Friday, November 29, 2013

Case-Shiller: September home price index for metro Denver up 9.9 percent

The Case-Shiller index was up in metro Denver, year over year, for the 21st month in a row, rising to 147.3. In August, the year over year change was 10 percent.

The index rose to 146.3, which was the highest index number ever reported.  The first graph shows the index has exceeded even the peak reached during the 2003-2007 housing boom:

The next graph shows the metro Denver index next to the 20-city composite index. We can see that the metro Denver area did not see a bubble to the same degree as the composite index. In recent months, however, Denver appears to be following a trajectory similar to that of the larger index: 

The third graph shows year over year changes for both metro Denver and the 20-city composite index. For much of 2010, Denver was outpacing the overall index, but in recent months, the larger index has pulled ahead in terms of growth rates. The Denver index's year over year growth turned positive before the 20-city index, and has remained positive longer. 

The final graph shows in more detail the year over year change in the metro Denver index. We can see that the growth rate is at the highest level seen since at least 2006. In fact, we have to go back to August 2001 to find a year over year growth rate that is as high as September 2013. Clearly, home prices continue on an upward trajectory in the face of continued inflows of new residents, low interest rates, and a stable employment situation in the area.