Thursday, March 28, 2013

FHFA: Fourth quarter home prices up in all metros except Pueblo and Grand Junction

The House Price Index (HPI) rose from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the same period of 2012 in every Colorado metro area except Pueblo and Grand Junction. The areas showing increases in the HPI included Boulder, Denver-Aurora, Colorado Springs, Greeley, and the Ft. Collins-Loveland area.

The fourth-quarter HPI data, released last month by the Federal Housing Finance Agency for hundreds of metropolitan areas nationwide, showed the largest year-over-year decline in the home price index for Pueblo since 2011. The areas with the largest increases in home prices, according to the index, were the Boulder area, the Greeley area, and the Denver area.

Statewide, the Colorado home price index was up year over year. (See the analysis here.)

Year over year, the 1-year changes in each metro area were:
Boulder +2.1%
Colo Springs +0.5%
Denver-Aurora +3.7%
Fort Coll-Loveland +1.6%
Grand Junction -0.2%
Greeley +2.4%
Pueblo -2.8%

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in each region for each quarter. For the sake of visual clarity, the graph only shows data back only to 2006.

Over the past four quarters, growth in the home price index have become increasingly common, with southern and western Colorado lagging other areas. For metro areas overall, there is now a trend of growth in the home price index, however, Grand Junction and Pueblo have consistently shown some decreases in the index recent quarters.

The second graph shows the actual HPI values for each quarter going back to 2000. In general, the HPI began to plateau during 2007 and was declining in most areas by 2008. A big exception in the Grand Junction area which continued to increase rapidly well into 2008.

Since the peak period of the first quarter of 2007, the HPI has fallen in all regions. The following shows the change in the HPI compared to the peak period, as of the fourth quarter of 2012.

Boulder -0.9%
Colo Springs -9.4%
Denver-Aurora -2.6%
Fort Coll-Loveland -1.2%
Grand Junction -24.3%
Greeley -12.8%
Pueblo -9.9%

This latest report overall shows a continuation of earlier trends shows in this report. The most rapidly recovering markets are those markets with the strongest job growth: Metro Denver and Northern Colorado.   Colorado Springs, Pueblo, and Grand Junction are facing some of the highest unemployment rates in Colorado, and now surprisingly show some of the weakest growth (or they show declines) in the home price index.

See here for other home price indices.

The index values presented and analyzed in this article are not seasonally adjusted. The data in this article is taken from the FHFA "all-transactions" data. The index is based on home price data obtained through the GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac