Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Case-Shiller: metro Denver home prices in April head back near peak levels

Case-Shiller released its home price index for April 2013 last week. The home price index for the Denver area rose 1.8 percent percent from March to April, and rose 9.9  percent, year over year, from April 2012 to April 2013.  The year-over-year increase in April was the sixteenth year-over-year increase in a row for Denver.

The first chart shows trends in the Case-Shiller index for the Denver area and for the 20-city composite index. It is clear that Denver did not experience the kind of price bubble that occurred in many other metropolitan areas, and consequently, the index has not fallen nearly as far in Denver compared to the larger composite. The metro Denver index value is at the highest value seen since 2006.

As of April, the 20-city composite is down 26 percent since it peaked in July 2006, but the Denver index is down only 1.4 percent from its August 2006 peak.

The second chart compares year-over-year changes in the Denver area index and in the 20-city composite. Overall, the index has been less volatile in Denver than has been the case for the 20-city composite. The year-over-year change in the 20-city composite during December was positive for the eleventh month in a row.

After many months of higher growth rates in Denver than in the 20-city index, the Denver index was surpassed in March 2013 as the 20-city index YOY growth rate rose to 10.9 percent. The composite index growth rate remained higher than Denver's growth rate in April, growing 12.0 percent, compared to Denver's 9.9 percent.