Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Condo sales rise in Metro Denver, statewide

Condo and townhome sales were up in metro Denver, the Pikes Peak area and statewide during  March 2012. According to the condo sales index, based on a three-month moving average, March 2012's sales total was at a two-year high in both Metro Denver and statewide.  March 2012's sales total was up 4 percent statewide, compared to March 2011, while metro Denver's March 2012 sales total was up 5.9 percent compared to March 2011.

March's totals, however, were below 2010 levels in both cases.

The first graph shows that condo and townhome sales activity has been slightly down over the past twelve months when compared to the same period for 2010. The recent decline is quite small, however, compared to the drops we saw from 2008 to 2009.

In the Pikes Peak area, condo and townhome sales are up from 2009  and 2011 levels, but have shown signs of stalling in recent months.

We can remove seasonal effects by using a 12-month moving average which will give us a good view of multi-year trends:

This recent growth trend in statewide and metro Denver sales is reinforced in the 12-month moving averages used to track trends in home sales.The third graph shows the 12-month moving averages in total condo and townhome sales in metro Denver and statewide. The overall trends since 2007 is clearly downward, although average statewide sales have largely stabilized since late 2009. Until recently, the moving average for condo and townhome sales had continued to move downward through late 2010 and most of 2011, but there have been numerous small increases in recent months.

The fourth graph shows year-over-year changes in the 12-month condo and townhome sales average. The moving average in statewide sales increased 4.9 percent, which was the largest year-over-year increase since September 2010.  The metro Denver average rose 2.4 percent and was the largest year over year increase for metro Denver since August 2010.

In the Pikes peak region, the trend is still downward, and following the end of the homebuyer tax credit, we have seen 12 months in a row during which the the 12-month moving average in condo and townhome sales have been down from the year prior. Although March numbers indicated some growth over 2011, there has not yet been enough growth in sales activity to be reflected in the 12-month average. In the 12-month average, condo sales were down 13 percent, year over year, in March 2012.