Thursday, September 20, 2012

FHFA: Colorado home prices up 6 percent during 2nd Q

Colorado's House Price (Expanded-Data) Index (HPI), measured by the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA), rose 6.0 percent from the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012. According to the second-quarter 2012 HPI, released last month by FHFA, the home price index for Colorado, in year-over-year comparisons, has risen for the second time since the end of the homebuyer tax credits, and it has risen for only the fifth time since 2007. Nevertheless, the second quarter's increase was the largest year-over-year increase since the fourth quarter of 2001.

The Colorado HPI is now down 9.9 percent from the peak in the state's HPI which was reached during the third quarter of 2006. The national index is down 22.4 percent from its peak, which it also reached during the third quarter of 2006.

The HPI for the United States rose 2.4 percent from the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, and until the second quarter, the national HPI had not shown a year-over-year increase since the first quarter of 2007.

The first graph shows the Colorado HPI compared to the US HPI since 2001. Since the peak period, the US HPI has fallen farther than the Colorado index. The Colorado index turned up significantly during the second quarter of this year. 

In this index, the US price index can be described as more "bubble-like" than the Colorado index which did not experience a run up in prices to the same degree as was the case in the national index. Although Colorado's index is higher, the index value increased much more from 2001 to the peak nationally than in Colorado. From 2001 to the third quarter of 2006, the national HPI increased 51 percent, while it only increased 23 percent in Colorado. In turn, the correction has been more severe nationally.

In the second graph is shown the year-over-year change in the HPI for both Colorado and the US. This more fully shows to what degree the HPI has fallen in recent year for both Colorado and the US. The national HPI has fallen farther -or increased less- than the Colorado HPI in every quarter since the second quarter of 2007.

Overall, this index suggests that, since 2007, overall home prices in Colorado have been more resilient than has been the case nationally.The acceleration in home prices reflected in the second quarter's 6 percent increase reinforces perceptions of an increasing growth trend in home prices in Colorado, and this FHFA data shows similar trends to what has been found in Case-Shiller and Corelogic home price data.

The index values presented and analyzed in this article are not seasonally adjusted.

Note: During the second quarter of 2011, the Federal Housing and Finance Agency released, for the first time, its Expanded-Data House Price Index. The new index is "Estimated using Enterprise, FHA, and Real Property County Recorder Data Licensed from DataQuick[.]"

In other words, the data source is much more broad than the old index which relied only on GSE information.

However, at the metro-are level, we'll still need to rely on the older GSE-data index until FHFA expands its new index into the metro areas.