Monday, November 29, 2010

House prices fall in most recent Fannie and Freddie data

The Federal Housing and Finance Agency today released its 3rd quarter 2010 report on home prices. FHFA’s House Price Index (HPI) provides home price information for Colorado and seven of its metropolitan areas based on conventional loan data obtained through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

According to the report, Colorado’s HPI fell 3.2 percent during from the second quarter to the third quarter of this year, and fell 2.9 percent year-over-year from the third quarter of last year to the third quarter of this year.

With a drop of 3.2 percent from the second quarter, it is the largest quarterly drop since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the HPI fell 3.8 percent from the previous corner.

The year-over-year change was also the largest since the fourth quarter of 2008 when the HPI fell 4.0 percent year over year from the third quarter of the previous year.

The first chart shows that Colorado has now fallen below zero for two quarters in a row when comparing the HPI with the previous year. The chart also shows, however, that Colorado’s HPI has been more stable than the national HPI in recent quarters, with YOY changes rarely exceeding more than a 2 percent since the first quarter of last year.

The national HPI fell more than the Colorado HPI following the beginning of the national recession, and the US HPI has yet to show a positive YOY change since the third quarter of 2007.

The second chart shows that since the HPI in both Colorado and the US peaked in the second quarter of 2007, Colorado’s HPI has fallen by 6.2 percent, but the US HPI has fallen by more than 13.9 percent.

Overall, the data suggests that house prices in Colorado are more stable and have recovered more completely than is the case nationwide.

The last chart shows the FHFA’s data for seven metropolitan areas of Colorado. All metro areas except Grand Junction and Greeley show very small changes in the year-over-year comparisons.

Greeley’s home prices continue to experience significant downward pressure, likely as a result of ongoing foreclosure issues. Only recently, has Weld County begun to stabilize in foreclosure activity according to State of Colorado foreclosure data.

Grand Junction’s recent declines in home prices have not been enough to erase previous gains occurring in the past five years.