October 2013. The first graph shows the work force in each month of each year. We can see that the workforce declined from October 2012, following several years of increases.

Admittedly, the Household survey employs a relatively small sample size, so so let's take a three month moving average instead to smooth things out a little.  The second graph shows the three month movin gaverage in the labor force size. Here we see that  growth is still positive, but is at the lowest level recorded since February 2011. So, it's clear that labor force growth is at the very least weakening, and has possible gone negative in October. 

The third graph simply shows total labor force versus total employment as measured by the household survey. Here, we can note that the labor force size is more or less back to where it was during the the peak of July 2008, and that we also see that total employment remains below that July 2008 peak in employment. Indeed, total employment in this measure is down 56,000 jobs from the peak, or 2.1 percent. This contrasts with the Establishment Survey that shows showed payroll employment at a new high for October. Nevertheless, these numbers suggest some ongoing weakness in the labor market outside the large employers that are measured by the Establishment survey. in this survey there were 2.57 million employed persons during October compared to 2.56 million employed during October 2012. The year-over-year gain was 13,000. 

In the next graph, we can see that the year over year gain of 13,000 was one of the smaller gains in recent years. In the graph we see that the October 2013 employment totals was indeed up from all other October totals since 2009, but also that the gain from 2012 to 2013 was rather small compared to other recent months. 

The fifth graph shows that the three month moving average in total employment through October 2013 was the smallest year-over-year increase in employment since January.

The unemployment rate is calculated by looking at employment as a proportion of those people who want to be employed. The gains in total employment have been modest, but the decline in the labor force helped to push down the unemployment rate during October. As a result, the unemployment rate hit a 58-month low during October,dropping to 6.23 percent from October 2012's rate of 7.35 percent. 


Establishment Survey: Colorado Employment Holds Steady in October

Historically, payroll employment tends to be flat during the third quarter, and we've seen that this year with total employment changing little from July to October. According to the Establishment Survey, released today by the BLS and the Colorado Dept. of Labor and Employment,  total nonfarm employment was at 2.37 million during October, which was similar to what we've seen since June. The first graph shows month-to-month totals.

 Total employment was up year over year, however, and in the second graph we see that for much of this year, year-over-year employment growth has exceeded 2 percent. This is well below what was seen during the dot-com boom, but compares well to the expansion of 2003-2007.  The percentage increase, however, has been slowly declining in recent months as job growth moderates. Employment grew 1.9 percent from October 2012 to October 2013.
 The Third graph shows a similar comparison, except this time, we're looking at totals payroll jobs instead of percentage change. In other words, the next graph shows us that the 1.9 percent year over year increase reflects a gain of 45,000 payroll jobs from October 2012 to October 2013. As with the percentage change, these gains have been moderating in recent months as well. There were 2.33 million jobs in October 2012 and 2.37 million in October 2013.


The last graph shows each month compared to the same month in previous years. In this case, we see that October 2013's payroll jobs were at an all-time high, and were above even the peak years of 2007 and 2008. October employment has been up each October form the previous October since 2008. 


Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Buildfax: September remodeling index up 9 percent

The Buildfax remodeling index for September showed a 9 percent increase, year-over-year for the U.S. West region. It was a moderate increase compared to other regions. 

According to the press release:

Residential remodels authorized by building permits in the United States in September were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3,145,000. This is flat from the revised August rate of 3,154,000 and is 14 percent above the September 2012 estimate of 2,747,000. 
Seasonally-adjusted annual rates of remodeling across the country in September 2013 are estimated as follows: Northeast, 678,000 (up 22% from August and up 12% from September 2012); South, 1,223,000 (down 3% from August and up 9% from September 2012); Midwest, 780,000 (down 3% from August and up 35% from September 2012); West, 746,000 (down 2% from August and up 9% from September 2012).

Mortgage rate up for third week in a row

According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the 30-year conventional mortgage rate rose to 4.35 as of November 14.  The rate was up from 4.16 measured during the previous week, but was still down from the most recent peak levels reached during September when rates hit above 4.5 percent.

Housing News Digest, November 20

REIT pays $54.8 million for Loveland MOBs A real estate investment trust strengthened its Colorado portfolio by acquiring two medical office buildings in Loveland for $54.8 million. The buildings are attached to either end of the Medical Center of the Rockies, a 166-bed University of Colorado Health hospital along Interstate 25 in Centerra. UCH occupies 75 percent of the space in the buildings, which comprise 150,291 square feet.

Investment banker Lutnick says Denver real-estate market to surge The outlook for continued low interest rates bodes well for commercial real estate markets in Colorado and nationwide, a leading investment-banking executive said Thursday in Denver. "There's so much liquidity in the market," said Howard Lutnick, CEO of New York-based Cantor Fitzgerald LP and affiliate BGC Partners. "It's great for real estate, great for assets." Lutnick was in Denver to deliver a keynote speech at the Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo.

Colorado seeking changes to its best economic development toolColorado’s Office of Economic Development and International Trade (OEDIT) is hoping to make changes to its job-growth incentive tax credit — viewed widely as the best economic-development tool offered by the state — that could make it more easily accessible to companies, especially those aiming to grow in Douglas and Broomfield counties.

  City for Champions plan revised; downtown Colorado Springs stadium now multi-sport venue A downtown stadium that's a critical component of Colorado Springs' City for Champions tourism proposal has been redesigned into a multi-sport venue - a major revision by the plan's backers as they vie for state funding. The downtown facility still could be a home for the Colorado Springs Sky Sox baseball team, as was envisioned in the original City for Champions proposal, said project spokesman Doug Price, president and CEO of the Colorado Springs Convention Visitors Bureau..


Federal judge questions whether Colorado's Rule 120 proceeding provides adequate due process for borrowers in foreclosure The basis of the borrower's challenge to the public trustee foreclosure sale, which gave rise to the preliminary injunction, was that the foreclosing bank lacked standing to foreclose because it did not produce the original promissory note secured by the deed of trust. In Colorado, certain "qualified holders," namely banks, savings and loan associations, credit unions, federal agencies and certain supervised lenders, are exempt from producing the original evidence of debt. Instead, all that is necessary is a statement signed by the qualified holder, or its attorney, stating that the qualified holder's interest is valid. Other non-qualified holders are required to present the original promissory note or other instrument secured by the deed of trust, including any endorsements and assignments thereof, to the public trustee prior to commencing a foreclosure.

Monday, November 18, 2013

New home sales moderate in West region during August

New single-family home sales in the U.S. West were down 22 percent from August 2012 to August 2013, coming in at 7,000 new homes for August 2013, and marked the second month in a row during which new home sales declined form the same month one year earlier. According to the most recent Census Bureau report on new home sales, new home sales grew, year over year through 2012 and during the first half of 2013. In July and August 2013, however, new home sales declined when compared year over year, showing that new home sales have moderated in the face of rising interest rates. 

The report, which monitors sales activity for newly constructed houses, showed that new home sales in the West remain down 81 percent from peak levels. 

The first graph shows monthly new home sales totals for each month since 2003. Although growth moderated during the summer of 2013, it is still clear that overall, 2013 has been a more active year in new home sales than any other year since 2009. 




For the West region: 



Comparing monthly totals, August stats were down compared to 2012, but were up compared to 2010 and 2011.Obviously, however, sales activity remains well below levels reported prior to 2009.

The number of new homes for sale, on the other hand was up 20 percent, rising from 30,000 during August 2012 to 36,000 during August 2013. This reflect growth in new home production, which we know has increased throughout the region, including Colorado, in response to significant growth in home prices during the first half of 2013.  

As a final note, we can also look to the new home inventory. In this case, we calculate inventory by subtracting the number of new home sales in a given month from the number of new homes for sale at the end of the previous month. We see in the graph that the inventory bottomed out in 2012, but has come up a little over the past year. Inventory hit a 20-month high during August 2013, rising to 26,000 which was the highest reported since January 2012, when the level was 20,000 homes in the inventory. Nevertheless, inventory in new homes remains very low. 




Census: Rental vacancy rates down in metro Denver and Colorado

According to the Census Bureau, the vacancy rate in Colorado fell year over year to 5.3 percent during the third quarter. During the third quarter of 2012, the vacancy rate was 6.4 percent.

In metro Denver, the vacancy rate also fell year over year, dropping to 4.1 percent from 2012's third-quarter rate of 4.6 percent.

Both metro Denver and Colorado vacancy rates were below the US vacancy rate of 8.3 percent. The first graph shows the vacancy rate in all three measures:


We see that the US vacancy rate has been above the Colorado and Denver rates since 2009. 

This survey measures both multifamily and single-family rental housing. The ongoing decline in vacancy is due to high demand for housing in general in Colorado and metro Denver, and is a product of fewer homes for sale, higher lending standards for home loans, and a limited amount of new single-family construction, all leading to more households substituting rental housing for purchase housing. Relatively strong job growth within metro Denver and northern Colorado has also continued to fuel high demand for rental housing. 

The second graph shows owner-occupant vacancy. This measure is of housing units that are vacant but are not rental units. We see that the vacancy in this type of unit is quite low, with Colorado and metro Denver again showing vacancy rates below the national rate: 


The metro Denver vacancy rate during the third quarter was 1.4 percent, and was us very slightly from the 2012 third quarter rate of 1.3 percent. This is not a significant change. 

In Colorado statewide, the vacancy rate was up insignificantly from 1.5 percent during the third quarter of 2012 to 1.6 percent during the third quarter of 2013. 

The US rate was 1.9 percent during the third quarter, and was unchanged from the third quarter of 2012. 

The Colorado Division of Housing's statewide vacancy and rent survey, which measures multifamily rental housing, will be released the week of November 18.

Friday, November 15, 2013

Homeownership rate falls to 8-year low in metro Denver during third quarter

According to the Census Bureau, the homeownership rate in metro Denver during the third quarter of 2013 fell to the lowest level recorded in any quarter since the bureau began tracking quarterly homeownership rates in 2005.

The decline in the rate was likely due not so much to households losing their homes (foreclosures have declined significantly in recent years) as it is due to a large number of new renters moving to the metro Denver area, and to fewer households buying homes, either by choice, or because they are unable.

The first graph shows the homeownership rate for metro Denver, Colorado, and the US:


We can see that in all three areas there has been a general decline since 2005.  While the metro Denver rate continued to decline, both the Colorado rate and the US rate inched up during the third quarter. All three areas were down when compared to the same quarter of last year. 

The homeownership rates for the third quarter were:
Metro Denver 60.4 percent
US 65.3 percent
Colorado 64.9 percent 

During the same period of last year, the rates were:
Metro Denver 61.8 percent
US 65.5 percent
Colorado 64.9 percent 

The second graph shows annual foreclosure rates back to 1984 for Colorado. We can see that overall, homeownership rates have been declining in both the US and Colorado for the past ten years. 


In recent years, growing numbers of renters, rising mortgage rates, lackluster wage growth, and rising home prices have all contributed to ongoing declines in the homeownership rate.

Housing News Digest, November 15

Colorado foreclosure filings drop to 2004 levels (Daily Camera/Denver Post)New foreclosure filings were down 46.1 percent in Colorado during the first nine months of 2013 compared to the first nine months of 2012, the Colorado Division of Housing reported on Thursday. That number, said the agency, dropped foreclosure filings in the state to 2004 levels. According to the report, there were 12,341 foreclosure filings reported from January through September of 2013, compared to 22,894 during the same period of last year.

 Colorado foreclosure filings headed to 9-year low (Loveland Reporter-Herald) Statewide, sales at auction declined 36.9 percent, from 12,143 in the first nine months of last year to 7,667 in the same period this year. In Larimer County, the drop was 40.8 percent, from 429 last year to 254 so far this year.

 Colorado foreclosure filings, sales down sharply (Denver Business Journal) New foreclosure filings in Colorado were down 46.1 percent through the first nine months of 2013 from the same period a year ago, and foreclosure auction sales dropped 36.9 percent, the Colorado Division of Housing reported Thursday.

 Colorado Floods Put Strain On Available Rental Housing September’s floods have increased the pressure on an already-tight rental housing market along Colorado’s Front Range. Even before the disaster forced many displaced home owners to seek rental housing, apartments were scarce and rents have been rising for several years. Vacancy rates are especially low in Boulder, Larimer and Weld Counties – with vacancies sometimes below three percent.

Colorado Springs-area foreclosures continued to decline in third quarter (CS Gazette)
Foreclosure filings in El Paso County, which includes Colorado Springs, totaled 458 in the third quarter, a 50.5 percent reduction from the same period a year ago. A foreclosure filing is the first step in the legal process that can result in the loss of a home or other property. In Teller County, which includes Woodland Park, filings totaled 36 in the third quarter, 18.2 percent fewer than a year ago.

Foreclosure sales - properties that went through the foreclosure process and were sold at a Public Trustee's auction - totaled 247 in the third quarter, a nearly 45 percent year-over-year decline. Sixteen properties were sold in Teller County in the third quarter, down 54.3 percent from last year.

September foreclosures drop to new low

September's monthly report on foreclosure is now available online. There is no press release for this report since we released statewide data for the third quarter, which includes September, this week. September's foreclosure filing's total was down 42 percent from September 2012, and foreclosure sales at auction were down 59.5 percent from September 2012. See the full report for details.

Overall, foreclosure activity continues to decline quickly, and September's foreclosure filings total was the lowest recorded in any month since the Division of Housing began tracking monthly statistics in 2007. Monthly totals:

 

Week of November 10: Mortgage rate rises to 4.16 percent

As of November 7, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors reports that the 30-year conventional mortage rate rose to 4.16 percent, which was up from 4.10 during the previous week, but was down from the most recent peak levels reached during September when rates hit above 4.5 percent.




Thursday, November 14, 2013

Colorado foreclosure filings drop to 2004 levels

Read the report here. 

New foreclosure filings were down 46.1 percent in Colorado during the first nine months of 2013, compared to the first nine months of 2012. According to a report released today by the Colorado Division of Housing, there were 12,341 foreclosure filings reported from January through September of 2013, compared to 22,894 during the same period of last year.

Foreclosure auction sales, or completed foreclosures, also fell significantly over the same period, dropping 36.9 percent from 2012’s January-September total of 12,143 to this year’s total of 7,667 for the same period. 


Both foreclosure filings and foreclosure auction sales during the third quarter of 2013 were at the lowest quarterly totals collected in any quarter since the Division of Housing began tracking quarterly totals in 2007.


“This foreclosure cycle has largely wound down,” said Ryan McMaken, economist for the Colorado Division of Housing. “We’re looking at a nine- or ten-year low in foreclosure totals for the year.”


All of the state’s twelve metropolitan counties reported year-over-year declines in both foreclosure filings totals and foreclosure auction sales totals for the first nine months of 2013, when compared to the same period of last year.  The counties with the largest declines in foreclosure filings were Douglas County and Broomfield County with drops of 53.4  percent and 51.4 percent, respectively.


Only three of the state’s 64 counties reported year-over-year increases in foreclosure filings so far this year, and they were smaller counties with fewer than 50 total foreclosure filings in each county.


When adjusted for population size, the counties with the highest foreclosure rates were all found outside the metropolitan areas. The top five counties for the proportion of homes that were in foreclosure during the third quarter were Grand, Sedgwick, Saguache, Lincoln, and San Juan counties.

“40 percent drops in foreclosure filings were typical all along the Front Range this past quarter,” McMaken said. “And the declines in foreclosures have been seen in every region of the state this year.”


Foreclosure sales are opened foreclosures that have proceeded through the full foreclosure process to final sale at public auction. Filings denote the beginning of the foreclosure process, and once a foreclosure is filed, the borrower has at least 110-120 days to work with the lender to avoid a completed foreclosure. It is during this period that borrowers work with lenders and housing counselors to work out loan modifications, short sales, or other ways of withdrawing the foreclosure. 


Tuesday, November 12, 2013

CDOH Seeks a new HQS Inspector

The Department of Local Affairs’ Division of Housing is pursuing a Housing Quality Standards (HQS) Inspector for their Housing Choice Voucher Program.  This position will be a 5-year contracted position with annual reviews.  The Division of Housing would like to invite all eligible candidates to submit a bid on the State’s Bidding System.  The bid will open on November 12, 2013 and will close at noon on November 19, 2013.  Posting of the bid and additional details can be found by clicking the link below:   


Monday, November 11, 2013

Metrolist: Metro Denver Home Sales up in October

According to last week's press release from Metrolist, home sales in the metro Denver area were up 13 percent from October 2012 to October 2013, up from 4,095 to 4,628.Average days on the market was also down from 66 days to 44 days over the same period. 
According to the release: 
Denver’s Hot Early Season Results in Lively Fall Housing Market 
DENVER – November 5, 2013 – The latest data from Metrolist reveals little change in several key areas from prior months, maintaining home prices and strong sales throughout the fall/winter months.
Home sales have cooled only slightly from mid-summer levels while inventory and pricing have stabilized. Nearly 5,000 homes sold in October, which was a slight 2 percent decrease from September, but remains at an unseasonably high number of homes sold at this time of year.
The average sold price of new and existing homes was unchanged from September, remaining just under $305,000. The average sold price of condos in the metro area is just under $200,000.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Slideshow: Colorado Springs Vacancies Down, Rents Up

As reported on Wednesday, the Colorado Springs vacancy rate during the third quarter remained tied at a 12-year low, and the average rent rose to a new all-time high for the second quarter in a row.

The first graph shows the vacancy rate for the Colorado Springs metro area since 1995.  The vacancy rate during the third quarter, at 5.4 percent, was tied with the second quarter at the lowest rate recorded since 2001.


 The second graph shows the vacancy rate for each of the regions of the metro area. The vacancy in the Security/Widefield/Fountain has headed back up in recent quarters, but all other quarters continue to head cluster around 5 percent vacancy.

The third graph shows the average rent for the Colorado Springs area. If we just eyeball it, we can see that the two biggest growth periods were the late 1990s and the period since 2009. The average rent during the third quarter hit the second all-time high in a row, reaching $830.
The same historical pattern holds for rent per square foot, not surprisingly. During the third quarter, the rent per square foot in Colorado Springs hit 1.01, which was the first time it exceeded $1.00. The rent per square foot was up 5.2 percent year over year form the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2013. 

The rent per square foot was up 5.2 percent year over year form the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2013, and we're now in a period of significant and sustained growth. 
 The average rent (not per square foot) was up 5.4 percent in the same year-over-year comparison. This was one of the largest year-over-year gains in recent years and rivals that which was seen during the end of the dot-com boom. The graph shows that the average rent has not gone down, year over, year since 2010.

The next graph shows the average rent for all the regions of the Colorado Springs. Notice how the average rent in the central region (the brown line) has accelerated upward since 2009. Solid demand for the area combined with limited supply have propelled rents upward. From the third quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2013, the average rent in the central region has increased from $513 to $837.

This next graph shows the average rent adjusted for inflation and compared to the inflation-adjusted average rent in metro Denver. Note that in both cases, rents were way up at the end of the dot-com boom and then fell in real terms for several years until heading back up in 2009. Metro Denver has more or less returned to peak levels, while Colorado Springs remains below its previous peak in real terms. 

The final graph shows that economic vacancy and rental losses due to concessions and delinquencies have fallen to decade-long lows, showing that effective rents are going up, and that the growth in average rent is not simply an artifact of promotional efforts. 

See the report for more detailed information. 

Delinquency Survey: Only six states have lower rates of serious mortgage delinquency

Serious mortgage delinquencies in Colorado were down for the eighth quarter in a row during the third quarter of 2013, and new 30-day delinquencies fell to the lowest point recorded during any third quarter since 2006.

30-day delinquencies during the third quarter of 2013 were down from the second quarter of the year, dropping to 2.21 percent. 2.21 percent is the lowest rate for new 30-day delinquencies since the first quarter of this year when the rate was 2.18 percent. During the third quarter of 2012, the 30-day delinquency rate was 2.44 percent.

The first graph shows 30-day delinquencies by quarter in Colorado since 2006:


The number of loans that were 90 days delinquent of more were down again in Colorado during the third quarter, falling to 1.47 percent of all loans surveyed. The 90-day delinquency rate during the third quarter of 2012 was 1.76 percent, and it was 1.49 percent during the second quarter of 2013. The second graph shows the percentage of mortgage loans that were at least 90 days delinquent in recent years. The 90-day delinquency rate has been falling consistently in Colorado since the fourth quarter of 2009.



The foreclosure inventory also fell during the third quarter of 2013 and has fallen for the past twelve quarters in a row. Colorado's foreclosure inventory dropped to 1.08 percent during the third quarter of 2013, falling from 2012's third quarter rate of 1.66 percent. The inventory was also down from 2013's second-quarter rate of 1.2 percent. The third graph shows the foreclosure inventory in Colorado and the US:



National Comparisons:

As can be seen in the second and third graphs, Colorado's foreclosure inventory and 90-day delinquency rates are well below the national rates. The U.S. 90-day delinquency rate during the third quarter of 2013 was 2.57 percent.

The U.S. foreclosure inventory rate was 3.08 percent during the third quarter of 2013.

Using the 90-day delinquency rate to compare Colorado to all other states, we find that Colorado had the seventh-lowest delinquency rate in the nation during the third quarter of 2013. The only states with lower 90-day delinquency rates were Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming and Alaska. During the second quarter, Colorado had the ninth-best rate of serious delinquency. The lowest 90-day delinquency rate in the nation was found in North Dakota where it was 0.54 percent, and the highest rate was found in New Jersey where it was 3.85 percent.

Delinquencies are measured by the MBA via surveys sent to major loans servicers. The MBA estimates it covers 88 percent of all first-lien residential mortgage loans outstanding in the US with the survey.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

CoreLogic: Colorado home price index up 9.2 percent


CoreLogic released its September home price index (HPI) numbers this week. The year-over-year change in September was 9.22 percent.  September marks the twenty-first month in a row of year-over-year gains in the home price index for Colorado. The national home price was again pulled upward by big home price growth in California, Arizona, and Nevada. Nationally, the index grew 12.0 percent from September 2012 to September 2013. Housing prices continue to increase at some of the largest rates seen since before the financial crisis. (These numbers are for all single-family homes, including distressed properties.) Growth rates since April have moderated at around 9.5 percent, but continues to show significant ongoing growth in home prices.


16 states had larger growth rates in the HPI than Colorado, with the highest growth rates being in Nevada, California, and Arizona. Nevada's HPI grew 25.3 percent year over year, and California's and Arizona 'a HPIs grew 22.4 percent and 14.6 percent respectively. No showed declines in their HPIs over the same period. 

Colorado Springs apartment vacancies hit 12-year low as rent hits all-time high

During the third quarter this year, the average apartment rent in the Colorado Springs metro area rose to an all-time high for the second quarter in a row while the apartment vacancy rate remained tied at the lowest rate reported since the third quarter of 2001.

According to a report released today by the Colorado Division of Housing and the Apartment Association of Southern Colorado, the average rent in the Colorado Springs metro area rose year over year for the fifteenth quarter in a row during the third quarter, climbing 5.4 percent to $830. The third-quarter average rent was up from $787 reported during the third quarter of 2012, and was up from this year’s second-quarter average rent of $807.  

The average rent increased year over year in all regions surveyed. The largest increase in the average rent for any region of the Colorado Springs area was found in the Central region where the average rent increased 12.2 percent from $746 during the third quarter of last year to $837 during the same period of this year.  The Far Northeast region also reported a sizable increase in the average rent, with an increase of 8.4 percent from $851 during the third quarter of last year to $923 during the third quarter of this year.

Average rents for all market areas during the third quarter of this year were: Northwest, $910; Northeast, $789; Far Northeast, $923, Southeast, $729; Security/Widefield/Fountain, $632; Southwest, $815; Central, $837.       

“Year-over-year rent growth hit an 18-month high during the third quarter reflecting some improvements in employment and general strength in demand for all types of housing," said Ryan McMaken, economist for the Colorado Division of Housing. 

The apartment vacancy rate in the Colorado Springs metro area fell year over year to 5.4 percent during the third quarter of 2013, falling from last year’s third-quarter rate of 6.1 percent. This year’s third quarter vacancy rate was unchanged from the second quarter to the third quarter.

"Some apartment investors are looking more closely at the Colorado Springs market as an alternative to the Denver market which some now see as overheated," said Kevin McKenna, a vice president with apartment brokerage firm ARA. "We're only now starting to see some of the low vacancy rates that have been seen in Denver for more than a year now." 

From the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2013, the vacancy rate fell in the Northwest, Northeast, Far Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest submarkets. During the same period, the vacancy rate rose in the Central region and the Secuirity/Widefield/Fountain region.  The region with the highest vacancy rate was Security/Widefield/Fountain at 10.1 percent, and the region with the lowest vacancy rate was the Southwest region at 3.8 percent.

"Last year was one of the best years in Colorado Springs in a long time, but things have slowed a little this year," McKenna said. "But there are still few signs of any overbuilding at this point, so rents and occupancy will likely continue to be strong from the owners' perspective, for the time being." 

Vacancy rates for all market areas during the third quarter were: Northwest, 5.4 percent; Northeast, 3.9 percent; Far Northeast, 7.0 percent, Southeast, 6.2 percent; Security/Widefield/Fountain, 10.1 percent; Southwest, 3.8 percent; Central, 5.3 percent.


Coldwell Banker: Average Home Prices in Colorado Towns

Coldwell Banker's 2013 Home Listings Report lists average home prices in a variety of Colorado cities and towns.

The second-to-right column shows the average price for Coldwell Banker listings from Jan 2013 to June 2013.

The far-right column shows the ranking of the town, out of 1997 locations. So, Breckenridge's rank of 1987 means that only ten areas surveyed showed higher average prices than Breckenridge.



Friday, November 1, 2013

Total number of mortgages in Colorado continues to decline

The MBA delinquency report, in addition to foreclosure and delinquency numbers (see our coverage of the report here) also covers total mortgage loans being serviced in the state.

The first graph shows that the total number of mortgages has declined from its peak of 1,020,000 during the third quarter of 2007, to a total of 940,000 during the second quarter of 2013. That's a decline of 7.8 percent.

We also see that the total number of mortgages serviced has generally declined since 2007, and really started to fall by late 2011. Total mortgages did start to increase again during the first half of 2013 as foreclosure filings declined by 50 percent and low interest rates continued to spur more loans.

The totals provided by the MBA report also allowed us to analyze how much of the foreclosure  inventory was actually going to final foreclosure sale during a given quarter. In the second graph, I've graphed the proportion. I've taken the total number of mortgages in the foreclosure inventory and compared them to the total number of foreclosure sales:

We find that in 2007, lenders were moving forward very aggressively with foreclosures and than more than 40 percent of the foreclosure inventory went to foreclosure sale in some quarters. Since 2008, however, less than 25 percent of the foreclosure inventory has gone to final foreclosure each quarter.

Corelogic: Colorado has 6th-lowest rate of series delinquencies among all states

According to Corelogic's national foreclosure report, released today, 2.3 percent of mortgages in Colorado were seriously delinquent during September 2013. Only five states reported lower delinquency rates, including North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Alaska, and Wyoming. 

The states with the highest delinquency rates were Florida, New Jersey, and Nevada. 

According to the report, Colorado had the third-smallest foreclosure inventory in the nation at 0.7 percent of all loans in foreclosure. Only Alaska and Wyoming reported smaller foreclosure inventories. Colorado was tied with Nebraska and North Dakota.

The report also measured foreclosure information for larger metro areas, including Denver-Aurora-Broomfield.

The Denver area showed the smallest foreclosure inventory of all the metro areas measured, and also showed the lowest rate of serious delinquency for all metro areas.

If we compare this Corelogic report to the MBA's second quarter 2013 report, we see that in the MBA report, Colorado has the ninth-lowest rate for 90-day delinquencies. So, Colorado is also near the bottom in the number of seriously-delinquent loans in that report as well. 

Although completed foreclosures continue at a significant pace in the state, according to our statewide report, the number is nevertheless way down from peak years and 2012, dropping 60 percent, year over year, through August.