Colorado's House Price (Expanded-Data) Index (HPI), measured by the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA), rose 2.2 percent from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012. According to the first quarter 2012 HPI, released last month by FHFA, the home price index for Colorado, in year-over-year comparisons, has risen for the first time since the end of the homebuyer tax credits, and it has risen for only the fourth time since 2007.
Colorado HPI is now down 15.4 percent from the peak in the state's HPI
which was reached during the third quarter of 2006. The national index
is down 26 percent from its peak, which it also reached during the
third quarter of 2006.
The HPI for the United States
fell 1.2 percent from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter
of 2012, and the national HPI has not shown a year-over-year increase
since the first quarter of 2007.
The first graph shows
the Colorado HPI compared to the US HPI since 2001. Since the peak
period, the US HPI has fallen farther than the Colorado index.
this index, the US price index can be described as slightly more
"bubble-like" than the Colorado index which did not experience a run up
in prices to the same degree as was the case in the national index.
Although Colorado's index is higher, the index value increased much more
from 2001 to the peak nationally than in Colorado. From 2001 to the
third quarter of 2006, the national HPI increased 51 percent, while it
only increased 23 percent in Colorado. In turn, the correction has been
more severe nationally.
In the second graph is shown
the year-over-year change in the HPI for both Colorado and the US. This
more fully shows to what degree the HPI has fallen in recent year for
both Colorado and the US. The national HPI has fallen farther than the Colorado HPI in every
quarter since the second quarter of 2007.
The index values presented and analyzed in this article are not seasonally adjusted.
During the second quarter of 2011, the Federal Housing and Finance
Agency released, for the first time, its Expanded-Data House Price
Index. The new index is "Estimated using Enterprise, FHA, and Real
Property County Recorder Data Licensed from DataQuick[.]"
In other words, the data source is much more broad than the old index which relied only on GSE information.
at the metro-are level, we'll still need to rely on the older GSE-data
index until FHFA expands its new index into the metro areas.