Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Case-Shiller: Home prices growth in Denver begins to lag national growth

According to Case-Shiller, the home price index in the metro area rose 9.5 percent in October, falling to the lowest year-over-year increase in the index since January 2013, but continuing a 22 mmonth trend in year-over-year growth. The first graph shows the year-over-year increase in the index for each month since 2006:

In October, the Denver metro index rose to 146.78 October, which was down 0.3 percent from the peak reached during September 2013. Much of this month-to-month decline was down due to seasonal factors, and the second graph shows that the index had been hitting several new all-time highs in recent months. The index was 134.03 during October of last year. 

The third graph shows the Denver metro index along side the 20-city composite index. We can see that the 20-city index remains above the metro Denver index, which has been the case since 2002, and we see that the two indices are following a similar trajectory in recent months. 

We see in the last graph, however, that the growth rate in the 20-city composite has outpaced that of metro Denver in recent months. The larger index has been propelled upward by big growth rates in Los Vegas, and big cities in California. The growth rate has leveled off in metro Denver, but continues to grow in the 20-city index. Nonetheless, the growth rates in metro Denver in recent months have been quite larger, and we must go back to 2001 to see similar growth rates here.