Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Colo. Springs condo sales fall again, metro Denver and statewide condo sales rise

Condo sales transactions in metro Denver and statewide were up from 2011 during April, but remained down from 2010 totals. Statewide, the condo home sales index was up 0.1 percent in April 2012 compared to April 2011, while in metro Denver, the condo sales index was up 4.6 percent.

The first graph shows that condo and townhome sales activity has been very slightly up from 2011's lows. The trend was almost continually downward from 2006 through 2011.

In the Pikes Peak area, condo sales have rather oddly flattened out, and have not followed the usual cyclical patterns in recent months. The condo sales index for April 2012 was down 2.4 percent from April 2011 and suggests a rather stagnant market in condo sales in the region.

We can remove seasonal effects by using a 12-month moving average which will give us a good view of multi-year trends:

This recent growth trend in statewide and metro Denver sales is reinforced in the 12-month moving averages used to track trends in home sales.The third graph shows the 12-month moving averages in total condo and townhome sales in metro Denver and statewide. The overall trend since 2007 is clearly downward, although average statewide sales have largely stabilized since late 2009. Until recently, the moving average for condo and townhome sales had continued to move downward through late 2010 and most of 2011, but there have been numerous small increases in recent months.

The 12-month moving average for Denver has flattened out over the past six months, and the statewide average has declined slightly in recent months. However, year-over-year changes remain positive over the past three months for both areas.

The fourth graph shows year-over-year changes in the 12-month condo and townhome sales average. The moving average in statewide sales increased 5.3 percent, which was the largest year-over-year increase since September 2010.  The metro Denver average rose 5.1 percent and was the largest year over year increase for metro Denver since June 2010.

In the Pikes peak region, the trend is still downward, and following the end of the homebuyer tax credit, we have seen 13 months in a row during which the the 12-month moving average in condo and townhome sales have been down from the year prior. April's decline in the condo-sales index is reflected in the 12-month average here as condo sales activity fell again. In the 12-month average, condo sales were down 12.6 percent, year over year, in April 2012.

The condo-sale index is a 3-month moving average of condo and townhome sales transactions (closings).