Thursday, September 20, 2012

FHFA: Home prices down again in Colo. Springs, Pueblo and Grand Junction

The House Price Index (HPI) rose from the second quarter of 2011 to the same period this year in every Colorado metro area except Colorado Springs, Pueblo and Grand Junction. The areas showing increases in the HPI included Boulder, Denver-Aurora, Greeley, and the Ft. Collins-Loveland area.

The second-quarter HPI data, released last month by the Federal Housing Finance Agency for hundreds of metropolitan areas nationwide, shows continued declines in southern and western Colorado. Prices in Colorado Springs, Pueblo and Grand Junction have fallen, year over year, in each quarter since early 2011.

Statewide, the Colorado home price index was up year over year. (See the analysis here.)

Year over year, the 1-year changes in each metro area were:
Boulder +1.4%
Colo Springs -0.4%
Denver-Aurora +0.1%
Fort Coll-Loveland +1.4%
Grand Junction -2.7%
Greeley +2.0%
Pueblo -2.8%

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in each region for each quarter. For the sake of visual clarity, the graph only shows data back only to 2008.

Since the fourth quarter of 2008, the year-over-year changes have been generally negative. The graph also shows us that:

-Grand Junction and Pueblo have consistently shown some of the largest decreases in recent years.

-The Ft Collins-Loveland area has tended to show the smallest decreases in recent years, and together with Boulder shows some of the largest increases in recent quarters.

The second graph shows the actual HPI values for each quarter going back to 2005. In general, the HPI began to plateau during 2007 and was declining in most areas by 2008. A big exception in the Grand Junction area which continued to increase rapidly well into 2008.

Since the peak period of the first quarter of 2007, the HPI has fallen in all regions. The following shows the change in the HPI compared to the peak period, as of the second quarter of 2012.

Boulder -2.5
Colo Springs -11.9
Denver-Aurora -4.1
Fort Coll-Loveland -2.4
Grand Junction -20.3
Greeley -14.0
Pueblo -13.1

This latest report overall shows a continuation of earlier trends shows in this report. Home prices continue to grow in metro Denver and northern Colorado, while prices are falling in southern Colorado and the Grand Junction area. That makes sense economically since Colorado Springs, Pueblo, and Grand Junction are facing some of the highest unemployment rates in Colorado. This report shows home price growth to be somewhat weaker than is being seen in other reports such as CoreLogic and Case-Shiller where growth is exceeding 5 percent in recent months.The Colorado Association of Realtors data shows less home price growth in the Colorado Springs area than in the Denver metro area.

The index values presented and analyzed in this article are not seasonally adjusted. The data in this article is taken from the FHFA "all-transactions" data. The index is based on home price data obtained through the GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.