Thursday, December 6, 2012

FHFA: Pueblo home prices fall, all other metros rise

The House Price Index (HPI) rose from the third quarter of 2011 to the same period this year in every Colorado metro area except Pueblo. The areas showing increases in the HPI included Boulder, Denver-Aurora, Colorado Springs, Grand Junction, Greeley, and the Ft. Collins-Loveland area.

The third-quarter HPI data, released last week by the Federal Housing Finance Agency for hundreds of metropolitan areas nationwide, showed a year over year increase in Grand Junction for the first time since 2008, and a small increase in Colorado Springs after numerous quarters of declines. The areas with the largest increases in home prices, according to the index, were the Ft. Collins-Loveland area, the Greeley area, and the Denver area.

Statewide, the Colorado home price index was up year over year. (See the analysis here.)

Year over year, the 1-year changes in each metro area were:
Boulder +1.9%
Colo Springs +0.9%
Denver-Aurora +2.8%
Fort Coll-Loveland +3.6%
Grand Junction +0.4%
Greeley +2.8%
Pueblo -1.4%

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in each region for each quarter. For the sake of visual clarity, the graph only shows data back only to 2008.

Over the past three quarter, growth in the home price index have become increasingly common, with southern and western Colorado lagging other areas.

-Grand Junction and Pueblo have consistently shown some of the largest decreases in recent years.

The second graph shows the actual HPI values for each quarter going back to 2000. In general, the HPI began to plateau during 2007 and was declining in most areas by 2008. A big exception in the Grand Junction area which continued to increase rapidly well into 2008.

Since the peak period of the first quarter of 2007, the HPI has fallen in all regions. The following shows the change in the HPI compared to the peak period, as of the third quarter of 2012.

Boulder _1.6
Colo Springs -10.2
Denver-Aurora -3.6
Fort Coll-Loveland -0.01
Grand Junction -25.7
Greeley -13.5
Pueblo -11.1

This latest report overall shows a continuation of earlier trends shows in this report. The most rapidly recovering markets are those markets with the strongest job growth: Metro Denver and Northern Colorado.   Colorado Springs, Pueblo, and Grand Junction are facing some of the highest unemployment rates in Colorado.

See here for other home price indices.

The index values presented and analyzed in this article are not seasonally adjusted. The data in this article is taken from the FHFA "all-transactions" data. The index is based on home price data obtained through the GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.